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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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GFS trending even colder this morning. Looks like mixing is becoming less and less likely, although still something to keep an eye on. As long as this thing doesn't start pushing more and more south with each run, we're in good shape. Still a lot of time left for things to change either way. From what I gather, the EURO still seems to be the most northerly solution of all the models while the rest are pretty close to what the GFS is currently showing. Someone correct me if I'm wrong if that's not the case.

Sent from my XT897

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Well I see the Euro is about the same as the 12z. Maybe a bit south, but definitely more QPF. The 6z Gfs hammers our area with almost 2 ft. Still have a few days to go but so far its looking good.

Seems like as things are modeled right now, we are good with the Euro which is the furthest North, and we are good on the GGEM which is the furthest South. Fingers crossed we don't see any big changes because right now we have a nice buffer being right in the middle of guidance, starting to feel optimistic about this one. :)

 

If this plays out well, do I get the vote to start the thread for next winter? ;)

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It's been a while but I was checking the apps on my phone just to see their forecast---the usual suspects and only WeatherBug gave totals. Basically between Sunday it had us getting 11-19 inches. So that 1 to 2 foot assessment from the 6z Gfs must be what they are using to give their prediction this far out. We will see. If this goes as planned it will make up for all the nickel and dime storms that we have had all season.

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Looks like Dennis B is on board!! Already mentioning models showing over 12"!.... Love it-watch Jeff V still not even mention anything other than "the track still has to be ironed out".....haha

Yeah he mentioned yesterday morning there was a storm for Sunday into Monday that needed to be watched as it had the potential to drop several inches of snow. Made me feel like a kid again. I'd watch the evening news hoping to hear hints of a snow storm at the end of the long range forecast. When one was in the offing I'd time it so I could switch channels and watch all 3 stations weather forecast lol.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1038 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014

OHZ050-059-PAZ014-016-021>023-029-073>076-WVZ002>004-271645-

ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-FAYETTE PA-

FAYETTE RIDGES PA-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-MARSHALL WV-

OHIO WV-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-WESTMORELAND RIDGES PA-

1038 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT ALLEGHENY...ARMSTRONG...EXTREME NORTH

CENTRAL MARSHALL...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...EXTREME SOUTHERN

JEFFERSON...INDIANA...NORTHEASTERN BELMONT...NORTHERN FAYETTE...

OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...SOUTHERN BROOKE...WASHINGTON AND

WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

AT 1034 AM EST...A SNOW SQUALL WAS ALONG A LINE FROM 7 MILES

NORTHWEST OF KITTANNING TO BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS SNOW SQUALL WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER

OF A MILE. ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND SLICK. TAKE

CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WINDSOR HEIGHTS... WHEELING... WEST LIBERTY...

WARWOOD... FRANKLIN... CLEARVIEW...

BETHANY... WEXFORD... SEWICKLEY...

SAXONBURG... IMPERIAL... GIBSONIA...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING

TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER

@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4050 7890 4011 7918 4009 7924 4002 7931

4002 8093 4093 7963 4093 7880 4072 7879

$$

34

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0z European ensemble mean & spread, along with deterministic:  http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/  Go to temperatures valid at 0z Mon.  Look at the map on the right.  Deep purples-magentas indicate a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast.  I expect the uncertainty to dwindle once the main s/w arrives on the West Coast.  This may not occur until Saturday night.  I think folks should keep in mind that background patterns can have an influence on how good your medium range forecast is.  If we have a slow background flow (not the case here), the systems are moving slowly and thus they'll be over land longer, which means that they will be sampled better for a longer period of time.  This gives meteorologists higher confidence X days out.  However, in a faster background flow, such as our current set-up, systems move more quickly, spending less time over the better-observed North American raob network.  So, although a forecast X days out may have done well for a storm years ago, a forecast for the same X days out now may still do worse because the systems haven't been observed well enough yet.

 

Bottom line...I recommend waiting until ensemble spread goes down before significantly increasing your confidence that a given solution will occur.

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I think all in here no from past. That. Models are never accurate to a degree. Just a tool. However. When all models are showing basically the same thing for 4-5 days and are not budging. Except strength and temps. With high up north. And a lot of ingrediants in place. I think I put a lot more stock into models now. Because of all the aforementioned things. But I still now this can turnout sunny and 65 on Monday. Each day that nears r chances increase a little better

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0z European ensemble mean & spread, along with deterministic:  http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/  Go to temperatures valid at 0z Mon.  Look at the map on the right.  Deep purples-magentas indicate a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast.  I expect the uncertainty to dwindle once the main s/w arrives on the West Coast.  This may not occur until Saturday night.  I think folks should keep in mind that background patterns can have an influence on how good your medium range forecast is.  If we have a slow background flow (not the case here), the systems are moving slowly and thus they'll be over land longer, which means that they will be sampled better for a longer period of time.  This gives meteorologists higher confidence X days out.  However, in a faster background flow, such as our current set-up, systems move more quickly, spending less time over the better-observed North American raob network.  So, although a forecast X days out may have done well for a storm years ago, a forecast for the same X days out now may still do worse because the systems haven't been observed well enough yet.

 

Bottom line...I recommend waiting until ensemble spread goes down before significantly increasing your confidence that a given solution will occur.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

I think we all would agree, despite the uncertainty, its getting tough to keep from foaming at the mouth looking at some of these "clown maps" :snowing:  Especially the one posted above, 18-20 inch bulls eye over SW PA! lol

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Thanks for the explanation.

 

I think we all would agree, despite the uncertainty, its getting tough to keep from foaming at the mouth looking at some of these "clown maps" :snowing:  Especially the one posted above, 18-20 inch bulls eye over SW PA! lol

You're welcome.  I do agree those snowfall maps are exciting.  My hope is that PIT cashes in after enduring all the cold this winter.

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