MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z Nam has a nice CCB right over NYC. At 84 hours, NYC is getting a moderate snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Opens up at h5 hour 81. Low still coming north. Looks warm at the surface. maybe let earthlight analyze... this is not accurate information and probably confuses many on here.. sorry just saw he already responded - didnt mean to pile on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What? The 32 F line is running from TTN to Central Park and the nearest 40 F temperature is on Marthas Vineyard. I'm seeing the surface freezing line running right a long 95. Looks warm SE of 95. At least from my interpretations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That northern stream kicker is really ruining what would have otherwise been an epic bomb. Looks like the low stops intensifying around hr 78. H5 is closed off south of Long Island at 84 hours, the CCB developed northward as I expected it would based on the 72-78 hour panel. I don't think anything was "ruined". This run shows a signature cold conveyor belt developing from DC and moving north to NYC and eventually Southern New England with intense dynamics and the potential for very heavy snow. The NAM is indicating 3-6 hour QPF totals in excess of 0.75" within the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm seeing the surface freezing line running right a long 95. Looks warm SE of 95. At least from my interpretations. It doesn't really matter...the column is likely saturated at that point and most people are ripping heavy snow and pasting. Look at the precipitation rates within the CCB and draw your own conclusions as to what's going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 H5 is closed off south of Long Island at 84 hours, the CCB developed northward as I expected it would based on the 72-78 hour panel. I don't think anything was "ruined". This run shows a signature cold conveyor belt developing from DC and moving north to NYC and eventually Southern New England with intense dynamics and the potential for very heavy snow. The NAM is indicating 3-6 hour QPF totals in excess of 0.75" within the banding. The freezing line hugs right near the coast throughout. Really good run for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 H5 is closed off south of Long Island at 84 hours, the CCB developed northward as I expected it would based on the 72-78 hour panel. I don't think anything was "ruined". This run shows a signature cold conveyor belt developing from DC and moving north to NYC and eventually Southern New England with intense dynamics and the potential for very heavy snow. The NAM is indicating 3-6 hour QPF totals in excess of 0.75" within the banding. Yes, I missed that it closed back off at hour 84 after opening up the previous panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That northern stream kicker is really ruining what would have otherwise been an epic bomb. Looks like the low stops intensifying around hr 78. If the kicker is too strong, it could cause the H500 low to open up and knock down the CCB. It's looking like a sharp cutoff on the NW edge, wherever that ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is really loving the 0z Euro ensemble mean this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Typical coastal, whomever manages to get underneath that deform band is going to get crushed and outside of that totals will be a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The freezing line hugs right near the coast throughout. Really good run for our area. Mother Of God worthy almost. I think some of the barrier islands would sink into the ocean under the weight of all the wet snow on the ground after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the kicker is too strong, it could cause the H500 low to open up and knock down the CCB. It's looking like a sharp cutoff on the NW edge, wherever that ends up. It's going to be a really interesting northwestern edge that's for sure. The mid level winds are really pressing on the development of the cold conveyor belt/associated precipitation. But if the models are correct, this could be some of the heaviest snow we have seen in this area in a while. The modeled lift and dynamics are extremely impressive within the banding and although the snow growth and accumulation rates may not be "perfect" based on the thermal profiles, there is going to be some epic paste-snow in these bands should they develop. The mid level setup on the models right now argues for a deformation band from DC to PHL and then moving northeastward to NJ/NYC/LI. But that can change. For now..it looks really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z Nam at 84 hours. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Regardless of the fine details, the fact that the NAM is showing a band like this is enough to make my heart flutter, we all know th eexactly CCB snow area will change. The 500mb track is good, thats all that matters to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850mb temps are in the -4 to 0C range for most of the storm. You can see them warming as the 850mb low approaches from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z Nam at 84 hours. Beautiful. I'd be thrilled with not one more flake of snow this winter after going through something like that. That would just be unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mother Of God worthy almost. I think some of the barrier islands would sink into the ocean under the weight of all the wet snow on the ground after that. Heavy and wet snow paste special this run. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta84hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow, my god the rates under those VVs would be INSANE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42800-february-13-14-potential-snowstorm-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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