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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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Well I wake and see that the trend wasn't our friend for the 00z models, but I see that the 6z are coming north. Hopefully the seasonal trend of North and west happens. It would be pretty disappointing if the one storm this year didn't trend north.

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12z NAM is running now. The 6z NAM gave us a ton of moisture but I'm not sure how much of that is snow. The 850 freezing line goes right over Pittsburgh early on in the event. The 12z GFS will be interesting. Jumped way south yesterday in basically one run but has creeped back north a bit in the last two runs. Still uncertainty with this storm and we're close to it now.

Sent from my XT897

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2-4 inches in agc. Fringed again.

This will rank right up there with my most disappointing busts.

Still time to see that precip shield expand nw at bit, or even a slightly further north track of the second wave but I agree, pretty frustrating to see this again. I had my benchmark at 6, if I see 6 or more I'd be satisfied but looking like that's not going to happen. It's hard not to get expectations up when you see 12+ on the snow maps for 3-4 days in a row.

 

Someone needs to pull out the old detour sign lol

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2-4 inches in agc. Fringed again.

This will rank right up there with my most disappointing busts.

yeah I don't have a good feeling about this one. The trend all winter has been north but of course it comes south this storm. This weather is screwing with us and unless we see a 50-100 mile shift we might not make warning criteria. I just don't comprehend how we go from 12+ to maybe 3-6 when the models were locked in for days.
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There's a bright side to all of this - the city is VERY low on salt, and it's doubtful that they'd be able to keep side streets clean if a 6"+ event occurred. Given the timing of the heaviest precip and the current trend, thousands of people's Monday mornings will be much smoother and safer.

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Nice map of the 12z GFS from the Central PA thread with counties overlay:

I-70 is now like the PA/NY border was a couple days ago when we were bullseyed. 50 miles N is all we need to get everyone into that 6+....

post-317-0-70077900-1393689691.jpg

Yeah it's still too early to give up on this storm, this can easily come north that much.

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can't wait to see Bernie's video...I really like his analysis.... :snowing: I have a feeling black n gold....we might be in a decent spot down here in almost washington CO.....

Not to be pessimistic, but we could actually be in the worst spot overall. Looks like mixing has become an issue again early for the 1st wave in our area while the 2nd wave still keeps most of the moisture to our south.

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