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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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Site is chugging right now for me, must be a lot of traffic.

 

Most of the models have continued to nudge west a little.  It's about that time where models aren't of much use anymore and we'll get nowcasting.  Let's just hope we can get one more westward bump and get into the accumulating snows if nothing else.

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Need to get rid of that low over the Northern Lakes somehow.

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Yeah, there always seems to be something that does us in when it comes to these big storms. If it's not the track, it's something like this when we finally get a chance at a decent track. Oh well. It's something we're pretty used to around here. A lot just has to go right for us to hit the jackpot. Just have to continue to live with the multiple nuisance snows we get and hope to get lucky at some point. Better than nothing.

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Wonder if we hit our last sub zero temp this morning for the winter?

 

One thing that makes missing this storm hard to swallow is that by this time next week we will be in the 40s and 50s, possibly warmer, if things continue to develop as projected. I just feel its a shame to waste the last 10 days of Feb with warmth, save it for the second week of March and just head into Spring.

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Not much but hopefully it can over perform.

 

img-resized.png Reduced: 71% of original size [ 780 x 892 ] - Click to view full image

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

Man these storms on the heels of a pattern change can really be beasts. Its frustrating to be so close but so far away on this one. :(

 

I remember as a kid waking up to busts where it snowed when it wasn't supposed to or didn't when it was supposed to, so despite the improvements made in forecasting this one feels like it wouldn't take much to give someone a surprise.

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Maybe we can squeeze out a little more.  Looking for any ray of hope we can get a couple inches....

 

THE LOCAL FORECAST THUS LEANS TWD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND
FEATURES MORE WESTWARD...AND PROLONGED SPREAD OF LGT SNOW TWD THE
I 79 CORRIDOR AS IS CONSISTENT WITH MSTR AND RELATIVE WARMTH
LIFTING INTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO.

 

From the Central Thread

A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELS
AND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY
CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS
OF THE ECMWF. THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT UP THE COASTLINE WOULD SHIFT
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND I-81
CORRIDOR...WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED TO
10-14 INCHES FROM THE FAR WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BACK WEST
TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WOULD ALSO YIELD MORE
MIXING WITH SLEET/RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TNGT IN SRN MD AND THU MRNG NEAR I-95. ALL
RAIN OR RAIN/IP MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU AFTN FOR THESE
AREAS.

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