SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro has done quite poorly with northern stream energy this year. GFS has done better and likely has the best idea going forward but we probably won't know until inside 24 with this. Exactly what I was thinking the Euro may be dropping the ball again because we are back to a northern stream system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 06z NAM looks better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 06z NAM looks better so far. Im awake, whats it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 6z GFS close to .3 similar to its 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Overnight, the GFS improved its consistency, maintaining its scenario for a light to moderate qpf event. This may be a sign that the GFS is now keying in on a single shortwave. The next thing to watch is whether the other guidance moves toward the GFS. It should be noted that the GFS has often outperformed the ECMWF with these northern branch systems this winter, so the probability of a light snowfall event and perhaps a moderate one is probably higher than the probability of little or no snow with the Sunday night/Monday timeframe favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Overnight, the GFS improved its consistency, maintaining its scenario for a light to moderate qpf event. This may be a sign that the GFS is now keying in on a single shortwave. The next thing to watch is whether the other guidance moves toward the GFS. It should be noted that the GFS has often outperformed the ECMWF with these northern branch systems this winter, so the probability of a light snowfall event and perhaps a moderate one is probably higher than the probability of little or no snow with the Sunday night/Monday timeframe favored. 6Z GFS ENS MEAN shows about 0.25 region wide and has shown that the last few runs so thats the way to go right now - 2-4 inches - Timing is key here because if it happens late sunday night through monday morning it will be a high impact event for obvious reasons http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020806/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What looks to be the timing of the Sunday night into Monday system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What looks to be the timing of the Sunday night into Monday system? exactly what you just said - hard to pin down exact timing now http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020806/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFS?Still show around .25 area wide.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_048_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 www.weather.gov Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That gets you 15 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nam should be better this run…out to hr 30 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 hr 36 light snow into area..steady snow out by eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 hr 39 steady snow from smq-phl…breaks it up a bit so light snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 .10+ on the nam…not really buying the gfs idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 .10+ on the nam…not really buying the gfs idea not buying the srefs idea either ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 .10+ on the nam…not really buying the gfs idea Duno the GFS has been consistent . The NAM has a little more precip area wide at 12z than at 6z . Maybe catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Duno the GFS has been consistent . The NAM has a little more precip area wide at 12z than at 6z . Maybe catching up. I agree the last couple of storms the NAM was playing catch up to the other more robust models BUT was able to deliver one of its over the top runs just in time - so I am also going with the GFS and SREFS - The GFS has its ENS MEAN support - also many storms have over performed this winter so far - so why not expect this one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree the last couple of storms the NAM was playing catch up to the other more robust models BUT was able to deliver one of its over the top runs just in time - so I am also going with the GFS and SREFS - The GFS has its ENS MEAN support - also many storms have over performed this winter so far - so why not expect this one too I like the look of .25 at 15 to 1 . IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree the last couple of storms the NAM was playing catch up to the other more robust models BUT was able to deliver one of its over the top runs just in time - so I am also going with the GFS and SREFS - The GFS has its ENS MEAN support Minus the ARW members which are initialized off the GFS, the rest of the SREF members are similar to the NAM. So today into tomorrow will find out if it's the 1-2" non GFS guidance or the more robust GFS 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Minus the ARW members which are initialized off the GFS, the rest of the members are similar to the NAM. So today into tomorrow will find out if its the 1-2" non GFS guidance or the more robust GFS 2-4" I just like that the NAM though feeble , was less feeble than at 6z , so it may be goin in the right direction . .10 TO .25 is not a huge jump , so guess we will know in 12 - 24 hours . Lets see if the 4k NAM is a bit wetter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 4k NAM is a solid hit. Moderate to heavy echoes area wide and a solid appearance on sim radar. Still early for its range though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is running this piece of vorticity out ahead of the main show behind it. Could be fictitious but something to consider. That's the precip thief... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 With qpf around .15-.25 of an inch, and temperatures in the 20s Sunday night; I think a general 1-3 inches area wide is the general outlook for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 With qpf around .15-.25 of an inch, and temperatures in the 20s Sunday night; I think a general 1-3 inches area wide is the general outlook for this event. Minus 10 at 850. Should yield better than 10 to 1. Surface will b in the 20s I like a wide area of 4 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Minus 10 at 850. Should yield better than 10 to 1. Surface will b in the 20s I like a wide area of 4 imo SREF plumes(9z) are printing out 1-3 inches area wide which goes with the latest gfs run. In the colder areas like the Hudson Valley ratios would be better so in that region 4 inches is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREF plumes(9z) are printing out 1-3 inches area wide which goes with the latest gfs run. In the colder areas like the Hudson Valley ratios would be better so in that region 4 inches is possible. Will b nice to tidy up the landscape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Minus 10 at 850. Should yield better than 10 to 1. Surface will b in the 20s I like a wide area of 4 imo Looks like 12-15:1 off the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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