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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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So with us currently being left out of this one, what would you call a success if it trends our way? A large area is going to get plastered with this storm. I'll be happy with 3-6.

to answer your first question, 5-8. I want warning criteria. But look at the loop for the storm after

8A88B4DC-46EB-4C13-AA16-987B602E8965_zps

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The central PA thread seems to think we are still in the game...

I think they still are, but we might just be too far west for this one. The "kicker" is what messes things up for us. This is going to be a very strong low that would probably normally at least spread some precip back our way without another influence to keep it to the east of us. I guess as we get closer the models will have a better handle on how much influence that kicker will have, but so far the best we've done with most of them is get fringed. Certainly still want to keep an eye on things anyway, but I still wouldn't bet on this storm getting us involved, at least to a degree of any significance. Hope I'm wrong of course.

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I think they still are, but we might just be too far west for this one. The "kicker" is what messes things up for us. This is going to be a very strong low that would probably normally at least spread some precip back our way without another influence to keep it to the east of us. I guess as we get closer the models will have a better handle on how much influence that kicker will have, but so far the best we've done with most of them is get fringed. Certainly still want to keep an eye on things anyway, but I still wouldn't bet on this storm getting us involved, at least to a degree of any significance. Hope I'm wrong of course.

That kicker is a double downer... Not only does it serve to shunt the storm further east, but it also creates the tight cutoff in precip. Today's 12z runs should have a good handle on that feature now so if we are going to see any meaningful changes for our area I think it comes then with some minor adjustments at 00z tonight.

 

So its 3rd down and 17 right now lol If things go well this afternoon maybe we make a go of it on 4th down at 00z, otherwise we punt.

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I just had to lol when I saw this map over in the Central forum from the 00z euro. I put a red dot to approximate my backyard. Look how the snow just curves right around. :cry:

post-328-0-74405500-1392127374_thumb.jpg

 

The cutoff on the NW edge is killer... the track would be fine to get 3-6 or 4-8 into most of SWPA otherwise.

 

It always seems being SE or NW is where you want to be, never in the middle where we are. Yet, we are above average for the season so that makes that observation sound ridiculous, but for the biggies it almost always holds true.

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I just had to lol when I saw this map over in the Central forum from the 00z euro. I put a red dot to approximate my backyard. Look how the snow just curves right around. :cry:

attachicon.gifEuro00zSnowMap.JPG

 

The cutoff on the NW edge is killer... the track would be fine to get 3-6 or 4-8 into most of SWPA otherwise.

 

It always seems being SE or NW is where you want to be, never in the middle where we are. Yet, we are above average for the season so that makes that observation sound ridiculous, but for the biggies it almost always holds true.

I don't  think that map is the EURO run.  I think it is a blending of the GFS-NAM and EURO.  The 12z NAM is way east with most of  the precip in the southeast third of PA.

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I don't  think that map is the EURO run.  I think it is a blending of the GFS-NAM and EURO.  The 12z NAM is way east with most of  the precip in the southeast third of PA.

I just went back and checked the header on the Map and you are correct.

 

DT has a precip map on his Facebook page from the Euro and it looks pretty similar. 00z went east just a tad.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=646091845438077&set=pcb.646091932104735&type=1&theater

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Hopefully that low in Minnesota stays that far north and west.

Yeah, or even further NW! Get it the heck out of here! lol

 

GFS still looks pretty far East.. What a model war we would have if the Euro comes in more amped and west than 00z, would be fun to watch especially given the sensible weather implications for our backyards.

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Yeah, or even further NW! Get it the heck out of here! lol

GFS still looks pretty far East.. What a model war we would have if the Euro comes in more amped and west than 00z, would be fun to watch especially given the sensible weather implications for our backyards.

Yeah lol watch the Euro come in with a further west track and <980 low. One can dream right. Someone go tell HAARP to make that kicker low go back into western Canada. What would be crazy about this model war is if the gfs is wrong and the euro is west and right. Local forecasters especially in central PA will bust if they are hugging the GFS
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