Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If I was a meteorologist I could never have a social media page, the amount of bickering & in my backyard questions would drive me to insanity. Earthlight, you are right in the amount of different waves shown on the models, however it SEEMS we may be beginning to see some focus on the one Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:07 PM, Blizzardo said: Well the NAM should be rolling. Is anyone on it? No major changes so far. The first coastal is well southeast as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There's a bit more Pacific energy being rolled into the shortwave over Idaho @ 36 hours (which eventually leads to the Sunday Night storm)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Any kind of a redeveloping miller B for Monday that can intensify and move into the 50/50 position would increase our chances for later in the week. Yesterdays 12z GFS had it and the result was a track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 1:52 PM, Blizzardo said: And Sferic asking when does it all start..LOL When does it start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 1:54 PM, earthlight said: What is the estimated start time on Long Island? When is the heaviest supposed to be? What time is it expected to end on Long Island? Guilty as charged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:12 PM, sferic said: When does it start? Lol.. too funny ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This run looks much less energetic with the disturbance over the N Plains for Sun-mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Its a damn shame....u can see at 27 hours what almost was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 By hour 45 the coastal storm is almost near Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:18 PM, earthlight said: This run looks much less energetic with the disturbance over the N Plains for Sun-mon It just looks a few hours slower. Vort coming down from Canada looks just as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:19 PM, ag3 said: It just looks a few hours slower. Vort coming down from Canada looks just as strong. The SREF are pretty impressive at least glancing at the indies...pretty good support for a light event on most members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Nothing for Sunday morning so far on the 12z NAM. The northern stream completely de-amplifies. Looks like we'll need to rely on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:19 PM, ag3 said: It just looks a few hours slower. Vort coming down from Canada looks just as strong. Look how strong the lead vort is over Great Lakes. Room to amplify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The energy coming into the Dakotas looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Completely different evolution aloft on the NAM through 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:21 PM, Weathergun said: Look how strong the lead vort is over Great Lakes. Room to amplify? I think that'll act as confluence actually. The entire thing looks a little muddled to me unless we start talking about bringing a larger part of that energy over SE Canada down southward. But I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The smallest area of precip pops over central Illinois at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:13 PM, sferic said: Guilty as charged i thought you were the worst with the annoying questions, until rossi once asked "how much for monmouth county?" when the 192 hour euro showed a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:24 PM, earthlight said: I think that'll act as confluence actually. The entire thing looks a little muddled to me unless we start talking about bringing a larger part of that energy over SE Canada down southward. But I could be wrong. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The northern stream is acting as confluence, no dice this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Too many SW here at this range for this to pin down . Looks like the Euro with SW movement at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You can see at 84 its keying on wave 4 , too many SW here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ladies and gentlemen....you have been NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:40 PM, PB GFI said: Too many SW here at this range for this to pin down . Looks like the Euro with SW movement at 72 NAM blows up the final shortwave at hrs 72-84 and gives us a nice snow event. But there's so much chaos with this pattern that it's very hard for models to key on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 On 2/7/2014 at 2:47 PM, jm1220 said: NAM blows up the final shortwave at hrs 72-84 and gives us a nice snow event. But there's so much chaos with this pattern that it's very hard for models to key on anything. One of these may just sneak up on us , ( If it`s going to happen ) I think its going be too hard to see it from a distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAM looks ripe for a Moderate Event/SECS slightly after its range, it is really putting a lot of emphasis on the 4th piece. Now that looks like a snow set-up verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You can see the confluent flow to the north pressing down on the flow. The system that develops over the KY Valley has no choice but to ride eastward. The flow de-amplifies as the system moves eastward. We don't want it to develop too much anyway, it could screw up the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ball of confusion that is what the world is today hey hey....The temptations for you old timers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z NAM was a step back for this threat. That doesn't mean it's correct, but its handling of the northern stream was night and day as compared to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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