IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Did not say it did but there is no debating that over the last two runs it has been trending more east.... The only thing stopping this from slipping eastward is the high to the northeast. The Euro has been far more consistent recently than the GFS. I like where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Overall the Euro is hinting at a better outcome for us on this than it ever did on this weekends bust, remember only the GFS ever showed the big amped storm even back into the OH valley at times. The euro has been hot now for about the last 3-4 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Sounds like NYC-west type storm with p type issues along the coast. However being six days out and having gone through this weekends pitfall this will be changing plenty of times till nowcasting. Nice signal but not excitement till tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Meh I guess it's something even though next run will likely be completely different. The Euro is probably more accurate than the gfs with storms like this, and it did well the past few storms since they were of southern stream origin but I'm very skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Sounds like NYC-west type storm with p type issues along the coast. However being six days out and having gone through this weekends pitfall this will be changing plenty of times till nowcasting. Nice signal but not excitement till tuesday I thought you were taking a break till Monday?? Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah this will be different next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yet another low in the gulf region day 10. Well, if nothing else the threats will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 More threat mirages? You don't say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You would like today's ensembles a little east of last nite And that gets u closer to 5 days out where it becomes a viable threat and not just another day 7 to day 10 fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yet another low in the gulf region day 10. Well, if nothing else the threats will continue. Pattern looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I dont know how anyone can say they really like the look of this. Low pressure building into Great Lakes and high pressure sliding offshore....good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I dont know how anyone can say they really like the look of this. Low pressure building into Great Lakes and high pressure sliding offshore....good luck with that. Agreed, hell at 150 hours the freezing line at the surface is at the Canadian border. If it somehow snows this is thread the needle to the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This isn't trending towards being an OTS solution. It either phases or it doesn't. If it phases a little you get today's Euro. If it doesn't phase at all you get the GFS. If it phases big, well we haven't seen that yet. This seems wishful thinking...there are many degrees between just OTS and a snowstorm. Did not say it did but there is no debating that over the last two runs it has been trending more east.... It is more then just 2 runs...a few runs ago this was a cutter then a big snow for central PA, then eastern pa...now NJ... its been trending east for about 5 runs now and if that continues.... I am NOT trying to rain on anyones parade, I want snow also, I only came in here because some here can see the EC before I can, but my worry is that it is trending towards the majority of guidance that is currently OTS. I have no crystal ball though, hopefully the euro is right and the GFS is off on its own planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 #8 analog today over the east at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z JMA tracks the low from the southeast to Cape Cod. 1"+ QPF. Here is hour 144 (As far out as the free maps go) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 JMA @ 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Can't tell if what falls on the JMA is all snow, it is different than all the models because it is a Miller B, Northern dominant system on the JMA....Not like it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This run was a paste bomb for NYC. The outcome was way better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Can't tell if what falls on the JMA is all snow, it is different than all the models because it is a Miller B, Northern dominant system on the JMA....Not like it matters. Yeh they are 24 hours increments , so not sure if its inside OBX to CC or off the coast on the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z JMA goes all in for a big phase. The surface doesn't go above freezing until the precip has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z JMA goes all in for a big phase. The surface doesn't go above freezing until the precip has ended. Euro ensembles out yet ? you`re SV maps are faster . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just because I like throwing these things out... The #5 analog last night over the East at 192 hours was February 18th, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks just like the OP. Big hit. Very juiced. BL issues but that will be sorted out over time. Mean low is off the NJ coast and then over Cape Cod. The mean is a miller A too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I spy Euro snow maps on FB again... Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is still la la land, we're talking what, 6 days out at least, probably close to a week out. If I see this under 5 days, or preferably 4 then we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ensemble mean also has a low over eastern GA at hour 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's about a 20-24 hour snowfall paste bomb from I-95 NW on the Euro ensemble mean. Now that's something to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 EURO snow maps should 5"+, not that it matters. Big snowstorm in the MA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's about a 20-24 hour snowfall paste bomb from I-95 NW on the Euro ensemble mean. Now that's something to get excited about. if it was 3 days out, not 1 week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's about a 20-24 hour snowfall paste bomb from I-95 NW on the Euro ensemble mean. Now that's something to get excited about. Do they still show the same time frame as the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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