cja1987 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 00Z GEFS members are a tad more coherent on the idea that Sun is not a big deal, that said I think agreement is better on a storm being around @hr180 (2/13) than it is on Sunday's event! Still a complex situation from which the wave(s) for Sunday are arising. Ejecting out of an anomalous ESE-WNW oriented trough axis in the Pac NW. I expect predictability to remain fairly low relative to "normal" for at least the next 24hr and the weenie in me wants to think models are under doing the potential deepening of waves as they cross the northern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 BOX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES IN THIS TIME FRAME. A COUPLEPIECES OF ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES INNORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEDEVELOPING OFF THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST.THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS DO NOT AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGYENOUGH...SO THE SURFACE LOW ESCAPES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.THEREFORE...ODDS FAVOR OUR REGION BEING SPARED A SIGNIFICANT WINTERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UPWITH THE GFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS SCENARIO. THIS MEANSTHAT EVEN IF THE LOW PASSES WELL TOO OUR EAST...A PERIOD OF SNOW MAYSTILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE MIGHT BE PULLED WESTWARD. IT COULD END UPBEING JUST A ROUND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS IF THE FLATTER ECMWFVERIFIES...BUT A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EXISTSIF SOME OF THE GFS/GGEM ENSEMBLES VERIFY WITH A STRONGER INVERTEDTROUGH SIGNAL.ALL IN ALL...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THIS TIME FRAME.WHILE ODDS ARE AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AT THIS POINT...ATRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND A MORE SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Lets see if we can get a clearer signal on whether or not this will be anything more substantial. Right now I think we see some light snows over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Do inverted troughs generally favor some parts of the area over others? Coastal plain? Interior? Location not important? I always think these are precarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Do inverted troughs generally favor some parts of the area over others? Coastal plain? Interior? Location not important? I always think these are precarious It depends on how the trough axis sets up. In this case, it might favor cstl areas...but it's too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Do inverted troughs generally favor some parts of the area over others? Coastal plain? Interior? Location not important? I always think these are precarious Anecdotally I would say they favor coastal areas more but can get interior areas as well. Here is the 06z GFS showing the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Taking a look at the GFS ensembles- Encouraging to see a few coastal storm members and a consensus of measurable precip over SNE whether its inverted trof and coastal. Whether it is a light mod or heavy storm it seems we can pad the snowpack as total miss could be the outlier at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Do inverted troughs generally favor some parts of the area over others? Coastal plain? Interior? Location not important? I always think these are precarious Precarious is a good word for it. I hate them. I like widespread wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just plan on a snowy Sunday with a couple inches falling. Not a huge storm, but it certainly will add to the impressive regional snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Will see what happens. Seems incredibly fickle, but I suppose some accumulation is possible. Hopefully as we move closer we can get this a little more beefed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Do inverted troughs generally favor some parts of the area over others? Coastal plain? Interior? Location not important? I always think these are precarious The climo for them is further E and NE...but they often have a hit or miss element to them. The Jan 18th MLK weekend inverted trough was a classic example of the uneven nature of them. About 6 inches of paste fell in ORH with areas 20-30 miles south getting almost nothing...just a few flakes. NW CT got hammered while just SE of them was almost nothing. There's usually distinct winners and losers in inverted trough setups. We'll see how this one trends, but right now it looks pretty weak...though there is certainly still some potential for something more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Everyone's favorite sref's look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The climo for them is further E and NE...but they often have a hit or miss element to them. The Jan 18th MLK weekend inverted trough was a classic example of the uneven nature of them. About 6 inches of paste fell in ORH with areas 20-30 miles south getting almost nothing...just a few flakes. NW CT got hammered while just SE of them was almost nothing. There's usually distinct winners and losers in inverted trough setups. We'll see how this one trends, but right now it looks pretty weak...though there is certainly still some potential for something more significant. I'm now hoping the ocean low trends closer. Many of them have. The issue with that is the NW flank of it is pretty dry, so it's going to take a sizeable shift to matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS says, oh, I showed a massive storm a few days ago? Sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS says, oh, I showed a massive storm a few days ago? Sorry... But any snow is better than no snow, right? GFS does spit out ~1-2" with more up in Downeast ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS doesn't look bad at all. 1-3 for the region. Snowy Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GGEM has pretty typical inverted trough setup...which favors S ME/SE NH and E MA. UKMET is less impressive. Maybe just some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well hopefully a little refresher anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This ones trending in the wrong direction pending the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This ones trending in the wrong direction pending the euro. Doubtful it comes back...at least as a significant storm. A light refresher is certainly possible though. That's probably where expectations need to be aimed at this point. Hopefully someone can get a nice surprise out of an inverted trough band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You know how these go. I don't care what QPF shows...if the inv trough has any residence time over an area...it's a several inch deal in a narrow area. While it's somewhere in SNE or over a pod of humpback whales...we don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Some decent events on the 12zGefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro with nary a flake. Gone baby gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro tries to have a weak low move through after abandoning the inv trough. It's different regarding how it handles the energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just plan on 1-3. If you get lucky under the norlun then you feel blessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro tries to have a weak low move through after abandoning the inv trough. It's different regarding how it handles the energy out west. Said this yesterday too....inverted troughs seem to be the placeholder when models can't resolve the energy any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think the significant storm idea comes back northwest over the next several runs, but probably not beginning until 12z Friday when the energy is better sampled. Right now it looks like a messy situation at H5, too messy for any type of storm to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Said this yesterday too....inverted troughs seem to be the placeholder when models can't resolve the energy any other way. Well sometimes they are real. We already had a pretty potent one on 1/18. I suspect this one will change a bit in the coming 24 hours, but I think we can pretty much rule out a significant widespread storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well sometimes they are real. We already had a pretty potent one on 1/18. I suspect this one will change a bit in the coming 24 hours, but I think we can pretty much rule out a significant widespread storm at this point. I should hope no one had any hopes on a large-scale system. This year has not been kind to long-range modeled large-scale systems. No reason to write it off either. QPF be damned right now. RH fields look ok and there is a s/w traversing the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well sometimes they are real. We already had a pretty potent one on 1/18. I suspect this one will change a bit in the coming 24 hours, but I think we can pretty much rule out a significant widespread storm at this point. Yeah but I think more times than not when we see them in the 3-6 day range...they're a placeholder. Sometimes we end up with bonafide storms instead...this time it seems like what we may be trending to is energy spaced just too far apart. There's still a little glimmer with a later system IMO...so we'll see. It's down to either that first one clipping us, or a later system dropping in. The trough thing is going out the window it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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