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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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I can't seem to realize a storm that has mixing problems in Philly. Will not give pittsburgh anything. It seems the precip shield is always smaller on models than it is in now casting

 

The kicker over Minnesota/Wisconsin is what is shearing the precip shield on this storm.  Without that there it would most likely be more expansive.  At this point it seems the kicker is set, so it just deepens how deep the main low gets.  I'm amazed the GFS is still so apart from every other model.

 

If nothing else, we get a couple clippers almost back-to-back as a consolation prize.  :bag:

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So it's all the World Models vs the US Models. The westward shift seems to be continuing. The precip shield will likely much larger and further west then the models are depicting. I think there's a good chance that areas along I-28 could get some heavier snows, with a sharp cutoff over the city and west.  It's going to be such a tricky call 

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One last thing a pro met on midatlantic forum regarding the RGEM

Basically, we have a maturing cyclone along the Mid Atlantic coast that will occlude somewhere off the Northeast coastline. The way this thing gets captured and the way the surface-500mb tilted structure becomes vertical will never be ironed out correctly today. Low static stability/bombogenesis with a capture can send a low quickly west for a while; the rgem solution is not crazy.

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18z GFS  furthest west yet. Its looking better and better for Central PA, but still sharp gradient of precip keeps most of Western PA out of it.

That cutoff sucks.... Any other time you see a 980 low running up into Eastern PA like that 18z RGEM shows we would be golden. Its encouraging to see the models keep going West, give hope for 00z.

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