meatwad Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So close yet so far for the Euro. Come on typical westward trend, youve screwed us before. Not bothering looking at 18z models. Will be back for the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is it bad that I am so jealous of my offices in King of Prussia and Aston right now?? *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That euro looks sweet. How many other models r close to what the euro is showing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Like what we have had out now for two days. I-95 corridor fights between rain and snow, heavy back to appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Like what we have had out now for two days. I-95 corridor fights between rain and snow, heavy back to appalachians bernie rayno thinks this will be further east. Hope he is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Heh @accuElliot Remember March 94 storm I drove you into work in my jeep. Check out map vs new JMA #whiteknucklespic.twitter.com/4CJJtTIOGe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eartlight The closed H5 low and vort track over Southeast PA and NJ this run. Way west of all other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My guess is that we should have a good handle on this storm by the 0z runs tonight. Northern shortwave should then be over land. I am pulling for you guys! In this type of pattern, I would look for the 500 hPa trough to go neutral tilt over the AR/MS area, then go noticeably negative over AL/GA. If these things don't happen over these areas, I'm afraid the system will be too far east for PIT. The funny thing about PIT is that big snow is usually not that far away. Even places as close as Youngstown seem to do quite well in those common wintry mix-type storms in the PIT metro area, and then the mountains to the east are closer to the storm track + have elevation during the East Coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My guess is that we should have a good handle on this storm by the 0z runs tonight. Northern shortwave should then be over land. I am pulling for you guys! In this type of pattern, I would look for the 500 hPa trough to go neutral tilt over the AR/MS area, then go noticeably negative over AL/GA. If these things don't happen over these areas, I'm afraid the system will be too far east for PIT. The funny thing about PIT is that big snow is usually not that far away. Even places as close as Youngstown seem to do quite well in those common wintry mix-type storms in the PIT metro area, and then the mountains to the east are closer to the storm track + have elevation during the East Coast storms. Oh its not funny... we are well aware of our areas inability to get area wide 6+ inch snows..... Thanks for your input it is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Heh @accuElliot Remember March 94 storm I drove you into work in my jeep. Check out map vs new JMA #whiteknucklespic.twitter.com/4CJJtTIOGe LMAO when I worked at AccuWeather I heard about that drive. There was over a foot of snow on our main streets here and JB gave Elliot a ride in his Jeep Cherokee and they were sliding all over the place. People here have told me that storm was worst than the Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My guess is that we should have a good handle on this storm by the 0z runs tonight. Northern shortwave should then be over land. I am pulling for you guys! In this type of pattern, I would look for the 500 hPa trough to go neutral tilt over the AR/MS area, then go noticeably negative over AL/GA. If these things don't happen over these areas, I'm afraid the system will be too far east for PIT. The funny thing about PIT is that big snow is usually not that far away. Even places as close as Youngstown seem to do quite well in those common wintry mix-type storms in the PIT metro area, and then the mountains to the east are closer to the storm track + have elevation during the East Coast storms. Thanks for keeping us in the loop. I always enjoyed your input from the earlier days when you were living in our area. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well Euro keeps me sucked in and just gotta hope we can get some slight ticks west. Hopefully we can see a little 2010 surprise redux as far as trending better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro, JMA and CMC give some reason for hope. I worry that the Euro being the Western outlier will correct east some, if that happens we will probably get cloudy skies while watching blizzard conditions and talk of crippling snow storms on the nightly news for the east coast. At this point if we cold squeeze 4-6 out of this I'd count that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z NAM basically gives the big cities a blizzard and us absolutely nothing. Still a little long range for the NAM, but I just think it's a sign of things to come. Getting to close now to expect any major shifts. If only we could just pick up Pittsburgh and drop it closer to the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That shortwave actually looks stronger in the Midwest, and it hurts our chances of the main low coming any further West. It's a matter of really bad timing for our area; if that kicker wasn't there, we would probably be in a prime position. Some models do look west, I'm just not sure if it can come any further west. Also that shortwave results in a very sharp cutoff of precip as you can see on the models (the NW-side of the big low is just sheared off). Again without that shortwave in the midwest, we might have a more expansive precip shield and a better chance at something. That storm last Monday corrected north pretty severely in the last 36 hours, so I'd say there's still a chance, albeit a very small one. Anyone up for a road trip to Philly Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That shortwave actually looks stronger in the Midwest, and it hurts our chances of the main low coming any further West. It's a matter of really bad timing for