meatwad Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 KPIT in 14-16 stripe. Good job gfs. Trend. More amped. I forgot who said that a few days ago. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I jumped the gun a little bit, it shifted south with the heavier stuff a little but we stay about the same. I'd still like to see it come back a little north at 0z. This run has me a little worried about a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This will wiggle back an forth next day. Then were money. This storm is starting in 2 days and a few hours. And these 12 z models have some sampling and they haven't really jumped in any direction for past 6 days. I hope tonight's fully sampled models keep up with suddle changes We shall c. But looking good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What reasoning is behind your south trend. When all Ohio and pa been in. Snow stripe for most models and past 6-7 days ??? And historically march storms trend north. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well to agree more with u. I thought about more suppressed. Because this is a much colder. Winter than we had in a long time so this march isn't like any other march. It's like late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The gfs moved slightly south at 0z, maybe 10-15 miles, now maybe another 25-35. WIth the euro being a tiny bit more south than the gfs and the cmc being well south it seems like it still has some room to trend that way. Hopefully the euro ticks north again like it did at 0z then the 18zgfs comes back a little north. I just don't want to see this thing trend south from here until sunday morning. Either way were getting snow, and a good bit. I'm sure we'd all be happy with a 4-8 storm here, but once these models start dangling history in your face you start to want every inch lol. It's funny how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, I actually don't see it trending much farther south now after looking at it some more. But the 12Z GFS did lose alot of precip for some reason compared to the last 3 runs. But its just one run. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowice-and-delays-midwest-to/2430839568001?channel=top_story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That pv. Is strong and I'm. Hoping it doesn't suppress this storm down to low end totals. That what is great about these storms. Nothing in concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z run definitely trended south, but I wouldn't be alarmed about that just yet. I can remember all the model watching we did in 2010 and the GFS did the exact same thing just a day or two out. Went south and people were panicing about it. It ended up coming back north and you know the rest. Not saying that will definitely happen here, but going by history with the GFS, it's still very possible. Plus, we still have the EURO to look at in a while. A lot still on the table here. Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bernie Rayno has the sweet spot of 6-12" from I-80 to the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Remember tonight's big. Full sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hey live 189 yards from turn pike. Lol. I think the swath of 6-12. Will be much bigger maybee I 80 to. Pa south border. And I'm thinking a 10-16 strips in between there somewere. Not sure yet. I really thing a lot of folks in pa an Ohio will get 6. But the question is who get the money snow. Stripe. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sweet nortpgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CMC is still terrible. What happens to all of the moisture? Oh well atleast the Euro and Gfs still are a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CMC is still terrible. What happens to all of the moisture? Oh well atleast the Euro and Gfs still are a good hit We still need that last jog north a bit on all models and we will be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, not sure whats going on with the cmc but it still lays down 5-8 inches, without ratios. So maybe make that 6-10. Either way, this still beats worrying about mixing. At this point it's all about how much snow were going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, not sure whats going on with the cmc but it still lays down 5-8 inches, without ratios. So maybe make that 6-10. Either way, this still beats worrying about mixing. At this point it's all about how much snow were going to get. Yes I agree. Between the NAM and the GFS we are looking at close to 5-7 inches. If we can move a little further north than we can get into the higher totals but at least it is nice looking at a minimum decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm happy with. 6-10. If we get more so be it just imagine. A foot of 9 or 10 inches new snow. With no melt. For 4 or 5 days complimants of pv express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12gfs spits out .8, It was over 1.1 for the last couple days. I'm guessing better ratios is what helps the totals not drop off too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z run definitely trended south, but I wouldn't be alarmed about that just yet. I can remember all the model watching we did in 2010 and the GFS did the exact same thing just a day or two out. Went south and people were panicing about it. It ended up coming back north and you know the rest. Not saying that will definitely happen here, but going by history with the GFS, it's still very possible. Plus, we still have the EURO to look at in a while. A lot still on the table here. Sent from my XT897 Yeah, its South, looks like I-80 north gets very little on the 12z GFS, we are still in pretty good shape though. I just want to get a nice 6-10 inch storm, and maybe a snow day Monday. If it keeps trending South though things might start to fall apart. Hopefully the Euro is similar to 00z or a touch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, our savior Bernie Rayno seems to think the gfs is too far south. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dennis bowman said Saturday night-Sunday am we might get 1-3" or something then the heavy stuff Sunday evening monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Central Pa folks are saying the ensembles are north of the OP 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro went south. I am losing hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro went south. I am losing hope. Why? It sounds like it still gives .75 inches of qpf with 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I lied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Per the other thread, euro is a good hit for everyone south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Really hard to get a read on these model runs until a map is posted. A lot of misinformation being posted. I was kind of guilty of it earlier with the gfs. A lot of anxiety with this one ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.