WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm confused. Either you have the NAM before the world or I'm missing something. NAM out to 42 hours. I am just projecting from what I see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree actually. I think 2" tops, 1/2" to 1" more likely....just saying that wasn't the wave that was to produce though Okay, cool - no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nam not thrilled with this. But nam had nada for Monday until 12z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow the models are having a very tough time at handling these three short waves. It I trying to decide which one will be the stronger one. It seems like the 12Z run was way different from the 18Z run and now the 00Z run is looking different too. A forecast looked easy just a few flurries , then a 1"-4" storm Sunday night, now a possible snow event sometime Monday. I do not trust these runs very much. It would like to see more consistency with the upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Okay, cool - no problem. Oh I see you're a meteorologist...which station are you on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the NAM has the problem as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nam is liking the wave on Monday though, but it doesn't know which one to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Oh I see you're a meteorologist...which station are you on? Retired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's not Gona b easy for any model to lock onto one SW and stick with it just think there's too much movement in the flow . If the spacing is bad then non will deepen . I think if it's Gona happen it has the models will sneak up on u . I would just look for the SW with the best height rises on the west coast and see which one has the best ridge axis Good luck putting together a 3 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is out of range Wasn't aware it had one. Maybe within 24 hrs but only if it's within model consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wasn't aware it had one. Maybe within 24 hrs but only if it's within model consensus Optimum NAM range is 6 to 48 hours, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Guys, this is the same wave that the Euro is focused on. It is correct and most likely will trend further north and stronger. Haven't we seen this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Guys, this is the same wave that the Euro is focused on. It is correct and most likely will trend further north and stronger. Haven't we seen this before? I agree I like the 3rd wave. Just think it comes back when we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree I like the 3rd wave. Just think it comes back when we get closer I truly believe that you have to go only with the high resolution models here. Must get within 48 hours before they have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 00Z RGEM at 48 hours argues the GFS has the better idea for Sunday...chances are if this wave is as strong as the GFS/RGEM suggest then the 2nd one at 60-70 hours the NAM is focusing on wouldnt be as big an issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hard to go against the European and NAM when they are in agreement. The old EE Rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 So which one is it, the one on Sunday, the one on Monday, both or neither? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I feel like I am looking at last Friday`s D 3 VV ( clearly not as strong ) . Just argues IMO to come N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Interestingly the 18Z RGEM at 54 hours did look alot like the 00Z NAM back over the Oh Valley/Midwest region, but the 00Z run backed off the idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Interestingly the 18Z RGEM at 54 hours did look alot like the 00Z NAM back over the Oh Valley/Midwest region, but the 00Z run backed off the idea... Yes, very interesting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wasn't aware it had one. Maybe within 24 hrs but only if it's within model consensus lol on nam range. ETA was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Holding onto faint snow hopes and always emphasizing the snowiest potential, even if you try to use meteorological terms, is wishcasting. If it was once in awhile, I don't think anyone would care, but almost 1400 posts in 60 days is almost 25 posts per day and between you and some of the other wishcasters, it simply clutters these threads up. Maybe read a little more and post a little less - that's my approach, since I much prefer to read what the experts have to say (and I'm certain I know more about meteorological fundamentals than most; see the last paragraph of my profile if interested in why I say that). Just some friendly advice. I'd rather have a wishcaster than a troll. Wasn't trying to troll - was trying to provide honest, constructive feedback to a poster who's only been here a few months. Love his enthusiasm, but I just think he needs to dial it down and observe more/post less. agree 100 % thanks... Point taken and im not offended btw i just try and participate no matter what. Its what we're all here to do. Am i good at forecasting? No but i do try and post some stuff that is constructive and it is. What I don't understand is, if you acknowledge you're not good at forecasting, then why not leave the forecasting to those who are? Learn from them, improve your own understanding and then start to add in your forecasting thoughts. Again, just my two cents. I'm not going to tell you what you can/can't do. Happy to see a fellow Ru grad who can write such an erudite bio ( yes I was insane enough to read it all Dr. ) who enjoys RU Footbll & the melody. Rock on & Snow on! Wow, you read that - not sure whether to offer you congratulations or condolences, lol. Thanks, though - are you an RU grad and old Melody-ite also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thr GFS still likes the wave at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Poor ol NAM is just confused on which wave to focus on. GFS is a beaut for a nice minor/modest event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Almost .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 6+ for Boston on this run, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seriously? Another Moderate sneak attack? I'm gonna remember this winter for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 very nice Looks like we are finally getting somewhere here Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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