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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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Thus why I say don't live & die with each Model run, ESPECIALLY this winter ! Models have SUCKED

 

Not sure that this is an illustration of "models sucking" - just that a lot of people will reach the top end as modeled. No complaints there.

 

(Time sensitive, keeping in mind anything 18Z or later already had snow that fell)

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

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Not sure that this is an illustration of "models sucking" - just that a lot of people will reach the top end as modeled. No complaints there.

 

(Time sensitive, keeping in mind anything 18Z or later already had snow that fell)

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

well Considering JV of KDKA  HUGs the GFS to death & Fr. Night said 1 MAYBE some spots will get 2 inches because that is what the DFS said considering I have already almost 3 Inches in what I term a Snow Hole & outlying areas around here have 3 Inches already 

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well Considering JV of KDKA  HUGs the GFS to death & Fr. Night said 1 MAYBE some spots will get 2 inches because that is what the DFS said considering I have already almost 3 Inches in what I term a Snow Hole & outlying areas around here have 3 Inches already 

 

I've never seen JV *not* be conservative, especially in his delivery.

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News stations r never correct. Ever since Jeff v. Stomped Dennis bowmans 6-10 forcast to 1-2 inches on big storm feb 2010. He lost all creditabity with me.

I think time has clouded this a little - lol.

In the morning Bowman had 8-12". Later in the day, JV moved that just south had the city at 4-8". NWS was at 8-14".

What I thought was poor about JV is that we had 12" at the 11 PM news, with socked in radar, and the Oz GFS showing 18" additional. If you backed out the 8" that fell since 7 PM, we were expecting another 10". His final forecast was 12-14"!

So thats where he lost me. The TV mets here just thought it was low probability at first to get in to those 20"+ snowfalls, and it probably was even though it happened. So the bigger issue was the lack of adjustment once it was obviously high probability

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2010 was a huge bust on the high end. Absolutely no one except people who religiously follow the weather knew we were going to get almost 2 feet. I remember being at my house and I knew we were getting snow, but I heard 4-8 at first. So around 8 PM I go outside to shovel and I can already tell that we are going to exceed 8 inches. I check my weather app and sure enough each hour the accumulation and warning criteria kept changing. I still remember wpxis graphic which had a line through the city. 

I have never seen JV ever talk up and storm, not that its a bad thing.

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2010 was a huge bust on the high end. Absolutely no one except people who religiously follow the weather knew we were going to get almost 2 feet. I remember being at my house and I knew we were getting snow, but I heard 4-8 at first. So around 8 PM I go outside to shovel and I can already tell that we are going to exceed 8 inches. I check my weather app and sure enough each hour the accumulation and warning criteria kept changing. I still remember wpxis graphic which had a line through the city. 

I have never seen JV ever talk up and storm, not that its a bad thing.

BS lost of Meteorogists were, Their was a Guy from the New England News Network who had a chat just when that storm was hitting & a Bunch of us WPa.s  went on & ask him & when we told him what the NWS & Stations said he replied with OMG you will get at Least a Foot of snow & that is because of mixing problems & then he went through all kinds of things & said I think yopu will end up with at 20 inches! that was a Guy Nowhere Near W Pa. 

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I mean no. Local. TV. People. Did. Predict. But. That shows u how them lows that transfer are imposible to predict. I tracked that storm and a couple models had us getting crushed. And it kept trending that day of the storm. Better. And better. I stayed up most of the night for that one. I knew I would never see that much snow fall in that short window again. I didn't want to miss

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No one predicted 6 inches. Morning or after noon of that storm. It started at 5 pm iish. On a Friday. All Pgh forecasters. Really low balled it. Except Dennis bowman.

Thats factually incorrect. They were very low, but it was 4-8" and 8-12" type low. The NWS was 8-12", but was advertising 14" lolipops even prior to the start. They were the best and adjusted as the event when on. Had chills reading their discussions that night.

With totals in the 20" to 26" range, all local forecasts were horribly low. But again, it wasnt *quite* as bad as predicting 1-2" or 3-5"

Many of us on the old Easternuswx site spent in excess of 20 hours that week watching that come together, and the topic of the forecasts had been a common one. Unfortunately those threads with a lot of that are now lost with the site

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I think time has clouded this a little - lol.

In the morning Bowman had 8-12". Later in the day, JV moved that just south had the city at 4-8". NWS was at 8-14".

