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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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This will wiggle back an forth next day. Then were money. This storm is starting in 2 days and a few hours. And these 12 z models have some sampling and they haven't really jumped in any direction for past 6 days. I hope tonight's fully sampled models keep up with suddle changes We shall c. But looking good so far

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The gfs moved slightly south at 0z, maybe 10-15 miles, now maybe another 25-35. WIth the euro being a tiny bit more south than the gfs and the cmc being well south it seems like it still has some room to trend that way. Hopefully the euro ticks north again like it did at 0z then the 18zgfs comes back a little north. I just don't want to see this thing trend south from here until sunday morning. Either way were getting snow, and a good bit. I'm sure we'd all be happy with a 4-8 storm here, but once these models start dangling history in your face you start to want every inch lol. It's funny how that works. 

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12z run definitely trended south, but I wouldn't be alarmed about that just yet. I can remember all the model watching we did in 2010 and the GFS did the exact same thing just a day or two out. Went south and people were panicing about it. It ended up coming back north and you know the rest. Not saying that will definitely happen here, but going by history with the GFS, it's still very possible. Plus, we still have the EURO to look at in a while. A lot still on the table here.

Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk

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Hey live 189 yards from turn pike. Lol. I think the swath of 6-12. Will be much bigger maybee I 80 to. Pa south border. And I'm thinking a 10-16 strips in between there somewere. Not sure yet. I really thing a lot of folks in pa an Ohio will get 6. But the question is who get the money snow. Stripe. Stay tuned.

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Yeah, not sure whats going on with the cmc but it still lays down 5-8 inches, without ratios. So maybe make that 6-10. Either way, this still beats worrying about mixing. At this point it's all about how much snow were going to get.

Yes I agree. Between the NAM and the GFS we are looking at close to 5-7 inches.

If we can move a little further north than we can get into the higher totals but at least it is nice looking at a minimum decent amount. 

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12z run definitely trended south, but I wouldn't be alarmed about that just yet. I can remember all the model watching we did in 2010 and the GFS did the exact same thing just a day or two out. Went south and people were panicing about it. It ended up coming back north and you know the rest. Not saying that will definitely happen here, but going by history with the GFS, it's still very possible. Plus, we still have the EURO to look at in a while. A lot still on the table here.

Sent from my XT897

Yeah, its South, looks like I-80 north gets very little on the 12z GFS, we are still in pretty good shape though. I just want to get a nice 6-10 inch storm, and maybe a snow day Monday.

 

If it keeps trending South though things might start to fall apart. Hopefully the Euro is similar to 00z or a touch north.

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