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Pittsburgh/Western PA Weather II


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I have a good feeling about this one. I think I - 70 north sees a solid 3-5 inches. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see most of AGH country with 4-5 with lollipop reports of 6 inches just north of the city. 

Cobb data for KPIT and KAGC is showing about 5.5 inches for both locations so your gut feeling may be onto something. :)

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Why is it that all models seem to be showing western pa as staying all snow, yet the NWS has us mixing for several hours? What are they seeing that the models are not?

This type of setup is conducive to mixing issues and....for whatever reason....is historically undermodeled in terms of warm air intruding

That said I think we see mostly snow with this one

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Why is it that all models seem to be showing western pa as staying all snow, yet the NWS has us mixing for several hours?  What are they seeing that the models are not?

 

I think where you and I are at, we'll see some mixing in the beginning for the reasons Burghblizz mentioned. The warmer air seems to get to us more times than not with these setups. I don't think it will last long once the low gets closer and colder air filters in.

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Why is it that all models seem to be showing western pa as staying all snow, yet the NWS has us mixing for several hours?  What are they seeing that the models are not?

from KPIT's 3:44 PM discussion:

 

PCPN TYPES WERE FCST USING CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL SOUNDINGS.

CONCERNED MDLS MAY BE OVERDOING THE OMEGA IN THE WARM AIR

ADVCTN...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS DYNAMIC COOLING AND ALLOWING

FOR MORE MIXED PCPN...ESP FM PIT SWD...SO INCLUDED A LITTLE MORE

OF A MIX ESP AT THE ONSET. A BRF PD OF MXG IS ALSO PSBL AS THE

FIRST ROUND OF PCPN MOVES THRU THE RGN.

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I think where you and I are at, we'll see some mixing in the beginning for the reasons Burghblizz mentioned. The warmer air seems to get to us more times than not with these setups. I don't think it will last long once the low gets closer and colder air filters in.

They might be looking upstream and seeing the freezing rain in OH too.

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That is the last thing I want to hear that it has started a head of schedule. I am at work and sounds like my drive home might, excuse my french, suck ass.

 

I thought I read somehwere that it would be starting between 9-12. In the advisory it says 7-10 though. Looks like it will start a little after 7. When are you done working?

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Ok thanks. !!!!!! I'm perplexed. I don't know what expect from this. I will give my 2 predictions 2-5 aldghenmy county. 4-7. 1/80 corridor. Includes u. Mr Youngstown. Allentwx. And nice warm up on wensday and Thursday and Friday. Will be nice to. C. A miniamal defrost mode. It's like we were in Russia. Olympics. And they are having are usaul winters.

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I will make my call for the area. South of the city will likely get a 2-4 inch snow, Pittsburgh Metro 3-6 inches, and then maybe an isolated 7 to 8 inch total up along I-80. 

 

It just adds to the snow pack, yet we will see melting starting tomorrow during the day then we could have a threat of severe thunderstorms on thursday into friday morning

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Lol. I am far from a met. No one in my family is a met.

However, I just want to read the forum, and make some observations. I don't want to read constant bashing. God knows the nws and locals deserve criticism sometimes, but the nws has been really good do far this year. Getting called for 1-2 and getting 2.5 is not a bust.

000

FXUS61 KPBZ 161511

AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1011 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION THROUGH

EARLY THIS WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A SHRTWV OVR OH WL TRACK E SPREADING LGT SNW INTO THE RGN. UPR

SPPRT AND DEEP MOISTURE IS LMTD...AND ACCUMS ARE EXPD TO BE GENLY

LESS THAN AN INCH

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000

FXUS61 KPBZ 161511

AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1011 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION THROUGH

EARLY THIS WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A SHRTWV OVR OH WL TRACK E SPREADING LGT SNW INTO THE RGN. UPR

SPPRT AND DEEP MOISTURE IS LMTD...AND ACCUMS ARE EXPD TO BE GENLY

LESS THAN AN INCH

Dude .. the ratio turned out to be 125:1.  Get over it.

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