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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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We are already on the fringe.... so book it! lol

lol, Joe Bastardis daily summary has him very bullish about next week. He said that although its not likely to happen but the similarities between 93 and next week are outstanding. Just maybe we can squeak one last big storm and cash in and put the exclamation mark on this winter. Spring breaks next week so its probably going to snow since I wanted it to snow when i had school.
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HM's take for those that may have missed it in the MA forums. Odds seem to favor a storm popping up somewhere, hopefully we can get in on the action if one does in the form of snow.

The PNA ridge is impressive and obviously the cold air source is too. There are also some similarities to past mid-march events where tropical forcing was stagnant near Dateline as KW/weak MJO came through IO-Indo. Just because there are similarities to 1993 in these aspects, doesn't mean you'll mimic the superstorm. We can just wind up with a normal Miller A or less. Plenty of CPC analogs showing up that were zzzz...

 

One major issue for a 93' comparison is the Bering Sea. This year has a giant polar vortex which does a few things:

1. Limits the extent of Arctic Air intrusion for triple phasing
2. Sends frequent s/w into PNA ridge
3. Could reduce PNA IF it trends east.

In the 78' and 93' setup, there was a giant high here which, in combination with the PNA, allowed for a smooth wave amplification (without interference) and Arctic Air from the N.P. to drop down.

 

Having said that...this is the closest I've seen March come in a long time for a 93' similarity. And as you all know, this threat window has shown up on my radar for a while now because it is intimately involved with the complex tropical-stratospheric waves/patterns. And really, the entire 3/12-3/18 period is threatening because this is a time of peak PNA that begins retrograding with cold air introduced into pattern. It will probably lead to a break / warm-up toward the 20th or so but I have feeling there is one last cold push waiting thereafter.

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There seems to be more distance between the Euro and GFS than in last weeks storm. That piece of energy that needs to fall into the California energy is coming from the same place as last week. It was the ingredient that pushed forward and allowed the Cold air to push southward well before the storm was able to take hold in our area. 

When I see the huge discrepincies between the two models, it worries me because there is too much that is need for the perfect storm to happen.

I think if these models get closer by Sunday we'll know. But as of right now, I'd go with a storm that won't happen.  

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It's frustrating seeing posters on other regional forums drop the "this setup looks like March 1993!" line - We're 8 days out, and while several models seem to be in agreement that something is going to develop in the eastern US, I think it's much more sane to enjoy the warmer weather and check back on the weekend or even next Monday and see what's up then.  But then again... this may be the last event to track for several months, so maybe we should watch... just in case? </wishcast>

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12z run of the Euro. I decided to do a 7 day trial of that Euro site to try it out. Like all the different maps you have access to.

 

 

Euro1_zpsfde52887.png

If we all stagger our 7 day trials and start them right before an event maybe we can manage to have Euro access for all of next season lol

 

Anyways, looks Miller Bish based on that map.

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It's frustrating seeing posters on other regional forums drop the "this setup looks like March 1993!" line - We're 8 days out, and while several models seem to be in agreement that something is going to develop in the eastern US, I think it's much more sane to enjoy the warmer weather and check back on the weekend or even next Monday and see what's up then.  But then again... this may be the last event to track for several months, so maybe we should watch... just in case? </wishcast>

 

It's OK to keep an eye on it because that's just what we do. Not letting myself get fooled into thinking we have the next Blizzard of 93 a week out. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. After last week's debacle, I'll have nothing more than a very cautious optimism about anything more than a couple days out. I'll still check it out here and there though.

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It's OK to keep an eye on it because that's just what we do. Not letting myself get fooled into thinking we have the next Blizzard of 93 a week out. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. After last week's debacle, I'll have nothing more than a very cautious optimism about anything more than a couple days out. I'll still check it out here and there though.

Same here. Heck, if we get 6 inches it would be our biggest storm of the year. I never expect to see a blizzard of 93. That was rare and could happen again but may not for a while. Set your expectations low and you can still be satisfied. If we get a 4 inch + storm I will be happy. If we warm to 60 degrees and sunny I will be happy.

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If we all stagger our 7 day trials and start them right before an event maybe we can manage to have Euro access for all of next season lol

 

Anyways, looks Miller Bish based on that map.

Its definitely a Miller B bomb on the EURO. 

 

I was going to start my 7 day free trial this coming Monday. 

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Here is the EURO thru 12Z Friday.  

 

Attached thumbnail(s)

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956 x 532 (190.91K)

 

All we need is the south trend from the last storm and we are in the bulls eye of 38 inches! That would be more than enough to break the all time seasonal snow fall. :lmao:

 

Its nice to see a storm showing up, and like others have said its something to watch, which is what we do. I'd like to have one big storm of 6+ before winter ends but we shall see what happens. Although its a big storm, and its happening in March, its not a triple phase as modeled now so the 93 analogies only apply to the overall 500mb pattern and that it happens to be modeled on the same dates 12-14th.

 

Anyways, for anyone that hasn't read this page, its a great read on march 93 super storm.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/archive/Superstorm93/

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