Kevin Reilly Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If I were you guys up there wouldn't get too excited that is right over my area here in Media, Delaware County and none of it is hitting the ground cloudy here and you can see the sun faintly through the high clouds 29 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The euro gives much of the area 1/2" of snow, NW areas up to 1"....so i definitely would stick to my call of around an inch. At this point, there really is nothing to support a 2-4" snowfall, and not really a 1-3" snowfall. For NYC/NE NJ, the euro is 1/2". The RGEM is 1/2". The GFS is around 1". The NAM is barely 1/2". A coating to an inch would be a good call, though I think the euro is underdone just a tad and we do get an inch here. Overall, just a little of the white to freshen up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This could be one of those snowfall events where it could overperform, but chances of that is low ATM. Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The euro gives much of the area 1/2" of snow, NW areas up to 1"....so i definitely would stick to my call of around an inch. At this point, there really is nothing to support a 2-4" snowfall, and not really a 1-3" snowfall. A coating to an inch would be a good call, though I think the euro is underdone just a tad and we do get an inch here. Overall, just a little of the white to freshen up I would lean towards the GFS nam and RGEM on QPF thr euro has been very bad on QPF on northern stream dominant events all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The euro gives much of the area 1/2" of snow, NW areas up to 1"....so i definitely would stick to my call of around an inch. At this point, there really is nothing to support a 2-4" snowfall, and not really a 1-3" snowfall. A coating to an inch would be a good call, though I think the euro is underdone just a tad and we do get an inch here. Overall, just a little of the white to freshen up WRONG, 4km NAM, GFS, and GEFS is 0.1 to 0.25 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I would lean towards the GFS nam and RGEM on QPF thr euro has been very bad on QPF on northern stream dominant events all yearYep I agree....in this case though the euro's 1/2" is supported by pretty much all of the other models, although the SREF, GFS, and hi-res NAM are about 1". To be honest, this is one of those events that I think barely deserves a thread and will be remembered as just a little snow that we wipe away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's a weather bell image In looking closer, still not sure I see where a 1011 low throws much back. Precip is over by 4AM Monday and if you at that site's "Total Accumulated Precipitation" sequence, it doesn't appear to me to add any precip over NYC after 6z on Monday. call me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I like the high res better at this range sref .25 Rgem .20. 4k nam looks good. Soundings suggest 12 to 15 to 1. I like 2 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How are the SREFs looking My SRES cities are showing KBLM .21. KNYC .28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How are the SREFs looking My SRES cities are showing KBLM .21. KNYC .28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 get_orig_img.php.gif[/quoteThank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This thread is a mess...hemming and hawing over a one inch event....why is wishcasting allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Latest SREF mean is about 2 inches for the region so 1-3" is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 get_orig_img.php.gif[/quoteThank you My pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Most overhyped storm since march 00 Is anyone even going to notice an inch of fluff when it's like the arctic out there already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nam supports 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM RGEM SREF are all .2. Soundings support 15 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I've always hated the 1"-3" forecast. That's a huge percentage difference. And 1" is generally just a nuisance, unless it happens in a squall. But 3" can be a fairly high impact event. I think forecasters should try to stick to narrower ranges. If they bust, they bust. But in the long run they are going to be giving a more accurate indication of what they expect. Soundings look pretty cold aloft. But I still wouldn't go higher than 12 or 13: 1. Too many times it just doesn't work out to go higher, even when everything seems lined up. The 12z CMC and Euro were pretty dry, so I'm thinking .1 - .15" QPF. That works out to a forecast of 1"-2" of snow. Based on 18z and 0z data, I would consider changing that expectation... possibly to 2"-3" if guidance trends a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This thread is a mess...hemming and hawing over a one inch event....why is wishcasting allowed R sure it's an inch? Or are you wishcasting an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 R sure it's an inch? Or are you wishcasting an inch? Chance of 5-10 flakes with possible higher amounts of snowflakes S. of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Scattered flurries here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Scattered flurries here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. I confirm. In the WOW parking lot in Marlboro flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This thread is a mess...hemming and hawing over a one inch event....why is wishcasting allowed Yep. Glad the mods cleaned up some of the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NWS 1 - 4" is good call for my area as these clipper lows can have sneaky enhanced precip over East central jersey as the weak low developes off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I've always hated the 1"-3" forecast. That's a huge percentage difference. And 1" is generally just a nuisance, unless it happens in a squall. But 3" can be a fairly high impact event. I think forecasters should try to stick to narrower ranges. If they bust, they bust. But in the long run they are going to be giving a more accurate indication of what they expect. Soundings look pretty cold aloft. But I still wouldn't go higher than 12 or 13: 1. Too many times it just doesn't work out to go higher, even when everything seems lined up. The 12z CMC and Euro were pretty dry, so I'm thinking .1 - .15" QPF. That works out to a forecast of 1"-2" of snow. Based on 18z and 0z data, I would consider changing that expectation... possibly to 2"-3" if guidance trends a little wetter. Thank you! that's my thinking too.... Hearing 1-3" always frustrates me. There is a big difference between the totals. My pet peeve is 4-8" lol. 4" of snow is a solid snowfall, but not too big of a deal. 8" is a major snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thank you! that's my thinking too.... Hearing 1-3" always frustrates me. There is a big difference between the totals. My pet peeve is 4-8" lol. 4" of snow is a solid snowfall, but not too big of a deal. 8" is a major snow event A two inch difference isn't big. I think 1 to 3 inches is a good call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thank you! that's my thinking too.... Hearing 1-3" always frustrates me. There is a big difference between the totals. My pet peeve is 4-8" lol. 4" of snow is a solid snowfall, but not too big of a deal. 8" is a major snow event Huge pet peeve with those forecasts because that's a huge difference when you're talking delays, cancellations, and other issues. There's even more discrepancy when we see 5-10, 6-12, 10/12-18, and various other ranges. It reminds me of when they made fun of March 2001 with the potential for 3 to 33 inches of snow. Lower the range as more information comes about and we get closer to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS looking juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hour 30 moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hour 33 mod snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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