IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is done, even if it comes up the coast enough, no cold air and a low in the upper mid west/lakes....not a snow set-up at all. This is fine, this has wet paste just inland bomb written all over it. The city eastward might be all rain or a mixed bag but that doesn't define this as a non-event. We're also six days away, how many times have we seen dramatic shifts inside of 72 hours so far this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is done, even if it comes up the coast enough, no cold air and a low in the upper mid west/lakes....not a snow set-up at all.r u basing this just off of the 6z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is done, even if it comes up the coast enough, no cold air and a low in the upper mid west/lakes....not a snow set-up at all. Too far out to even think of saying things like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I only get the 00z JMA out to hour 144 but it looks like it was going to hold serve Thats the 12z JMA Yanks (note how its valid for 12z Wednesday)...00z JMA only goes out to 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Thats the 12z JMA Yanks, 00z JMA only goes out to 72 hours Yeah, my bad. I wonder why they run 00z only to 72 hours and 12z to 192, makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Too far out to even think of saying things like this. Yup, look were pulling hens teeth still over model runs for the sunday/monday threat now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z NAM has a nice little PNA spike at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z NAM has a nice little PNA spike at the end of its run. We will see what it looks like 84 hours from now yank. Also NAO should be heading towards nuetral next week and PNA towards nuetral zone as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z GFS definitely isn't what I would call a classic setup for a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks disorganized down south, but that has been the trend since 12z yesterday with the GFS and all runs have still produced a significant coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The southern vort doesn't enter the US until Monday morning. We probably will need to wait until the 12z Monday morning runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Surprised last nights ggem got no love....maybe because the threat is pushed back to day 7 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not only is the GFS blowing up the lead vort offshore but it also continues to strengthen the northern stream to the point now where it's becoming the dominant feature. What a freakin disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 FAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS has been abnormally horrific the past few weeks in the 6-10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not only is the GFS blowing up the lead vort offshore but it also continues to strengthen the northern stream to the point now where it's becoming the dominant feature. What a freakin disaster.there is no mechanism to help dig the northern stream ie no ridge out west just a flat flow....we may make it thru this week with lots of potential but nothing to show for it in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Absolutely nada. Not even a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We might get a miller B out of the clipper on Friday, but the southern stream vort is wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There could be a PNA spike with the AO going downward by and after mid month as well as shortening wavelengths so maybe then will be our last chance at something. As of now everything is kaput. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We might get a miller B out of the clipper on Friday, but the southern stream vort is wasted.at least I'm sure we'll somehow manage a day 10 threat on guidance today :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 00z Euro speeds up the northern stream and catches the southern stream vort before it has a chance to escape eastward. The GFS keeps the two separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Southern stream energy escapes. The flow is just too progressive. Not only that but the PNA ridge is flat and doesn't allow the northern stream energy to dig and get involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If it comes , it may be a rainer . The Euro OP , the Control and now the GFS separate this from the Northern Branch and would be a nice ski resort snowstorm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS really amplifies the trough on Friday but the flow is progressive and it doesn't have nearly enough room to blow up into something big. The new energy sliding into the PAC NW helps to kick the western ridge eastward. I supposed that might stand a better chance at being something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is done, even if it comes up the coast enough, no cold air and a low in the upper mid west/lakes....not a snow set-up at all. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There could be a PNA spike with the AO going downward by and after mid month as well as shortening wavelengths so maybe then will be our last chance at something. As of now everything is kaput. With flat height fields, I don't think we have much of a chance at anything. We need amplification to have a chance, and better yet some kind of help from the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 With flat height fields, I don't think we have much of a chance at anything. We need amplification to have a chance, and better yet some kind of help from the NAO. A nice PNA spike would be great as well to help the southern stream not escape the northern stream too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 With flat height fields, I don't think we have much of a chance at anything. We need amplification to have a chance, and better yet some kind of help from the NAO. It's my last bit of hope for anything but there's statistical data that Don S. showed where 80% of snowstorms after mid month occurred with a -AO/-PNA combo as wavelengths shorten, which is what we may get into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z GEFS haven't completely abandoned the idea of a coastal tracking close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well that's refreshing to see after the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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