tsteel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 @AccuRayno: american models trending north.looking at 500 mb, it makes sense.NAM farthest North.be in work before noon to record video.Just got up. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 TWC 650 x 366 (56.76K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well I wake and see that the trend wasn't our friend for the 00z models, but I see that the 6z are coming north. Hopefully the seasonal trend of North and west happens. It would be pretty disappointing if the one storm this year didn't trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z NAM is running now. The 6z NAM gave us a ton of moisture but I'm not sure how much of that is snow. The 850 freezing line goes right over Pittsburgh early on in the event. The 12z GFS will be interesting. Jumped way south yesterday in basically one run but has creeped back north a bit in the last two runs. Still uncertainty with this storm and we're close to it now. Sent from my XT897 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM Precip thru 36 hr 800 x 600 (41.65K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (35.33K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Through 42: Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (46.79K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 FWIW, I looked at a snow map for the 6z GFS and it had most of Allegheny County in the 6-10 range. Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The nam is the absolute worst model we have. This is another 200 mile shift. I think though that we are toast. Can't believe we went from looking at a foot plus to hoping for 3 inches in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Be Gentle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam has been all over the place... Don't think he can be even considered anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (183.94K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 can't wait to see Bernie's video...I really like his analysis.... I have a feeling black n gold....we might be in a decent spot down here in almost washington CO..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2-4 inches in agc. Fringed again. This will rank right up there with my most disappointing busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 2-4 inches in agc. Fringed again. This will rank right up there with my most disappointing busts. Still time to see that precip shield expand nw at bit, or even a slightly further north track of the second wave but I agree, pretty frustrating to see this again. I had my benchmark at 6, if I see 6 or more I'd be satisfied but looking like that's not going to happen. It's hard not to get expectations up when you see 12+ on the snow maps for 3-4 days in a row. Someone needs to pull out the old detour sign lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2-4 inches in agc. Fringed again. This will rank right up there with my most disappointing busts. yeah I don't have a good feeling about this one. The trend all winter has been north but of course it comes south this storm. This weather is screwing with us and unless we see a 50-100 mile shift we might not make warning criteria. I just don't comprehend how we go from 12+ to maybe 3-6 when the models were locked in for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Be Gentle That might be the worst map I've ever seen. Just kidding. Yeah, that probably looks about right. I'm thinking maybe 3-6 at this point for our area. I was really hoping the 12z GFS would move northward a little more but it didn't. Looks like it's dropping back south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Maybe If I go around telling everyone that we are going to get fringed it might trend North to spite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wstaude Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 There's a bright side to all of this - the city is VERY low on salt, and it's doubtful that they'd be able to keep side streets clean if a 6"+ event occurred. Given the timing of the heaviest precip and the current trend, thousands of people's Monday mornings will be much smoother and safer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Break out that detour sign! But man, certainly better to be in the so called Mon Valley screw zone this winter. Looks like a better shot for this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Someone needs to pull out the old detour sign lol It's funny you mention that because it looks like this storm is doing exactly what that detour sign map showed. At least from what I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We were fringed a lot this year so I'm thinking , we will see the precipitation shield bigger the advertised like usaual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nice map of the 12z GFS from the Central PA thread with counties overlay: I-70 is now like the PA/NY border was a couple days ago when we were bullseyed. 50 miles N is all we need to get everyone into that 6+.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nice map of the 12z GFS from the Central PA thread with counties overlay: I-70 is now like the PA/NY border was a couple days ago when we were bullseyed. 50 miles N is all we need to get everyone into that 6+.... Yeah it's still too early to give up on this storm, this can easily come north that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 "It all depends on the track of the storm"!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 can't wait to see Bernie's video...I really like his analysis.... I have a feeling black n gold....we might be in a decent spot down here in almost washington CO..... Not to be pessimistic, but we could actually be in the worst spot overall. Looks like mixing has become an issue again early for the 1st wave in our area while the 2nd wave still keeps most of the moisture to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When there is all despair , a small hint of hope appears !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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