Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You speak the truth. I'm actually working on a project up here to figure out what (of all available guidance) performs the best in the first 36 hours of the forecast. RGEM is consistently at the top of the list for Max/Min T and hourly temps. We find it to be really good with sky cover too. The RGEM is my favorite short-term model as well, it absolutely NAILED the Monday event here in Philly in terms of the rain/snow line. Kind of interesting how the RGEM can be so good in the short term, but the Canadian kind of stinks in the LR....You mets might be able to explain that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You speak the truth. I'm actually working on a project up here to figure out what (of all available guidance) performs the best in the first 36 hours of the forecast. RGEM is consistently at the top of the list for Max/Min T and hourly temps. We find it to be really good with sky cover too.I have been hawking the RGEM more since it nailed the thermal profiles on your NNE ice events when all other models were warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I have been hawking the RGEM more since it nailed the thermal profiles on your NNE ice events when all other models were warm. I don't have the stats to back it up, but it seems to be really good at nailing precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not sure yet...I've always thought it worth keeping half an eye on for a couple inches...but didn't expect it to come back to solid advisory level this close in...but we've seen far stranger than this. Its really only GFS and RGEM to a slightly lesser extent. Ukie is better than before, but still more like a refresher 1-2" type deal. A bunch of ther SREFs like it too, though its hard to give them any weight even at 48-60 hours. Maybe by tomorrow I'll give them a bit of weight. The Euro was ugly though that it keeps me cautious...but despite the Euro still being the best model, its had its misses this year on a few events. Well maybe the 18 Z inputs changed the outputs first, when I saw the total agreement on GEFS, huge red flag. If 0Z GEFS lock in again probably a good sig with the short lead time. Nam although a miss has a similar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You speak the truth. I'm actually working on a project up here to figure out what (of all available guidance) performs the best in the first 36 hours of the forecast. RGEM is consistently at the top of the list for Max/Min T and hourly temps. We find it to be really good with sky cover too. Yeah I've always liked it...it used to have a pretty solid warm/west/wet bias in coastals back in the day, but it seems to perform better in that department after some upgrades. Still might be a shade wet in some setups, but far better than before. Its done particularly well this winter with a lot of these scraper type storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Check out the vort digging at 144 hours on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't have the stats to back it up, but it seems to be really good at nailing precip types. The only stats I've run on it are for variables we actually have observations to verify off of (so pytpe and PoP are difficult to get hard numbers for). The only variables I've been less than impressed with is winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 just saw that ugh I should be sleeping going to foxwoods to play bingo in the morning and have to get up at 430 to get ready and go Check out the vort digging at 144 hours on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah I've always liked it...it used to have a pretty solid warm/west/wet bias in coastals back in the day, but it seems to perform better in that department after some upgrades. Still might be a shade wet in some setups, but far better than before. Its done particularly well this winter with a lot of these scraper type storms. Completely anecdotal with nothing to back this up, but I find it tends to perform best in set ups that would be stereotypically Canadian weather. Things like backdoor cold fronts in spring, cold air damming, upslope precip in the mountains. It seems to have a great handle on those features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Completely anecdotal with nothing to back this up, but I find it tends to perform best in set ups that would be stereotypically Canadian weather. Things like backdoor cold fronts in spring, cold air damming, upslope precip in the mountains. It seems to have a great handle on those features.Yes especially CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm thinking if the EURO trends towards the second shortwave trough then I will discount the NAM solution until it agrees with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes especially CAD When Kevin and I are on the same team on a storm it almost never fails. You naysayers ........ ye of little faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 When Kevin and I are on the same team on a storm it almost never fails. You naysayers ........ ye of little faith. Lol, Tag team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 not the same s/w but it works lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Actually that's the middle s/w .....the one discussed a couple of pages ago that looked good until yesterday when they dropped it in favor of the third missing . Interesting but need to see the euro on board. Nam was close. If this one happens that is what we saw in 95....every little threat morphed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm thinking if the EURO trends towards the second shortwave trough then I will discount the NAM solution until it agrees with the GFS.James I just saw your sig for the first time. Kudos brother, hope it works out well for you. Here's a bit of advice, don't take what people write personally , there are a lot of great peeps here and some not so great. Let it roll off of your back. Best of luck. FYI, I love your enthusiasm and love of storms. There are other peeps here with some serious medical issues too,.Stay strong and I am biting on the GFS for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Actually that's the middle s/w .....the one discussed a couple of pages ago that looked good until yesterday when they dropped it in favor of the third missing . Interesting but need to see the euro on board. Nam was close. If this one happens that is what we saw in 95....every little threat morphed. and 94, as a reminder. I think you mean 96 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 and 94, as a reminder. I think you mean 96 though I'm the exact reverse or Will. He remembers every date and I remember none. I do remember bob copeland was still on channel 5 so it was definitely between 1975 and 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 When Kevin and I are on the same team on a storm it almost never fails. You naysayers ........ ye of little faith. Funny, the local (Springfield based) 11pm mets I saw (ABC-40) (WWLP-22) said "tricky little system", "bears watching". Tomorrow will be fun to watch the models conflict or come in to agreement on either a more robust or meager solution. I'm still intrigued due to the number of moving parts. There is some energy there just see how it evolves as it moves east. GFS has certainly been adamant about some snow falling, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 When Kevin and I are on the same team on a storm it almost never fails. You naysayers ........ ye of little faith. ummmm......? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 LI over 15,TTs mid 40's, saturated to 300 mbs, dumpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is not the title of the thread wrong? This system is an entity unto itself. There is no inverted trough today or tomorrow. Monday is the 10th and the energy initially thought to have norlan signature is halfway to England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is not the title of the thread wrong? This system is an entity unto itself. There is no inverted trough today or tomorrow. Monday is the 10th and the energy initially thought to have norlan signature is halfway to England. Cj started the thread and then never posted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 James I just saw your sig for the first time. Kudos brother, hope it works out well for you. Here's a bit of advice, don't take what people write personally , there are a lot of great peeps here and some not so great. Let it roll off of your back. Best of luck. FYI, I love your enthusiasm and love of storms. There are other peeps here with some serious medical issues too,.Stay strong and I am biting on the GFS for Monday nice post bro, I agree with everything you said. James is good people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Sun-Mon Feb 9-10 Inverted Storm Potentialtamp="1391836519"]Is not the title of the thread wrong? This system is an entity unto itself. There is no inverted trough today or tomorrow. Monday is the 10th and the energy initially thought to have norlan signature is halfway to England. Cj started the thread and then never posted again. my bad, i broke off the thread and messed up the dates, it was always sun/mon timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro looks good for flurries, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 my bad, i broke off the thread and messed up the dates, it was always sun/mon timeframe haha yes, I had gone back through the banter thread or whatever it was where I made a post and wondered where it went and then saw that all the sudden it was moved and used to start this thread. Not a problem at all but I never had anything to do with the title 00Z EC not biting. Its nice to see the GFS come in more robust starting at 18Z and then more so at 00Z. There have been at least 1 or 2 ens members hinting at a solution that looks like the OP for quite a while. Not sure if its a hiccup or the start of a trend and with the EC being a bit less reliable of late, Im not sure what to think. RGEM looks decent out as far as it goes, GGEM is, well, better than the Euro but thats not hard to do for this system. Gun to head, Id say it ends up looking more like the GFS than anything else but maybe for a narrower area than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Prob not a good sign that the nam which is known to occasionally develop flocks or seagulls into miller bs isn't biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 WTF GFS? Euro and it's ensembles could not be different. 48 hrs out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Snowy Storm Total Snow Forecast Probability 2 Inches of Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.