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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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Too far out but from what I am reading the pattern is really good and looks to be for a few weeks. 

Yes.  Unfortunately due to the fast background flow (tight temperature gradient across the US), we may not have a stable forecast until Saturday night, and that's if the forecast for merely the main s/w reaching the West Coast is right.  Setup is not the same as say Feb 2010 which had a much slower background flow to work with.

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Amazing how often that 850 just sits right over top of our area on these model runs. It would be nice if Monday's potential storm could just trend a little bit colder so none of us has to worry about mixing issues. I don't know what all of the models are saying, just going by the GFS right now. They seem to all be pretty close to each other now from what I've been reading.

Sent from my XT897

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Looks colder with this run as well. Keeps freezing line down on the border now. Would be nice to keep it down there from here on out.

I agree, temps drop from the upper twenties into the teens while snow is falling. I did notice on the cobb output KPIT had around .7 but KAGC had over 1 inch qpf. Not sure what that's about but hopefully we don't see the precip shield start to slide much further South.I'm worried that we have an awesome solution but its 5 days out lol.. ah the trials and tribulations of a weenie.

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Any model solutions are gonna make us crazy at this point. This is my approach, I know theres cold in place and storms coming. Looks like we are in good position. Every model except the Euro has changed its snow axis every run. Just last night, the CMC was north of us and now its south??!

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Anyway 12z Euro. Looks pretty warm. South east of Pgh sees little but then AGH county and sw Pa sees 12+. Wow what a huge cutoff. These models are still spitballing.

Sounds like the Euro is more amped, almost like an apps runner vs a wave or over running precip? Could be a blip, ensembles will be interesting.

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This looks good so far. Maybee if board agrees. We can add carma to the good models and the good set up. If we get a15-19 incher. Let it stay around for a week. Then melt slow and bring on spring.i need to work. These brutal cold keeps me inside. But hit miss monstor storms. I will never not be happy about. Them. I'm hoping these models nailed this 6 or 7 days out. It's 4 and change and holding ground. Sorry sometimes I ramble on.

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I'm thinking this is going to be a app runner. Is it easier for the models to predict as opposed to the storms were lows transfer. And things of that nature. Is there any historic storms that were app runner that's models pick up consistently 6-8 days out. ??????????

App runners seem to be exceedingly rare.

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I'm thinking this is going to be a app runner. Is it easier for the models to predict as opposed to the storms were lows transfer. And things of that nature. Is there any historic storms that were app runner that's models pick up consistently 6-8 days out. ??????????

I thought the Blizzard of 93 was.

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App runners seem to be exceedingly rare.

They are. I think the January 1994 storm was an app runner. I picked up 27 inches from that storm when I lived in Westmoreland County. The eastern part of the state got rain. Of course, we weren't privy to the models back then, so I don't know if that showed up a week in advance or not.
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Just checked out the Op 18z gfs and 12z Euro.

 

Still lookiing pretty decent, although I did see that odd little notch southeast of Pgh on the Euro, that was mentioned earlier.

 

Just playing devils advocate here, If you remember during 2/5/10 ( which this upcoming storm resembles), along the U.S. 119 corridor from about Mt Pleasant to Morgantown, there was an area of warm air that kept the precip rain until almost 9:00 pm for some places.

 

I doubt the Euro would pick up on such a small occurance, just saying.

 

Actually over on the Accuweather pgh forum, the posts from the 2/5/10 storm are still available, interesting read.

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It's been warm down in south. Gulf. This thing could get extra juice on it. When it swings down south. Pick up a lot of moisture. And. 2 days of snow or rain or both or partly cloudy. Also ice. This storm is already on Facebook. Saying potential early march storm. Were 100 million could be affected by snow rain or ice. And it said. Possible. ???

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I really think. The trend on the models. Could be a little warmer. But a lot more moisture. I really think these models could be underplaying the gulf moisture. So I'm thinking a more amped system will be the trend. With this we will need. A more southerly track but we are looking at a Big. H. To our north for CAA. So this will be a very fun one to track. Someone who is more experinced know off hand of any past ones that mimic this set up. ?????

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I really think. The trend on the models. Could be a little warmer. But a lot more moisture. I really think these models could be underplaying the gulf moisture. So I'm thinking a more amped system will be the trend. With this we will need. A more southerly track but we are looking at a Big. H. To our north for CAA. So this will be a very fun one to track. Someone who is more experinced know off hand of any past ones that mimic this set up. ?????

Yes-February 2010.....all that pacific moisture rides across and slammed into the cold air and the precip never ended!.....
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