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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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Not sure how much stock to put in the radar returns developing in Kansas with the upper low.

 

That area could expand a bit more northeastward, however the gfs wants to push the upper low a bit more south.

 

I guess we'll see this evening.

 

 

I wonder if that's why the NWS is staying the course with their forecast?

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I'm used to seeing storms dissappear 5 days out. This one vanished less than 72 hous out. We went from over a foot to 3 inches very close to the event. Models showed a historic event.

I really thought on Friday that 6+ inches was a lock.

Part of that IMO was due to the faster background flow than we've seen in recent heavy snowfall events.  I just made a quick calculation on the ESRL PSD page, and the background west-east flow averaged from 30N to 40N over the central US recently is about double what it was leading up to the 5 Feb 2010 snowstorm.  This faster flow gave less time for the models to have better observations of the shortwaves.

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Their all different people actually. They've all been here way before you were around. This is getting ridiculous, just drop it and get over it. Even if he was wrong it doesn't make you look any better by rambling on about it. 

Have to agree. I mean I know we can all get on edge at times, especially when storms bust or miss but we all seem to come to these boards for the same reason. Contribution, learning, etc as we all have some sort of passion for weather. I have lurked here for many years but finally broke down and created an account to help contribute what I can. 

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Top 3 busts for me… 1. OV blizzard of '07  -  Parts of ohio saw 30 inches.   2. Super bowl blizzard of '09  - Massive storm showed up that had everyone talking up until a couple days, eventually ended up OTS. 3. This one right here.. Just when we all thought it was a lock to see at least a 6 inch storm we get a kick below the belt less than 48 hours out.  

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Naming these storms seems so absurd to me. When you give every storm a name and don't have a real-time intensity scale like the Saffir-Simpson, every winter storm is sold to the public in the same manner, so most people lose the ability to distinguish a minor event from a life-threatening one.  Apparent busts such as this storm only serve to reinforce that effect.  Part of me wonders how much longer until the weather channel decides to market good weather by naming strong high-pressure systems. I miss the old days :(

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I'm not sure that's necessary or appropriate.

I wasn't able to follow the demise of this storm appropriately, as I went to Chicago for the Pens game. I will be honest though and say I am also stunned in how much models changed from when I left on Friday. I told my coworkers that a foot was possible but I am only comfortable saying six inches. I said that the models were more in agreement than they were for most of the season. I thought I was being cautious as I expected some wobble as the energy being still offshore. Not like this though. This is a disappointment and definitely a learning experience.

Yeah, I was joking with coworkers friday saying when I left for the day saying cya tuesday, assuming we would get a snow day tomorrow. I never really bought into the 12-16-18 inch idea but thought for sure getting a solid 4-8 inches with the heaviest over night Sudnay into Monday was going to be very disruptive / schools closed etc. Never thought the whole thing would go 200-300 miles South in such a short period of time.

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I know winters not over but after this bust, Its over for me. I can't get excited tracking these storms anymore, this last storm took the excitement away from me. I just want to get away from weather for awhile. Hopefully we can see a big storm in the future, most likely it will be in April because the snow Gods hate us.

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Sometimes I wonder during difficult patterns if it is better to forecast the old school way. Ingest the parameters yourself and not rely on the models. However I probably would have thought hey it is March, no way this thing gets suppressed that far. And would have still busted horribly. Even though this storm isn't one for the books, the complexity and cold of this pattern is. At least in my short lifetime.

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Top 3 busts for me… 1. OV blizzard of '07  -  Parts of ohio saw 30 inches.   2. Super bowl blizzard of '09  - Massive storm showed up that had everyone talking up until a couple days, eventually ended up OTS. 3. This one right here.. Just when we all thought it was a lock to see at least a 6 inch storm we get a kick below the belt less than 48 hours out.  

 

I can add one to that. There was a potential major snowstorm back in early April of 1987. I can remember all of the local mets had a lot of us getting at least a foot the very night it was getting ready to start up. Joe Denardo had me in the 9-18 inch area on his map. I can remember the big flakes coming down that night and how excited I was as a kid. The next morning I woke up expecting to see a blizzard outside. What did I see when I looked out the window? Rain. It changed to rain over night. Complete bust. That was when I learned how cruel this area can be to anyone that loves snow. Yeah, it was early April, but I was just a kid and the mets seemed so confident about it. Big letdown. 

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The band moving through northern Missouri is looking better-consolidated than earlier. Another wave this evening and tonight could bring us into the 4-6" range that was predicted. We'd really only need a couple hours of decent intensity snow to get there.  Frankly at this point I'd rather not see more snow since it will only mess with our commutes tomorrow, but it's still something to watch.

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The band moving through northern Missouri is looking better-consolidated than earlier. Another wave this evening and tonight could bring us into the 4-6" range that was predicted. We'd really only need a couple hours of decent intensity snow to get there. Frankly at this point I'd rather not see more snow since it will only mess with our commutes tomorrow, but it's still something to watch.

Unlikely. The models are bad, but not that bad.

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The band moving through northern Missouri is looking better-consolidated than earlier. Another wave this evening and tonight could bring us into the 4-6" range that was predicted. We'd really only need a couple hours of decent intensity snow to get there.  Frankly at this point I'd rather not see more snow since it will only mess with our commutes tomorrow, but it's still something to watch.

I see that too but looking at the HRR's as that band moves into Ohio it takes a south easterly turn and goes by to the South. It looks like around midnight tonight some light snow will move back into the area for a few hours but should be an inch or less. Maybe 1-2 in the southern counties.

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Still rippin here in bethel-cars can't make it up the hill. Looks like about 3.5".....not bad for march-I'll take it!

Yeah im pushing 3". Would be pretty nice if this was the appetizer that it was supposed to be.

Im still keeping at least an occasional glance to the precip to the southwest. Looks better organized than before, so we'll see if any of that materializes in to an actual second wave for us

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The warning is now cancelled. Saw this coming of course.

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
253 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014


OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069-PAZ021-029-073-074-WVZ002>004-030500-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140303T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0015.140302T1953Z-140303T0500Z/
HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...
CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...
LIGONIER...DONEGAL...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE
253 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.


* ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY...2 TO 3 INCHES.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* WIND...NORTH 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW
COVERED ROADS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS
PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

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It's been a fun but frustrating winter, the arguing on here is ridiculous anymore though, not really worth reading anymore.

tsteel, are you anywhere near the Villa up there in Cabot? Its been a favorite restaurant of almost everyone in my Family since I can remember.

 

My Aunt and Uncle were there up there once a couple of years ago and Troy Polamalu and his wife were there. Nobody bothered him during his meal so he paid everyone's tab. Pretty cool story.

 

Anyways, its been a good winter. Close to if not surpassed 60+ inches of snow and record cold and we're likely to add at least a little more to that.  I'd welcome a -EPO next winter too especially if it could invite it's cousin -NAO, and we throw in weak to moderate Nino. I wonder what could have been had this winter had some better blocking in the Atlantic, maybe we break 80 and set an all time snow record.

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