RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA looks pretty good. .25-.75 most of SWPA. I don't follow the JMA much so not sure what it's bias's are. NAM is East it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi nam shifts slightly west, but still joins gfs on most eastern track of upcoming storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hmmm... Looks like GFS is coming West vs previous runs to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS definitely an improvement, but nowhere close to getting us involved. Off to bed, not waiting up to see the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes the GFS has trended west the last 3 model runs.. Also shouldn't be lost of the threat for snow Friday and again Sunday... If the Wed Storm keeps going west we could be looking at alot of snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Look at the UK folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does it show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What does it show. it trended a little west and stronger. Everything is trending west, just dont know if it will be enough or if that kicker is being underplayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So with us currently being left out of this one, what would you call a success if it trends our way? A large area is going to get plastered with this storm. I'll be happy with 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So with us currently being left out of this one, what would you call a success if it trends our way? A large area is going to get plastered with this storm. I'll be happy with 3-6. to answer your first question, 5-8. I want warning criteria. But look at the loop for the storm after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That would certainly soften the blow if we miss out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This will be one of those very close calls. We just have to wait and see what tomorrow model run shows for us. showing a westward shift in the models today, if the trend continues we might be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep, so I am getting tired have class in the AM. Might try to see what the Euro says if not I will check in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The central PA thread seems to think we are still in the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The central PA thread seems to think we are still in the game... I think they still are, but we might just be too far west for this one. The "kicker" is what messes things up for us. This is going to be a very strong low that would probably normally at least spread some precip back our way without another influence to keep it to the east of us. I guess as we get closer the models will have a better handle on how much influence that kicker will have, but so far the best we've done with most of them is get fringed. Certainly still want to keep an eye on things anyway, but I still wouldn't bet on this storm getting us involved, at least to a degree of any significance. Hope I'm wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think they still are, but we might just be too far west for this one. The "kicker" is what messes things up for us. This is going to be a very strong low that would probably normally at least spread some precip back our way without another influence to keep it to the east of us. I guess as we get closer the models will have a better handle on how much influence that kicker will have, but so far the best we've done with most of them is get fringed. Certainly still want to keep an eye on things anyway, but I still wouldn't bet on this storm getting us involved, at least to a degree of any significance. Hope I'm wrong of course. That kicker is a double downer... Not only does it serve to shunt the storm further east, but it also creates the tight cutoff in precip. Today's 12z runs should have a good handle on that feature now so if we are going to see any meaningful changes for our area I think it comes then with some minor adjustments at 00z tonight. So its 3rd down and 17 right now lol If things go well this afternoon maybe we make a go of it on 4th down at 00z, otherwise we punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Since we aren't going to see any snow, am I bad hoping they all bust in amounts? I can't see it happening, looks like East Coast cities like Philly, NY, Boston could see a ton of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just had to lol when I saw this map over in the Central forum from the 00z euro. I put a red dot to approximate my backyard. Look how the snow just curves right around. The cutoff on the NW edge is killer... the track would be fine to get 3-6 or 4-8 into most of SWPA otherwise. It always seems being SE or NW is where you want to be, never in the middle where we are. Yet, we are above average for the season so that makes that observation sound ridiculous, but for the biggies it almost always holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just had to lol when I saw this map over in the Central forum from the 00z euro. I put a red dot to approximate my backyard. Look how the snow just curves right around. Euro00zSnowMap.JPG The cutoff on the NW edge is killer... the track would be fine to get 3-6 or 4-8 into most of SWPA otherwise. It always seems being SE or NW is where you want to be, never in the middle where we are. Yet, we are above average for the season so that makes that observation sound ridiculous, but for the biggies it almost always holds true. I don't think that map is the EURO run. I think it is a blending of the GFS-NAM and EURO. The 12z NAM is way east with most of the precip in the southeast third of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On phone but Lol looks like route 28 is the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't think that map is the EURO run. I think it is a blending of the GFS-NAM and EURO. The 12z NAM is way east with most of the precip in the southeast third of PA. I just went back and checked the header on the Map and you are correct. DT has a precip map on his Facebook page from the Euro and it looks pretty similar. 00z went east just a tad. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=646091845438077&set=pcb.646091932104735&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully that low in Minnesota stays that far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well I still dont like that kicker. Maybe our low will hug the coast as close as possible and that kicker will slow down. I say at best 2-4 inches, but after all the crazy things that have happened with storms this year I wouldnt rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully that low in Minnesota stays that far north and west. Yeah, or even further NW! Get it the heck out of here! lol GFS still looks pretty far East.. What a model war we would have if the Euro comes in more amped and west than 00z, would be fun to watch especially given the sensible weather implications for our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jb's snowmap, from his appearance on WSJ this morning. Pink is 12+, dark blue 6-12 and light blue 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, or even further NW! Get it the heck out of here! lol GFS still looks pretty far East.. What a model war we would have if the Euro comes in more amped and west than 00z, would be fun to watch especially given the sensible weather implications for our backyards. Yeah lol watch the Euro come in with a further west track and <980 low. One can dream right. Someone go tell HAARP to make that kicker low go back into western Canada. What would be crazy about this model war is if the gfs is wrong and the euro is west and right. Local forecasters especially in central PA will bust if they are hugging the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.