our area; if that kicker wasn't there, we would probably be in a prime position. Some models do look west, I'm just not sure if it can come any further west. Also that shortwave results in a very sharp cutoff of precip as you can see on the models (the NW-side of the big low is just sheared off). Again without that shortwave in the midwest, we might have a more expansive precip shield and a better chance at something. That storm last Monday corrected north pretty severely in the last 36 hours, so I'd say there's still a chance, albeit a very small one. Anyone up for a road trip to Philly Wednesday? From the ALY AFD "AND WOULD NOT BE THE LEAST BIT SURPRISED TO SEE MODEL TRENDS FARTHER N AND W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 From the ALY AFD "AND WOULD NOT BE THE LEAST BIT SURPRISED TO SEE MODEL TRENDS FARTHER N AND W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS." I don't think you can just take the western most solution ie the Euro, and say they expect it to go West. Pretty certain if the Euro is onto something you will see all the other models that are SE trend West. Not saying it can't happen or won't I just don't think its fair to take that statement and say its coming West of the 12z Euro. As mentioned in other posts, not sure how much opportunity there is for this to come NW. If it can close off even sooner at 500 like the Euro and we slow / weaken that GL low I think all bets are off, just not confident it will happen. We always see the NW trend, but that seems to be more with systems on a more East to West trajectory that we want to see go underneath us, or moving up west of the Apps. So... if we find the center of ciruclation of the system that will ultimately become that GL low, and drop a nuclear bomb in it do you think that will disrupt it enough or create enough chaos to tip the tables in our favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't think you can just take the western most solution ie the Euro, and say they expect it to go West. Pretty certain if the Euro is onto something you will see all the other models that are SE trend West. Not saying it can't happen or won't I just don't think its fair to take that statement and say its coming West of the 12z Euro. As mentioned in other posts, not sure how much opportunity there is for this to come NW. If it can close off even sooner at 500 like the Euro and we slow / weaken that GL low I think all bets are off, just not confident it will happen. We always see the NW trend, but that seems to be more with systems on a more East to West trajectory that we want to see go underneath us, or moving up west of the Apps. So... if we find the center of ciruclation of the system that will ultimately become that GL low, and drop a nuclear bomb in it do you think that will disrupt it enough or create enough chaos to tip the tables in our favor? UMMM why are you all such Debbie Downers?? good Lord. !st & foremost it is out of our hands & what will be will be ! no amount of wishcasting or Debbie Downerism or even Staying away from jinxing us will change. all winter models have not gotten it right till VERY late in the going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UMMM why are such Debbie Downers?? good Lord. !st & foremost it is out of our hands & what will be will be ! no amount of wishcasting or Debbie Downerism or even Staying away from jinxing us will change. all winter models have not gotten it right till VERY late in the going that is true but this is a very different set up then our usual storms this winter. I hope Im wrong but Im going with a c-1 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UMMM why are you all such Debbie Downers?? good Lord. !st & foremost it is out of our hands & what will be will be ! no amount of wishcasting or Debbie Downerism or even Staying away from jinxing us will change. all winter models have not gotten it right till VERY late in the going Well, there is no real support for a storm right now...I'd say you are the one wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, there is no real support for a storm right now...I'd say you are the one wishcasting. I haven't said a thing ! Again what happens is not up to me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, there is no real support for a storm right now...I'd say you are the one wishcasting. go back & look at the posts & tell who is Debbie Downers & wishcasting & who is a realist ! WN area always gets F'd anyways so I am used too It! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ripped from the central PA thread: "There are several Euro Ensembles which actually have the surface low tracking inland...west of Ocean City Maryland and then back northeast again near or just east of NYC. And by several I mean more than 15." - earthlight I really want to believe the Euro is correct, and might trend further North West. Just as mentioned not one single model has over 2 inches for Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ripped from the central PA thread: "There are several Euro Ensembles which actually have the surface low tracking inland...west of Ocean City Maryland and then back northeast again near or just east of NYC. And by several I mean more than 15." - earthlight I really want to believe the Euro is correct, and might trend further North West. Just as mentioned not one single model has over 2 inches for Pittsburgh. if this was any other year than this I would say yay king euro. Lets wait and see, atleast we have some ENS on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi JMA very close to ECWMF control and its ensembles on precip totals through Friday morning. All 3 west of GFS and is ensembles HMMMMMMMMMMMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://imgur.com/ShpMO1k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BTW 2 storms rapidly follow this se through the midwest to the east coast in Friday-Sunday period. Both bring more snow, lesser tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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