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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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Just shoveled again. 3 inches of heavy wet snow. I think 2 of it fell in a one hour period this morning with this last batch. 

It was funny because last night's squall line, which I thought would be bigger dropped about 1/2 inch. Then this morning I was expecting an inch or less and get a 2 inch burst with Thundersnow. Never turned to rain here.

That band last night then some of the left overs only managed to drop about an inch for me too. I went outside at the height of the onslaught last night and you could see the flakes were rimmed so there was definitely a warm layer that was screwing with ratios. I ended up shoveling about a half inch of slush this morning after some plain rain possibly or just some melting not sure which. Not sure how much fell in the thunder snow band, wife said she didn't hear thunder around our house but rates looked pretty impressive on radar.

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So now that this event is on the way out, should we start a Pittsburgh / SWPA Banter thread and confine all the bust / local TV met discussion, and School closings stuff to that? I'd much prefer to keep this thread more about obs and discussion on upcoming weather.

 

I think we all realize the local TV weather stations are watered down so as to appeal to the average Joe who just wants to have an idea of what to expect and doesn't really care if they get 3 inches instead of 5. That's why we are all here, to further discuss these things since we have an above average passion for weather. In the past I would have said we didn't have enough posters in our region to even warrant another thread, but now its probably something worth considering.

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I would like to second that. I will be honest that I am afraid to post any in depth analysis because I am out of practice and am afraid that if I am slightly wrong I wouldn't get corrective feedback, but bashed instead. Also it would be nice if we could have post mortem discussions on why events weren't forecasted well instead of "they busted, they suck". Which in my honest opinion being an inch out of a range on either end isn't really a "bust". Yes it's an incorrect forecast, but it doesn't mean whoever generated the forecast had completely flawed thinking in their analysis.

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I do agree on banter I don't agree on other things. Like school closings. Obs. There will be 2 post a day. If. Obs is only thing permitted // This thread is hopping. And new people are coming on. And that's the point new people new opinions. What weather is about. So if. It. Thunderstorms. I can't say. My power is out. Because people might get offended.

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Obs are about 80% of the thread. Only thing is we live in one of the most difficult areas to forecast. You have so many elements. Lakes, hills, mountains, etc. today was good case for just cause one person sees heavy snow someone 20 miles away may not. North won this event. East was slop and south was wet.

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I would like to second that. I will be honest that I am afraid to post any in depth analysis because I am out of practice and am afraid that if I am slightly wrong I wouldn't get corrective feedback, but bashed instead. Also it would be nice if we could have post mortem discussions on why events weren't forecasted well instead of "they busted, they suck". Which in my honest opinion being an inch out of a range on either end isn't really a "bust". Yes it's an incorrect forecast, but it doesn't mean whoever generated the forecast had completely flawed thinking in their analysis.

You should never feel that way. Your opinion and expertise are always welcome. If you feel someone is giving you a hard time let others know.

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Why cant this thread be about model and pattern analysis and then obs. The banter could be mets and busts and why we hate Bylsma and Fleury.

lol I agree, that's what I would like to see.

 

We can set it up however we want. The 2 things I mainly come here to see are obs, and discussions on upcoming / current weather events. I think those 2 things would drive the primary thread nicely. I just don't care to read all the other stuff when I'm trying to see whats going on. We want to keep it light and fun, but don't want people to feel like they can't share a forecast for fear of getting blasted if its wrong.

 

I'm not even against having some sort of postmortem discussions on an events as well if its done in a reasonable way. Instead of saying Jeff V busted badly, and leave it at that break down his forecast vs what actually happened. IE he forecasted 1-2 inches but the whole area got 3-5 and provide actual observations from NWS spotters etc to back it up. If you have reasoning why he was wrong feel free to add it. (personal attacks like he wants to be a sports caster rather then MET don't count)

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Thanks guys. Exactly! I just think it would be more constructive to give reasoning for opinions and teach people more. I think most news outlets were spot on for at least the northern half of the viewing area. But let's call it a "bust" for southern areas. Why exactly was that? Did areas start off the event warmer than predicted? Were dynamics over modeled and the column wasn't cooled as significantly as thought? If anyone looked at any soundings before the onset, there was a pretty significant warm nose but extremely low dewpoints so what's the correct call on if the column would collapse to wet bulb? Was that under modeled as usual for our area? And also I'm a weenie so thundersnow is so awesome! Doesn't anyone care why it happens? Did anyone in the area overperform? I know they did in central PA. Were the models poor with developing the banding? I just think all of these questions are interesting and would be great to discuss instead of point fingers and say all mets are horrible. Isn't that we all get mad about reading on Facebook? I know it's not everyone. Just a general thought. 

