LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Most models are pretty bullish at moving precip into GA later today. The 17z RAP brings in a good slug of moisture but it doesn't seem to bring much of it to the ground. I think metro atlanta in particular will be seeing he flakes fly in a few hours. Little to no accumulation it appears right now but the system does seem to be over performing to date. 38 degrees with a DP of 25 right now. I don't see any issues with snow sticking but black ice could be a minor issue tomorrow morning for the commute in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 "I don't see any issues with snow sticking but black ice could be a minor issue tomorrow morning for the commute in." .....and watch the panic set in around the Atlanta area. Even though this minor event will probably be nothing, It would be interesting to see some decent snow come down at least for a short time to see the reaction. Down to 40 here in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 200 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>085- 089>095-102-103-070700- DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON- NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON- SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP- MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON- GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS- WILKINSON-JOHNSON-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON- PEACH-HOUSTON-STEWART-WEBSTER- 200 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014 ...LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING... OVERVIEW... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN GEORGIA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY JUST A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNSET...AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX AREA WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO LOUISVILLE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. ANY SNOW SHOULD MELT QUICKLY AFTER HITTING THE GROUND. EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO MAINLY A MIX OF SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IMPACTS... THIS IS A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM LAST WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT ABOVE FREEZING AND REMAINING SO FOR THE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. ALSO...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...FURTHER LIMITING ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THIN PATCHY BLACK ICE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN UNTIL THE ROADWAYS HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Birmingham, AL nws put out WWA for snow up to half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 18Z RAP is bullish for extreme north GA all of NC and a sliver of the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18Z RAP is bullish for extreme north GA all of NC and a sliver of the upstate. I thought it wasn't going to snow in GA :-) Here is what the HRRR is spitting out for tonight/tomorrow morning, it's been doing pretty good lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18Z RAP is bullish for extreme north GA all of NC and a sliver of the upstate. Don't fall for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Latest NAM is picking up on that dusting in SE NC too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Don't fall for it! Not dumb enough to believe the RAP ever again. The HRRR did quite well with our bust last week and it did good this week with the 2 events in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not dumb enough to believe the RAP ever again. The HRRR did quite well with our bust last week and it did good this week with the 2 events in the NE. The RAP did really well here with the storm last week, guess it just depended on where you were if it performed well or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 19z RAP at 1am tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 19z RAP at 1am tonight... Thundersnow over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thundersnow over my house. It's one of those, where a hard snow shower comes down for an hour but it's melted by the time you wake up, it's like it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is that all snow? No it's the simulated radar, at most people will see flurries tonight, assuming your awake. Most of that never hits the ground, plus it's above freezing in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looking at the radar coming out if the south it looks promising!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That's a lot of moisutre down south to evaporate... some has to make it to nc... temps forecasted for 27 with a dew point of 28 so if anything falls it should be frozen here in se nc... reports of moderate snow in louisiana and mississippi right now.. IF rap is onto something might be a little surprise east of 95 being that we are on the outside looking in with the other storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That's a pretty decent size precip. shield down in Ms/Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC307 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-072015-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-307 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THEHIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCEAPPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TOWHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL EVEN DEVELOP. GIVEN THATTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THISEVENING...NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 http://www.localwireless.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&state=GA&city=Atlanta&d=540&zc=&submit=Save&showstorms=10&showids=1&r=192.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 http://www.localwireless.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&state=GA&city=Atlanta&d=540&zc=&submit=Save&showstorms=10&showids=1&r=192.0Do you have the link to that other radar you posted during the storm last week? The one that had the state of GA temps, dewpoints etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Do you have the link to that other radar you posted during the storm last week? The one that had the state of GA temps, dewpoints etc? Here ya go... http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thundersnow over my house. Somehow you end up with all the wild weather in the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here ya go... http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT Thanks! I like this website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think the radar is very deceiving. Quite a bit of that isn't reaching the ground. Like if I look at the BMX radar it doesn't show anything just west of the city. But the FFC radar shows moderate returns there. That is a classic signal of precip not getting to the surface. Edit: RAP confirms the system looks juicy on the composite simulated reflectivity but not much shows up on the 1km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 No it's the simulated radar, at most people will see flurries tonight, assuming your awake. Most of that never hits the ground, plus it's above freezing in most places. I wouldn't be so sure about that. Radar is healthy looking and keeps getting better. I'd bet that north sections of GA, N/W SC and sections NC will see flakes hit the ground. Its just the fact of getting the atmosphere moisten. Parts of SC/NC I wouldn't be too surprised to see some accumulations. Nam hires and rap both tightens up the 500mb energy as it moves NE. Where ever this vorticity goes will be where the best shot at accumulations happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I wouldn't be so sure about that. Radar is healthy looking and keeps getting better. I'd bet that north sections of GA, N/W SC and sections NC will see flakes hit the ground. Its just the fact of getting the atmosphere moisten. Parts of SC/NC I wouldn't be too surprised to see some accumulations. Nam hires and rap both tightens up the 500mb energy as it moves NE. Where ever this vorticity goes will be where the best shot at accumulations happen. I really like my chances, the radar is quite robust, it's not too dry, dp at 25. My concern is the 46 degree temp at this point ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 HRRR puts down a dusting of snow for a good part of central NC as of the 19z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anybody very familiar with the RUC? The projected reflectivity loop of the 20Z run just goes bonkers!! http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=ruc_jet:&runTime=2014020620&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 HRRR puts down a dusting of snow for a good part of central NC as of the 19z run. Could it really be?!? *wipes eyes to make sure I'm seeing right* 1-3" near Rocky Mount NC Anybody very familiar with the RUC? The projected reflectivity loop of the 20Z run just goes bonkers!! http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=ruc_jet:&runTime=2014020620&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6 Wow. Thats resembling the RAP a good bit. You have a link for the 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Could it really be?!? *wipes eyes to make sure I'm seeing right* 1-3" near Rocky Mount NC Wow. Thats resembling the RAP a good bit. You have a link for the 500mb? Anything you want on the RUC is right here:http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/Welcome.cgi RAP: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/ Change the domains to SE for a close-up view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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