earthlight Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hour 36 winding down. 1-2" or 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS been handling these northern streamers well all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1-3" per QPF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hour 36 winding down. 1-2" or 2-4". No areas of .25"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 0.15" at 15:1 is 2.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Huge pet peeve with those forecasts because that's a huge difference when you're talking delays, cancellations, and other issues. There's even more discrepancy when we see 5-10, 6-12, 10/12-18, and various other ranges. It reminds me of when they made fun of March 2001 with the potential for 3 to 33 inches of snow. Lower the range as more information comes about and we get closer to a storm. On LI this year our two largest storms gave us a range of 6 - 12" of snow. So in those cases what would be wrong with such a wide ranging forecast of 6 - 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs continues its drier trend- .34 to .18 now .11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs continues its drier trend- .34 to .18 now .11 True, and still can get 1", 2" or 3" if model equals reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wait so one guy says juiced and moderate snow...yet someone else posts the gfs cut back to .11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's too bad the trough is so sheared out. If it were more consolidated it could have been a nice event. 1-3" is still nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wait so one guy says juiced and moderate snow...yet someone else posts the gfs cut back to .11 Yep. Well, "juiced" and "moderate" are kind of ... subjective descriptions? .11 is a little more objective. Depends upon what you want to use as your information, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yep. Well, "juiced" and "moderate" are kind of ... subjective descriptions? .11 is a little more objective. Depends upon what you want to use as your information, I suppose. That can still be 1-3" with decent ratios. I'd say that's a good guess for now. Maybe it can enhance a little more with the model runs tonight/tomorrow. But the trough looks too sheared out for this to be of much consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1-3 to freshen up snowpack, sure, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1-3 to freshen up snowpack, sure, I'll take it. Hey man. What time does it start how much in MC and when does it end ? JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hey man. What time does it start how much in MC and when does it end ? JK Cute LOL Now I want to hear Mikehobbyist comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Cute LOL Ha. I had to get that in there once my man . I'm pretty confident there's more than 1 tomorrow. I really like 3 area wide. But we will see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Huge pet peeve with those forecasts because that's a huge difference when you're talking delays, cancellations, and other issues. There's even more discrepancy when we see 5-10, 6-12, 10/12-18, and various other ranges. It reminds me of when they made fun of March 2001 with the potential for 3 to 33 inches of snow. Lower the range as more information comes about and we get closer to a storm.It may be easy for you to criticize these forecasts but the fact is that many times a lot depends on where exactly the heavier bands set up as they can create large ranges over short distances, and it is very difficult to predict where exactly they will set up ahead of time. It's better to prepare people for all possibilities than to catch them off guard.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is a lock for 1"+, 18z GEFS 0.10 to 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It'll probably 2 or 3 just remembering that front with the SW winds that delivered an inch and a half with less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 When I say juiced, I expected the QPF totals to amount to more based on what the hourly panels showed. Also to be fair some areas are well above the 0.11" for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 On LI this year our two largest storms gave us a range of 6 - 12" of snow. So in those cases what would be wrong with such a wide ranging forecast of 6 - 12". I had 3 8"+ storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nothing is lock with this. 00z can still bump things up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nothing is lock with this. 00z can still bump things up again. I said 1+" is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I said 1+" is a lock Could still go either way and be less. For MBY I'm anticipating 1.4" 12:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I like a general one inch with underacheivers and overacheivers around the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deguy50 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I like a general one inch with underacheivers and overacheivers around the area agree 1 inch be happy anymore is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It may be easy for you to criticize these forecasts but the fact is that many times a lot depends on where exactly the heavier bands set up as they can create large ranges over short distances, and it is very difficult to predict where exactly they will set up ahead of time. It's better to prepare people for all possibilities than to catch them off guard. Sent from my iPhone Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Srefs .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I like a general one inch with underacheivers and overacheivers around the area I agree. No crazy banding with this one, so in general I think it's around an inch. Maybe some maxes at 2" and minimum areas of 1/2". Higher probably by elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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