Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 James, I think yu may be the child of a union between damage in Tolland and blizzard 24.Child prodigy might be right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Child prodigy might be right again. King James reigns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's dead, James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's dead, Jamesuh, sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 uh, sarcasm?Mostly. I am still not really sold. Maybe the coast scores an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is the event that won't quite go away while at the same time it does not seem to want to come to fruition (no matter how large or small). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFs just came in much wetter across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Mostly. I am still not really sold. Maybe the coast scores an inchgefs are 12/12 in agreement, hard to get consensus better than that. Theme of the year with models coming on board late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I go with this rule of thumb, even the SREFs track record may not be that good in the end, but within the 72-24 hour period, they are good with trends. If the SREFs show a more improved system within the 72-24 hour window before the event they are likely on to something. I don't give up on an event until the SREFs are out to sea and done with the system themselves. While they trended out to sea with the southern stream wave, there was always a secondary wave of low pressure and now that the GFS operational and ensembles agree 100% on a moderate snowstorm for Sunday night into Monday, chances are the global models will follow suite, how soon depends on several factors, but I don't pay much attention within the 24-72 hour range to the EURO. I pay attention within 24 hours to what the EURO depicts. However right now it is a SREF and GFS system to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How do the EURO ensembles look by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFs aren't even worth looking at this far out. EC ens were paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The SREFs are indeed worth looking at this far out, as I have stated above, the SREF mean has been very good in the 24+ hour time frame, out to about 72 hours. They begin to lock onto a north trend or a wetter trend, the rest of the model suite begin to lock onto a north trend too, we need to continue to watch this event as we get closer to the short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The SREFs are indeed worth looking at this far out, as I have stated above, the SREF mean has been very good in the 24+ hour time frame, out to about 72 hours. They begin to lock onto a north trend or a wetter trend, the rest of the model suite begin to lock onto a north trend too, we need to continue to watch this event as we get closer to the short range models. They're crap past 48hr and often struggle inside of d1. Here's a frankfurter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFS plumes are 2-3" in SNE, pretty reasonable it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFS plumes are 2-3" in SNE, pretty reasonable it seems Pretty reasonable in my opinion, I think SE MA and Cape and Islands get in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFS plumes are 2-3" in SNE, pretty reasonable it seems I guess maybe it's a matter of semantics. I hear moderate snowstorm and think at least advisory level (and not a marginal rush hour kind of advisory). I could buy 2-3", but I don't consider that a moderate system and that might be why we are getting some of this arguing back and forth over what the models show. GFS being the most bullish at 2-4" verbatim doesn't really inspire a ton of confidence for me, but can't rule that type of solution out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Lol. GFS is robust tonight for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I guess maybe it's a matter of semantics. I hear moderate snowstorm and think at least advisory level (and not a marginal rush hour kind of advisory). I could buy 2-3", but I don't consider that a moderate system and that might be why we are getting some of this arguing back and forth over what the models show. GFS being the most bullish at 2-4" verbatim doesn't really inspire a ton of confidence for me, but can't rule that type of solution out either. refresher, although the landscape still looks as silky as the day it fell, beautiful scenes around here. Sunrise was spectacular with sundogs followed with an incredible sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS +6" for Boston looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 refresher, although the landscape still looks as silky as the day it fell, beautiful scenes around here. Sunrise was spectacular with windows followed with an incredible sunset. Had a little hoar frost up here last night, really added to the scene. What I find incredible is that we (as an agency) are still answering questions about this "big storm" for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wha the hell? GFS goes high end advisory for a chunk of SNE. Can it be that wrong 48-54 hours out? Well of course the answer is yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Its not really a shock to me because most of its ensembles at 18z were much more robust than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I would take the gfs solution lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Uncle isn't too bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Its not really a shock to me because most of its ensembles at 18z were much more robust than the OP. Yes, the GEFS have had it for several runs actually...though as you said, the 18z GEFS were esp liking it. I just checked the RGEM model (a very underrated solid short term model in my book) and it supports a GFS-esque solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm back in Boston bring the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes, the GEFS have had it for several runs actually...though as you said, the 18z GEFS were esp liking it. I just checked the RGEM model (a very underrated solid short term model in my book) and it supports a GFS-esque solution. Do we bite? Yea three solid model hit for 3-6 , King James bible type comeback. Man would be great if this works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes, the GEFS have had it for several runs actually...though as you said, the 18z GEFS were esp liking it. I just checked the RGEM model (a very underrated solid short term model in my book) and it supports a GFS-esque solution. You speak the truth. I'm actually working on a project up here to figure out what (of all available guidance) performs the best in the first 36 hours of the forecast. RGEM is consistently at the top of the list for Max/Min T and hourly temps. We find it to be really good with sky cover too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Had a little hoar frost up here last night, really added to the scene. What I find incredible is that we (as an agency) are still answering questions about this "big storm" for the weekend. Stupid is as stupid does, you can't fix stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Do we bite? Yea three solid model hit for 3-6 , King James bible type comeback. Man would be great if this works out. Not sure yet...I've always thought it worth keeping half an eye on for a couple inches...but didn't expect it to come back to solid advisory level this close in...but we've seen far stranger than this. Its really only GFS and RGEM to a slightly lesser extent. Ukie is better than before, but still more like a refresher 1-2" type deal. A bunch of ther SREFs like it too, though its hard to give them any weight even at 48-60 hours. Maybe by tomorrow I'll give them a bit of weight. The Euro was ugly though that it keeps me cautious...but despite the Euro still being the best model, its had its misses this year on a few events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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