Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah but I think more times than not when we see them in the 3-6 day range...they're a placeholder. Sometimes we end up with bonafide storms instead...this time it seems like what we may be trending to is energy spaced just too far apart. There's still a little glimmer with a later system IMO...so we'll see. It's down to either that first one clipping us, or a later system dropping in. The trough thing is going out the window it appears. This is what I wrote 2 days ago. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42630-a-look-ahead-at-the-feb-3-10-period-technical-discussion-updated-to-feb-15th/?p=2730049 Wonder if we see that southern s/w scoot offshore fast enough to allow the follow up one to dig and amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 One of two scenarios needs to take place in order for a more significant system: 1) A downstream block needs to force the wave to curl in on its self (basically ...break) 2) An upstream ridge amplitude forces the down stream mass field to collapse, and any conveniently timed S/W gets a steroid injection and goes nutty (Feb 2006) ...Neither of which appears to want to take place; thus the wave(s) maintain an open ...like way open translation. Personally I rather like the inverted trough/Norlun esque appearance there, as having 20 hours of wind max translating along the latitude of DAY to ISP is typically observed during llv convergence scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think this is a scenario in which the northern stream energy actually trends stronger and digging deeper into the southern US. I think some GOM moisture gets injected into the northern stream shortwave and with the baroclinic zone pushing northwest due to the southern stream shortwave moisture gets pushed northwestward. H7 moisture field is quite expansive for the Northeastern US and Oh Valley. I think a large swath of 3-6" is possible from CHI eastward towards PA and then into the SNE region. NAM is trending stronger and digging deeper with the northern stream shortwave. Need to watch this carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 NAM tossing in the towel on system one for the Euro idea of a system passing through at 75-80 hours. Plenty of time for that to evolve a bit into something better. Punt the first system and the trough idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 NAM tossing in the towel on system one for the Euro idea of a system passing through at 75-80 hours. Plenty of time for that to evolve a bit into something better. Punt the first system and the trough idea. Ive been watching the later system, the northern stream energy can create its own snowstorm for SNE, if that energy can dig an H5 low south of SNE, and south of Long Island, NY. NAM is mishandling something, just what I don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS looks about the same as 12z..1-2 inches..spot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS looks about the same as 12z..1-2 inches..spot 3 Wintry appeal but ground truth would be weak as modeled. But that's a potent little s/w spinning down and if we can get the lead stronger..and pump the ridge a bit out west there's a little room for a quick hitter. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Much better look on the 0z. Still may not amount to much but we're increasing separation between the two systems by quite a bit. Essentially it's ending up a little more like the Euro..punt system 1 and the trough. Hope for more separation in later runs. There's still a shot for Monday, however slim it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Nah, i wish the southern wave would slow a tad and let the northern stream slide in its backside fanny wagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like we can lock in 3-5" at least! Erika Martin @ErikaMartinWx 1h A look at snow total for the second half of the weekend. Looks like we finally caught a break! pic.twitter.com/fftcJYSyg8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like we can lock in 3-5" at least! Erika Martin @ErikaMartinWx 1h A look at snow total for the second half of the weekend. Looks like we finally caught a break! pic.twitter.com/fftcJYSyg8 Cute...forecast...er. Seems bit bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL at 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Noyes has a couple inches Sunday into Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The hope for much of anything from this is that second shortwave...but spacing looks like an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The hope for much of anything from this is that second shortwave...but spacing looks like an issue. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks pretty meager if anything at the moment. Wow, did this crap the bed over the last 4 days....but that's what happens sometimes with this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks pretty meager if anything at the moment. Wow, did this crap the bed over the last 4 days....but that's what happens sometimes with this flow. From a modeling standpoint yes it did, but from an expectations standpoint I hope for everyone here nothing crapped out. The 06z NAM was a comical run, highly unlikely, but shows what my general thought would have been had the lead s/w gotten ahead enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 From a modeling standpoint yes it did, but from an expectations standpoint I hope for everyone here nothing crapped out. The 06z NAM was a comical run, highly unlikely, but shows what my general thought would have been had the lead s/w gotten ahead enough./ Yeah I'm speaking from a modeling standpoint as it's not like an OTS storm..it's literally no storm. I still think we may have to watch for some lighter snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah I'm speaking from a modeling standpoint as it's not like an OTS storm..it's literally no storm. I still think we may have to watch for some lighter snows. Yeah it is pretty amazing how it went from a huge southern juiced system to almost nothing. The southern storm idea was only like 120 hours out...for us, it was a bit further and very possible we'd miss, but seeing what amounts to a weak sauce wave off South Carolina is pretty amazing considering the agreement on something way more significant 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Some of those SREF members deserve a Keyshawn Johnson "C'mon man!" I suppose we should watch that s/w for lighter snows Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Some of those SREF members deserve a Keyshawn Johnson "C'mon man!" I suppose we should watch that s/w for lighter snows Sunday night. We don't need a huge change in spacing for this to improve....worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah it is pretty amazing how it went from a huge southern juiced system to almost nothing. The southern storm idea was only like 120 hours out...for us, it was a bit further and very possible we'd miss, but seeing what amounts to a weak sauce wave off South Carolina is pretty amazing considering the agreement on something way more significant 4 days ago. Yup. The overriding pattern this year has been progressive so seeing amped up solutions that far in advance does not excite me. Same with the VD system. I'd rather see it over Cleveland right now. Some of those SREF members deserve a Keyshawn Johnson "C'mon man!" I suppose we should watch that s/w for lighter snows Sunday night. One looked like a full-blown noreaster. What we do know is that we have a s/w that will traverse the area on Sunday. If we can generate enough lift we should be able to eek out some snsh during the day. T-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Watch that last sw. This isn't dead yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 lol, The Nam, Just proves its useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Watch that last sw. This isn't dead yet http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0yXqU-w9U0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0yXqU-w9U0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is like waiting for your wife/gf to get ready. No matter how long you wait it's still days away. It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor (Yes I know....that's an animal house line for the kiddos that always correct me when I use it once a year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 little system is now on the GFS too...it's not over until we say it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Still think a 1-2 inch deal is on the table Sunday into Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Still think a 1-2 inch deal is on the table Sunday into Sunday night Could be more if this southern impulse can continue to ramp up....sunday or Monday. Even the JMA has it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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