NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Every system has over performed a bit this winter around here in terms of snow. The area is a snow magnet this season so wouldn't shock me If we end up with a little more then 1-3. Joe B thinks ratios will be higher given what he is seeing in the west as snow is overperfoming there. Infrequent poster here and not a Met. But haven't the "past" storms been coastals that were looking more suppressed and came further north as we got closer to the event? This one is a clipper, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The legend for these maps is incorrect. .25 should be .10, .50 should be .25, etc Good consensus across most guidance for .10 to .20 of liquid at 12:1 to 15:1 ratios. That makes for a rather simple and safe forecast of 1 to 3 inches area wide That's really bad to have an incorrect legend - are you 100% sure? Does that mean it's wrong for just this run or has it been wrong for a long time and we've all been given erroneous info? 0.1-0.25" is a huge difference vs. 0.25-0.25" - that kind of difference (1-2" difference at typical ratios) is noise for an 8-12" storm but 1-2.5" vs 2.5-5.0" is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Infrequent poster here and not a Met. But haven't the "past" storms been coastals that were looking more suppressed and came further north as we got closer to the event? This one is a clipper, no? Yep and if anything these tend to dry out as they move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not to argue - but can't say for sure its going to be a low impact event because a few hours timing either way makes a big difference and can't make that prediction this far in advance - if we get 4 that will delay at the least schools in the area which they are hoping for instead of closing because some have taken already a couple more days then they originally built into their calendars I'd take the under on school delays at this point. No need to waste another day on this one. But, if you are riding the persistence of this winter pattern, can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's really bad to have an incorrect legend - are you 100% sure? Does that mean it's wrong for just this run or has it been wrong for a long time and we've all been given erroneous info? 0.1-0.25" is a huge difference vs. 0.25-0.25" - that kind of difference (1-2" difference at typical ratios) is noise for an 8-12" storm but 1-2.5" vs 2.5-5.0" is a big deal. Absolutely sure....I have seen this maps posted for other events this year. Not sure of the source of these maps, but check out the NCEP site and you will see the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Different pattern yields different results. -epo just about eroded is going to be very different than what we've had all winter. Set your expectations low...be thrilled if snowfall overproduces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yep and if anything these tend to dry out as they move east. Yes, so I'm not sure I understand how and why all the discussion about how this one is going to come in even wetter than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes, so I'm not sure I understand how and why all the discussion about how this one is going to come in even wetter than progged. The Low pressure will be off the coast for enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes, so I'm not sure I understand how and why all the discussion about how this one is going to come in even wetter than progged. Because its the trend of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Because its the trend of the season The system also is deepening a bit and sharpening at 500 as it approaches unlike most clipper type lows that are diving from NW to SE and sometimes dampening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Because its the trend of the season The trend of the season? It's been the trend of the season when there's a coastal involved that has been suppressed by the models until within 24-48 hours. There's no coastal here, it's a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The trend of the season? It's been the trend of the season when there's a coastal involved that has been suppressed by the models until within 24-48 hours. There's no coastal here, it's a clipper. I agree but I think people are looking at past storms that trended wetter at the last minute as the reason this one will as well. It can but not without some coastal interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The Low pressure will be off the coast for enhancement When I look at the 12z GFS, I see the coastal low not forming until around 4AM EST on Monday and it's near Cape Cod ... after most of the precip is over in the NYC area. Looks to me like the only "enhanced" precip I see from the coastal affects southeastern areas of Long Island. Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree but I think people are looking at past storms that trended wetter at the last minute as the reason this one will as well. It can but not without some coastal interaction Agreed. And I'm not seeing it from the current model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 When I look at the 12z GFS, I see the coastal low not forming until around 4AM EST on Monday and it's near Cape Cod ... after most of the precip is over in the NYC area. Looks to me like the only "enhanced" precip I see from the coastal affects southeastern areas of Long Island. Am I wrong? FALSE, low is just off our coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree but I think people are looking at past storms that trended wetter at the last minute as the reason this one will as well. It can but not without some coastal interaction Same thing was said for every storm this season. People insisted there is no way for more precip. We have seen low pressure positions change many times within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 FALSE, low is just off our coast Interesting. The site that you are getting this GFS from seems to depict the SLP somewhat differently from the NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Interesting. The site that you are getting this GFS from seems to depict the SLP somewhat differently from the NCEP site. That's a weather bell image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Area of light snow to our SW moving in soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Area of light snow to our SW moving in soonAlready? That was fast.Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Area of light snow to our SW moving in soon Yea I just noticed that... That def was not on the models and it looks to be enhancing somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That's a weather bell image Tropicaltidbits is where that is from.....and they vary at times from the ncep site.....noticed it myself a couple of times this winter.....Pretty frustrating actually, and possibly the reason for some confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not too sure that snow on radar is reaching the ground. Mount holly mentioned at 10 am that it wasn't reaching the ground even in Delaware.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 For ease of illustration as to which direction the GFS went with qpf -- NYC (Central Park) on the overnight 00z run was 0.34". On the 12z run it's 0.18". Almost exactly half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not a bad 36 hour sim radar frame on the 12Z SPC WRF today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not too sure that snow on radar is reaching the ground. Mount holly mentioned at 10 am that it wasn't reaching the ground even in Delaware.... Most of the returns off the radar don't show anything in Delaware. Most of it is in Southern Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yea I just noticed that... That def was not on the models and it looks to be enhancing somewhat 4k nam has it... though not in the right location... but it also has it falling apart. HRRR has it, but farther east... and scooting ne reaching monmouth county and south with a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 4k nam has it... though not in the right location... but it also has it falling apart. HRRR has it, but farther east... and scooting ne reaching monmouth county and south with a few flakes. RGEM also.....falling apart also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 4k nam has it... though not in the right location... but it also has it falling apart. HRRR has it, but farther east... and scooting ne reaching monmouth county and south with a few flakes. RGEM also.....falling apart also Ok didn't realize that maybe it can hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RGEM also.....falling apart also If anything, echos on the radar seem to be intensifying. (Yet nothing hitting the ground in Wilmington) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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