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Some people want to go back to 3 post a day. I beleive. As long as weather is being discuss Ed. U can talk anything. Or r we in Russia. And mccandwx. If u said 1 inch. And we got 100. I would not say a negative thing about u. Or your forcast. As most on here would not either. The fun part is the 50 different opinions. And the watching what happens. In the end. And because most people know weather is almost imposible to predict

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Yeah I just find it hard to find some good in-depth analysis on our area. The pattern after this warm up looks insane for March. Doesn't anyone want to talk about that. It looks like we have a chance for more snow with no warmup in site. The winter of 2014 marches on.

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Thanks guys. Exactly! I just think it would be more constructive to give reasoning for opinions and teach people more. I think most news outlets were spot on for at least the northern half of the viewing area. But let's call it a "bust" for southern areas. Why exactly was that? Did areas start off the event warmer than predicted? Were dynamics over modeled and the column wasn't cooled as significantly as thought? If anyone looked at any soundings before the onset, there was a pretty significant warm nose but extremely low dewpoints so what's the correct call on if the column would collapse to wet bulb? Was that under modeled as usual for our area? And also I'm a weenie so thundersnow is so awesome! Doesn't anyone care why it happens? Did anyone in the area overperform? I know they did in central PA. Were the models poor with developing the banding? I just think all of these questions are interesting and would be great to discuss instead of point fingers and say all mets are horrible. Isn't that we all get mad about reading on Facebook? I know it's not everyone. Just a general thought. 

Great points. I, like most people have been on these boards for 10 years now and I am just fascinated by the weather and learn more and more every year. The more people on here the better but I can do without the bashing too however sometimes I do get frustrated like everyone else when we miss out on the big storms.  I like to talk history and I like the observation posts because it many times will give us all a heads up on what it coming or what is going on in other areas. I am not a met but I have learned enough to anticipate the weather that is going to happen. Like I said earlier, I went to bed disappointed that I only picked up 1/2 inch because I knew that the morning would just give back end light snows. After the phone woke me up for my kids 2-hour delay I looked out and saw light snow and the roads in pretty good shape. I laid back down and within the hour thought I heard thunder and that is when I looked out and it was heavy snow. Whether the mets got it right or not I don't care. It is exciting when we get extreme weather (as long as there is no damage) and this winter we have had our share. Not disappointed at all. 

 

Now on to the models. It looks like maybe some severe weather Thursday into Friday and then a nasty cold front. Cold air behind it with possible clippers or more snow events.  It looks like the active pattern continues. :snowwindow:  :violin:

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Yeah I just find it hard to find some good in-depth analysis on our area. The pattern after this warm up looks insane for March. Doesn't anyone want to talk about that. It looks like we have a chance for more snow with no warmup in site. The winter of 2014 marches on.

Well if you trust the Accuweather 45 day forecast, 16 more inches in March for Pittsburgh lol. 

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Overall the forecasts were decent from the NWS for around the city, but were high for the counties to the south that got hardly anything where they were forecasted to get 1-2". Mixing was supposed to be the issue South, and the changeover to rain cutdown the totals. 

 

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Overall the forecasts were decent from the NWS for around the city, but were high for the counties to the south that got hardly anything where they were forecasted to get 1-2". Mixing was supposed to be the issue South, and the changeover to rain cutdown the totals. 

 

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Nice, Lets make something like this the standard for a postmortem on a storm. Show a map of what did happen vs what was forecast. If you've got the skills in meteorology to discuss why it happened feel free to add it. If you wanna discuss a "bust" or "bad call" use this as a template. If we all agree to try and follow this, I see no reason to create a separate thread. Just don't want to discourage others from posting or sharing thoughts, especially if they have something of value to add. Just my 2 cents.

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Snowmelt is on in full force today; it is going fairly quickly, at least at this latitude. Higher sun angle this time of year as well will make the winter's work but a memory by Thursday.

Warmth in this sector was underdeveloped by the models, and the moisture plume missed completely on round 2. I also think the first round was overdeveloped on guidance.

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