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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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We are still some 42 or so hours out from significant precip beginning.  Thus, there is still time for model forecasts to change.  Latest 12z Euro ensembles still show significant spread for 12z Mon.  I expect by tomorrow evening we should have a solid handle on what actually will occur.

 

On another note, Verszyla just posted 8-11" for the metro area: https://twitter.com/verz

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I don't see anything wrong with your map psu. Every option is still on the table. 6-10 is a good call at this point if you ask me. Don't let one poster discourage you, we all appreciate the effort.

I agree, your map is pretty close to the PITT NWS Maximum Case map, which they said they are leaning towards in the facebook post. I think its a good map given current guidance.

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Umm, could you please speak in correct sentences. You are impossible to read.

He is asking where is LTG after he made a mockery of the map I made. Saying after the last GFS my map looks decent.

I'm new here and got to ask, why do a few members have such hostility on here? None of us are pros or getting paid this is a hobby we all enjoy and we should help each other out.

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This is why Joe Denardo and Bob Kudzma always waited until 24 hours before the storm to give snow totals. This thing can come back North and we still get hammered but if we end up with 2-4...everyone will be complaining about how the mets suck and can't predict the weather. The problem is that the mets were the only ones that used to have access to the models. Now the long range models are being used to make specific forecasts by social media members.

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He is asking where is LTG after he made a mockery of the map I made. Saying after the last GFS my map looks decent.

I'm new here and got to ask, why do a few members have such hostility on here? None of us are pros or getting paid this is a hobby we all enjoy and we should help each other out.

You're not new here. I've read this board for years, along with eastern and it is obvious you are the infamous pittsburgh rants.

He would do the same thing as is going on right now...create multiple accounts to agree with him, and argue with himself also.

And also, I'm sorry, when stink. Bug. Post sentences. Like this. It is. Very hard. To read.

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You're not new here. I've read this board for years, along with eastern and it is obvious you are the infamous pittsburgh rants.

Dude, I don't even know who that is. They can do a ip check on me if they want.

I read here and signed up in Feb. I usually read Central Pa thread as I went to Penn State for my graduate 2 years ago, but moved to Pittsburgh NWS area.

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You're not new here. I've read this board for years, along with eastern and it is obvious you are the infamous pittsburgh rants.

He would do the same thing as is going on right now...create multiple accounts to agree with him, and argue with himself also.

And also, I'm sorry, when stink. Bug. Post sentences. Like this. It is. Very hard. To read.

Ok, where did I get mad that someone didn't agree with me?

I got mad cause I took time to make and post a map, something I don't see on here and one guy three responses to it was calling me insane, said I was wish casting, etc.. Not a thanks or good job and then discuss.

Last response to you BTW. I am herer to discuss and learn and help.

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People should wait before they decide to jump off a bridge.  Don't like putting too much stock into a 18z run that shifts like a couple hundred miles.

I agree with this. If we see this trend continue on 00z guidance its probably time to panic, jump ship, throw in the towel.. whatever you wanna call it.

 

I will admit I have a sick feeling after seeing the 18z GFS, it looks similar to GGEM now. The news is all about this storm tonight, interviewing the mayor and public works directors. It would be ironic if the whole thing missed us.

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Obviously every model run should be considered.

 

However, one thing we all know about southwest PA, is with our position west of the Mtns, warm air always wants to intrude.

 

Usually this is a bad thing for us, but this time it actually could help us.

Even with a stubborn PV, we still should get enough forcing from the warm jet to produce nice snowfall totals.

 

IMHO based on our climo.

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Obviously every model run should be considered.

However, one thing we all know about southwest PA, is with our position west of the Mtns, warm air always wants to intrude.

Usually this is a bad thing for us, but this time it actually could help us.

Even with a stubborn PV, we still should get enough forcing from the warm jet to produce nice snowfall totals.

IMHO just going on our climo.

That's why I think this will still end up north. How often have we seen these things keep bumping north until we turn to rain after being forecasted all snow two days out?

Of course, this will be the time it stays south.

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