PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 A little confused how a SW moving W to E does this as its down sloping . But who am I to argue with the ALGO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not a bad look for a minor event; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 A little confused how a SW moving W to E does this as its down sloping . But who am I to argue with the ALGO . Look at H5. It's digging more on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What I tough forecast. 1-5" isn't a bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Look at H5. It's digging more on each run. A little more buckling would be nice for my taste , but once we`ve been inside 48 hours this winter we seem to sharpen up with these threats . lets hope we keep the streak . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 New gfs is a nice 3 to 4 region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks warmish on LI and immediate jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks warmish on LI and immediate jersey coast. 850`S minus 6 - 8 Cant zoom in on the surface looks fine from a distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think this could still keep changing... and hopefully trending toward a snowy outcome. Days ago this was the wave that guidance really aggressively wrapped up. Sometimes aspects of the long range depictions show up again in the short term. I've been thinking for a while now that the late late Sun - Mon time period had the best shot. I still think the last wave in the sequence that the NAM scoots just to our south is the best shot at a decent event... it appears to have the most room to the north to amplify. But it could happen the way the GFS shows it too... the GFS shows less separation between the last two waves, and raises heights ahead of a middle wave. Low confidence, low expectations... sometimes the most fun scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It really wants to blow up near the coast and it looks like it still has room to dig, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 850`S minus 6 - 8 Cant zoom in on the surface looks fine from a distancemost of LI surface is above 32 with a light SE wind. Makes sense given a stronger low passing directly over head, but I wouldn't worry about it since H5 argues this trends further south with better digging each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The maps show 3" for Trenton through NYC into CT and 4-5" around Boston. Some areas in Long Island 2-3" closer to NYC, central and east LI pretty much nothing, on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks warmish on LI and immediate jersey coast. Yeah this event is sort of similar to the late December one that screwed LI...there is not a whole lot of room for error really...the soundings show JFK being close, a SE wind though now will not be quite as damaging as it was back in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The maps show 3" for Trenton through NYC into CT and 4-5" around Boston I swear if we get another 4-8" out of something that looked like nothing just a couple of runs ago, then I'm done following models beyond 48 hrs. Some pretty dramatic changes between 18z and 0z gfs within 2 days of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah this event is sort of similar to the late December one that screwed LI...there is not a whole lot of room for error really...the soundings show JFK being close, a SE wind though now will not be quite as damaging as it was back in December True, coastal waters are cold. it's not like the low has time to draw a long warm fetch of air from Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow unreal trend trend trend this sinter awsone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow unreal trend trend trend this sinter awsone! How many beers have you had? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How many beers have you had? ;-) Ill guess 2-4......Beers with potential for 6 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ill guess 2-4......Beers with potential for 6 ! lol, good one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 lol, good one... RU education Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nothing supports rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 RU education Hahaha you can say that again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How many beers have you had? ;-) Haha you got me ! Sorry for the fake optimism! I'm so into the trend this winter. Funny how negative talk will get you banned. I realize this is a couple inches at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Haha you got me ! Sorry for the fake optimism! I'm so into the trend this winter. Funny how negative talk will get you banned. I realize this is a couple inches at best. No my comment was because of all the misspellings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 No my comment was because of all the misspellingsRapid phone posting. And yes I might have had a few. Regardless loving this winters modeling hugging disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Optimum NAM range is 6 to 48 hours, I believe. I was being sarcastic. It usually shows changes aloft at hr 6 or 12 of it's next run. It unreliable and should only be used if it's within model consensus. It's also good in the very short range picking up low level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I was being sarcastic. It usually shows changes aloft at hr 6 or 12 of it's next run. It unreliable and should only be used if it's within model consensus. It's also good in the very short range picking up low level cold air. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How's the EURO looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How's the EURO looking? Terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro has done quite poorly with northern stream energy this year. GFS has done better and likely has the best idea going forward but we probably won't know until inside 24 with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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