What I thought was poor about JV is that we had 12" at the 11 PM news, with socked in radar, and the Oz GFS showing 18" additional. If you backed out the 8" that fell since 7 PM, we were expecting another 10". His final forecast was 12-14"!

So thats where he lost me. The TV mets here just thought it was low probability at first to get in to those 20"+ snowfalls, and it probably was even though it happened. So the bigger issue was the lack of adjustment once it was obviously high probability

Yes, this is how I remember their forecasts as well.  Also, WPXI had 4-8" during the evening news as the storm was beginning, while hyping the debut of their brand new radar.  Re: the heavy totals, they are more of a mesoscale issue and they're hard to predict more than a few hours out...unlike synoptic-scale features.  Still, Mother Nature always has the upper hand, ha, as we remember from that early December rain to snow bust this winter.

 

Jeff Verszyla seems like a good met overall. He is just adamant about not hyping.  When you consider that recent history has 7 years between 12"+ snow events at KPIT, you might be hesitant to go for high totals in any storm. 

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Yes, this is how I remember their forecasts as well.  Also, WPXI had 4-8" during the evening news as the storm was beginning, while hyping the debut of their brand new radar.  Re: the heavy totals, they are more of a mesoscale issue and they're hard to predict more than a few hours out...unlike synoptic-scale features.  Still, Mother Nature always has the upper hand, ha, as we remember from that early December rain to snow bust this winter.

 

Jeff Verszyla seems like a good met overall. He is just adamant about not hyping.  When you consider that recent history has 7 years between 12"+ snow events at KPIT, you might be hesitant to go for high totals in any storm. 

One thing that I noticed with the FEB 2010 storm is I was shoveling every couple hours and I used a snow board to get my totals by cleaning it off every couple hours. I remember going out at midnight and I had 12 inches already accumulated and my last 2 measurements were 1.5 inches per hour. I believe the NWS site was calling for an additional 1-3 or 2-4 overnight. I called NWS Pit with my skywarn # to give an update. I told the gentleman that I was still getting 1.5 per hour rates and the radar was crazy. He was very nonchalant about it when I told him. Then I woke up at 8:00 am and had 10 more inches of snow on my snow board. Everyone busted and especially overnight where I picked up a near additional foot. Nobody expected that.

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I just have that feeling we get fringed from this storm. Its just one of those things that feel like philly will cash in just like the rest of the winter. Good night all, hopefully the gfs or euro shows some hope like the NAM

 

Certainly wouldn't be the first time we get fringed. It has already trended west on the models just to get to this. I'd be shocked if it trended even more west enough to give us a better hit at least. Not getting my hopes up, but I'll keep an eye on it like anything else. And of course, the NAM isn't very reliable at that range anyway.

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Certainly wouldn't be the first time we get fringed. It has already trended west on the models just to get to this. I'd be shocked if it trended even more west enough to give us a better hit at least. Not getting my hopes up, but I'll keep an eye on it like anything else. And of course, the NAM isn't very reliable at that range anyway.

Something needs to happen with that low in the lakes or its congrats I-95... If it was a feature we needed to hold its ground it would go poof but since we need it gone it will likely strengthen as we get closer. :facepalm:

 

12z NAM looks east but it's at the end of the run right now, should be interesting to see what other guidance shows.

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Something needs to happen with that low in the lakes or its congrats I-95... If it was a feature we needed to hold its ground it would go poof but since we need it gone it will likely strengthen as we get closer. :facepalm:

12z NAM looks east but it's at the end of the run right now, should be interesting to see what other guidance shows.

not looking good for us to be honest. Our area just has a very very tough time getting a huge storm. Wheres the southeast ridge now when we need it, oh thats right its retreating even though it kept getting stronger in Jan.

Final note, I am going to look at the 12z Euro if there is any sign of hope I will tune in to the models. But if there is no hope I am just going to stop looking and hope that we get a surprise.

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not looking good for us to be honest. Our area just has a very very tough time getting a huge storm. Wheres the southeast ridge now when we need it, oh thats right its retreating even though it kept getting stronger in Jan.

Final note, I am going to look at the 12z Euro if there is any sign of hope I will tune in to the models. But if there is no hope I am just going to stop looking and hope that we get a surprise.

This storm wont be fully sampled until some point tomorrow, so no use giving up on the threat just yet even if EURO moves East.

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This storm wont be fully sampled until some point tomorrow, so no use giving up on the threat just yet even if EURO moves East.

i just feel like I am a jinx. Every time I tell people to look out for a storm we get a bad trend. So I am keeping my mouth shut and just hoping.
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