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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

424 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

...EARLY MARCH SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ...

OHZ049-050-057>059-068-PAZ021-029-073-074-WVZ002-003-020530-

/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0004.140302T1800Z-140303T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0006.140302T0500Z-140303T1800Z/

HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-ALLEGHENY-

WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-BROOKE-OHIO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...

CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...

WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...

BETHANY...WHEELING

424 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM

EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM

EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND END BY EARLY

MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

* WIND...NORTH 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SNOW OR ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL

VERY HAZARDOUS. REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988... POSTING TO THE NWS

PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

$$

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PBZ:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
REGARDING THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FINER DETAIL
WAS FINALLY ABLE TO BE ADDED WITH INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET DURING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN ALL ALONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT INITIALLY PASSING
THROUGH...BUT WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...DYNAMICS WILL BE MARGINAL AND
TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL BE AROUND
15KFT ON AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE AREAS OF
INCREASED OMEGA BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SO WITH THE MAJORITY
OF SNOW EXPECTED TO BE OF THE PLATE AND ROD VARIETY...OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND A WARNING HOISTED PITTSBURGH AND AREAS
TO THE SOUTH. THOSE PRODUCTS SHOULD BE SEEN FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...BUT IN GENERAL...WE ARE LOOKING FOR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
NEAR ONE FOOT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TO 3-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO
INCREASED...AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LARGELY BE OVER BY MONDAY
EVENING. WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING TAKING PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT...TUESDAY MORNING COULD SHAPE UP TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND LOWERED FORECAST MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.
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I'll bet there will be a trend for this storm to come north by 50 to 75 miles by the time early tomorrow arrives. The trend early this week was for this storm to drive right through Western Pa and now the maps have this storm swamping the middle part of WV and Virginia. Hard to believe that it was that far off just a few days ago. I still say just a little south of Morgantown it the best area for heavy snow but as it comes north, we should see a few more inches...6-10 from Pa State line border to Butler.

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Just saw the wswarning posted by the nws.

I'm going to stay closer to their forecast.

I still feel that the waa will be strong enough to provide decent accumulations with the second wave, even if said wave tracks further south.

At this point I'm going with our climo, past storm history, and a gut. ( which I have a bit to much of right now ). Lol

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