PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like 12-15:1 off the soundings. Yeh I'm counting o. .25 at 15 to 1 to get me home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Minus the ARW members which are initialized off the GFS, the rest of the SREF members are similar to the NAM. So today into tomorrow will find out if it's the 1-2" non GFS guidance or the more robust GFS 2-4" At 9z, few of NMMs are more amplified and showing a strip of .25-.50" in the tri-state area. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hr 33 light snow moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hr 36 steady snow gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hr 39 steady snow continues. Temps in 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs is .10+ looks like 1-3 is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Could be a nice band of snow that comes through....RGEM only shows it lasting about 1-2 hours though before becoming very scattered. I think that is a BIT underdone and think it'll last about 3 hours. Assuming it is 1"/hour for about an hour.....then 1/2' per hour for 2, it could be 2" max.....I think Upton's call of 1-2" is very good. My call, like I said yesterday, would be around 1", maybe 1.5" with some areas getting a little bit more up to 2". I don't see much to support the 2-4 aside from the GFS, so I'd have to count it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z gfs shows less qpf than its 3 previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Its 0.25in QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs is .10+ looks like 1-3 is a good call It moved to the other guidance this run with a weaker surface low than 6z. The GFS usually backs off when it is the only model showing a single solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is running this piece of vorticity out ahead of the main show behind it. Could be fictitious but something to consider. That's the precip thief... f30.gif GFS follows the NAM theme with the robber. Just so folks can see why it won't be more than a 1-3" type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Its 0.25in QPF The legend for these maps is incorrect. .25 should be .10, .50 should be .25, etc Good consensus across most guidance for .10 to .20 of liquid at 12:1 to 15:1 ratios. That makes for a rather simple and safe forecast of 1 to 3 inches area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS follows the NAM theme with the robber. Just so folks can see why it won't be more than a 1-3" type deal. f30.gif the total qpf is about the same as 6Z 0.25 at least over a wide area - 2-4 because of good ratio's in fact I would go out on a limb here that some areas could get over 4- if the ens mean shows this and this solution continues at 18Z chances increase for 2 -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 the total qpf is about the same as 6Z 0.25 at least over a wide area - 2-4 because of good ratio's in fact I would go out on a limb here that some areas could get over 4- if the ens mean shows this and this solution continues at 18Z chances increase for 2 -4 I'd like to see that lead southern stream SW wash out on further runs before going crazy with amounts.....But yeah, this is a yet another snow producer in this winter of snow production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't see anything wrong w the qpf field. I still like .25. I think the RGEM has been good curious to see where that falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1-3" is now the probable call but there could be some enhancement as it hits the coast so locally higher amounts up to 4"+ wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'd like to see that lead southern stream SW wash out on further runs before going crazy with amounts.....But yeah, this is a yet another snow producer in this winter of snow production. I am sure that alot of folks in various towns around here who are in charge of the sanitation depts would like to see nothing since many are stuck now with a shortage of road salt - and this storm will be coming just in time to mess up monday mornings rush hour - more OT though for the plow drivers - like to see their paychecks the last 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Should be done way before monday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Every system has over performed a bit this winter around here in terms of snow. The area is a snow magnet this season so wouldn't shock me If we end up with a little more then 1-3. Joe B thinks ratios will be higher given what he is seeing in the west as snow is overperfoming there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 the total qpf is about the same as 6Z 0.25 at least over a wide area - 2-4 because of good ratio's in fact I would go out on a limb here that some areas could get over 4- if the ens mean shows this and this solution continues at 18Z chances increase for 2 -4 Just for discussion, but how is the qpf not less than earlier runs? The overnight run had NYC at 0.35", the 06z run had over 0.25", and this run is under than 0.25". On a small event, it almost halves the qpf for some areas from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Every system has over performed a bit this winter around here in terms of snow. The area is a snow magnet this season so wouldn't shock me If we end up with a little more then 1-3. Joe B thinks ratios will be higher given what he is seeing in the west as snow is overperfoming there. Models have also trended wetter with our past storms. If anything this ones trending drier at least on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 the total qpf is about the same as 6Z 0.25 at least over a wide area - 2-4 because of good ratio's in fact I would go out on a limb here that some areas could get over 4- if the ens mean shows this and this solution continues at 18Z chances increase for 2 -4 just for clarification sake... the 12z GFS does not print out .25" qpf. NCEP site has it .1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That southern wave beyond this system is a little interesting, the Nam is way more amped up with it but there's probably not enough SE ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am sure that alot of folks in various towns around here who are in charge of the sanitation depts would like to see nothing since many are stuck now with a shortage of road salt - and this storm will be coming just in time to mess up monday mornings rush hour - more OT though for the plow drivers - like to see their paychecks the last 2 months Should be a low impact event, if the progged timing is correct. Never the less, there will be a strain on resources yet again. Easy to push off the deck, but a plow run will be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just for discussion, but how is the qpf not less than earlier runs? The overnight run had NYC at 0.35", the 06z run had over 0.25", and this run is under than 0.25". On a small event, it almost halves the qpf for some areas from earlier runs. Agree...6z run had all of north NJ in the .25+ range. 12z run has no one in the .25 range save for a small sliver just off the central NJ coast. (indication of the snow capital of the northeast...Monmouth County...being the jackpot zone again?!?!, LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 just for clarification sake... the 12z GFS does not print out .25" qpf. NCEP site has it .1+ To be precise it went from .34 last night to .18. Could just be noise but with such a relatively low amount to begin with it could be significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agree...6z run had all of north NJ in the .25+ range. 12z run has no one in the .25 range save for a small sliver just off the central NJ coast. (indication of the snow capital of the northeast...Monmouth County...being the jackpot zone again?!?!, LOL) People are arguing over an inch of snow basically like seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 just for clarification sake... the 12z GFS does not print out .25" qpf. NCEP site has it .1+ This. Again, the scale is not right on the maps that +SNfreak posted above....its been discussed in other forums. Check out the NCEP site. No one is in the .25+ range on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 People are arguing over an inch of snow basically like seriously. Every inch counts, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Should be a low impact event, if the progged timing is correct. Never the less, there will be a strain on resources yet again. Easy to push off the deck, but a plow run will be needed. Not to argue - but can't say for sure its going to be a low impact event because a few hours timing either way makes a big difference and can't make that prediction this far in advance - if we get 4 that will delay at the least schools in the area which they are hoping for instead of closing because some have taken already a couple more days then they originally built into their calendars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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