CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WTF got into the GFS and every single ensemble member last night? So much for different initial conditions and parameterization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 12:35 AM, mfastx said: I'd be thrilled with two inches. Satisfied with one. We'll get neither. Coating if any. Call me dummy but nne will jackpot IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 C-1 or so looks fine. It may not be all that even, but I don't see anything wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I just don't want classes cancelled Monday...had them cancelled Wednesday....so boring without classes and work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:37 AM, CoastalWx said: C-1 or so looks fine. It may not be all that even, but I don't see anything wrong with that. Even though the SREF mean was crazy high if you actually looked at the plumes there was a pretty tight cluster right around 0.03" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:39 AM, CT Rain said: Even though the SREF mean was crazy high if you actually looked at the plumes there was a pretty tight cluster right around 0.03" or so. Lolllies to 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:43 AM, CoastalWx said: Lolllies to 4"? lollis to fail There's a reason why most of the good mets/hobbyists didn't latch on to the GFS fantasy solutions... it just didn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:48 AM, CT Rain said: lollis to fail There's a reason why most of the good mets/hobbyists didn't latch on to the GFS fantasy solutions... it just didn't make sense. Red flag when the gfs had more than the RPM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:50 AM, CoastalWx said: Red flag when the gfs had more than the RPM lol. Yup. When the non-hydrostatic models are meh and the Euro is meh... I'm going to say no thanks to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's weird how the gfs ensembles pretty much supported the op for a few runs. This may be turning into a spot coating to an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:52 AM, CT Rain said: Yup. When the non-hydrostatic models are meh and the Euro is meh... I'm going to say no thanks to the GFS. It seems like the GFS can at times compensate way too much for lift and tries to develop QPF out of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 someone may get croaked on the coast with this...nice trough/meso low really being signaled by many models and the 0z nam has drifted it back SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah that band needs to be watched. Been modeled all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:08 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah that band needs to be watched. Been modeled all day. 4km NAM brings it into Plymouth and Barnstable counties...couple of inches of snow IMO. but those things are so fickle. Looks like we'll see a couple of meso spins on the general trough...if we can get one to work down the western shoreline of the bay it could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 4k NAM is beautiful for here. 2" i'd guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:00 AM, sbos_wx said: 4k NAM is beautiful for here. 2" i'd guess? These things have a way of seemingly busting....those little spins never seem to want to move onshore but there's hope and it's something to watch. System looks very meh otherwise with lots of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:12 AM, PolarVortex said: These things have a way of seemingly busting....those little spins never seem to want to move onshore but there's hope and it's something to watch. System looks very meh otherwise with lots of dry air. Nice hint of coastal enhancement on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My call: South of the Merrimack River: c-1 Sea coast nh and lower downeast Maine: 1-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Could be an interesting day for ern pym county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 very light snow in andover On 2/9/2014 at 11:07 AM, CoastalWx said: Could be an interesting day for ern pym county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 1-3 still looks on track for everyone. Mostly 1-2..but with .10-.20as modeled that's 1-3..probably will be some sneaky higher amounts out on the north shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:42 AM, Damage In Tolland said: 1-3 still looks on track for everyone. Mostly 1-2..but with .10-.20as modeled that's 1-3..probably will be some sneaky higher amounts out on the north shore Figures, I washed the cars and they will get mucked up again; really the only part of winter that I hate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:46 AM, Modfan said: Figures, I washed the cars and they will get mucked up again; really the only part of winter that I hate! Euro increased amounts up to .10..Last to the party again..Won't be a big deal..but enough to plow and salt tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:47 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Euro increased amounts up to .10..Last to the party again..Won't be a big deal..but enough to plow and salt tonight Euro wins this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:48 AM, CoastalWx said: Euro wins this. GFS was too wet..but Euro was too dry..It had a few flurries and now it's got 1-2. Neither model was good..though at least the GFS had snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:49 AM, Damage In Tolland said: GFS was too wet..but Euro was too dry..It had a few flurries and now it's got 1-2. Neither model was good..though at least the GFS had snow Euro had flurries to a coating or so. GFS had 4-6". That was a GFS fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:50 AM, CoastalWx said: Euro had flurries to a coating or so. GFS had 4-6". That was a GFS fail. I remember you or maybe Will saying Euro had maybe a few flurries.. GFS was worse..but at least it showed accumulating snow. Euro just really struggles on N branch features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:52 AM, Damage In Tolland said: I remember you or maybe Will saying Euro had maybe a few flurries.. GFS was worse..but at least it showed accumulating snow. Euro just really struggles on N branch features Eh, we'll disagree then. OES CJ right now on the s shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:53 AM, CoastalWx said: Eh, we'll disagree then. OES CJ right now on the s shore. Yeah you guys might be able to actually get 3-5 if it breaks right..Clear skies here lol..hopefully clouds are in by mid morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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