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2/9 - 2/10 light snow observations


Zelocita Weather

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I think this could still keep changing... and hopefully trending toward a snowy outcome. Days ago this was the wave that guidance really aggressively wrapped up. Sometimes aspects of the long range depictions show up again in the short term.  I've been thinking for a while now that the late late Sun - Mon time period had the best shot.  I still think the last wave in the sequence that the NAM scoots just to our south is the best shot at a decent event... it appears to have the most room to the north to amplify.  But it could happen the way the GFS shows it too... the GFS shows less separation between the last two waves, and raises heights ahead of a middle wave. 

 

Low confidence, low expectations... sometimes the most fun scenario. 

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850`S minus 6 - 8 Cant zoom in on the surface looks fine from a distance

most of LI surface is above 32 with a light SE wind. Makes sense given a stronger low passing directly over head, but I wouldn't worry about it since H5 argues this trends further south with better digging each run.
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Looks warmish on LI and immediate jersey coast.

 

 

Yeah this event is sort of similar to the late December one that screwed LI...there is not a whole lot of room for error really...the soundings show JFK being close, a SE wind though now will not be quite as damaging as it was back in December

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Yeah this event is sort of similar to the late December one that screwed LI...there is not a whole lot of room for error really...the soundings show JFK being close, a SE wind though now will not be quite as damaging as it was back in December

True, coastal waters are cold. it's not like the low has time to draw a long warm fetch of air from Bermuda.

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Optimum NAM range is 6 to 48 hours, I believe.

I was being sarcastic. It usually shows changes aloft at hr 6 or 12 of it's next run. It unreliable and should only be used if it's within model consensus. It's also good in the very short range picking up low level cold air.

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