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February 13-14 potential snow storm


Mikehobbyst

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The heights better start rising a long the coast quickly otherwise this is going to stay positive tilt and escape east.

 

I'm not too concerned either way. The signal is really strong for a big storm. The models are still going to fluctuate with how they handle the pieces surrounding the system and that will have impacts on their solutions. The NAM at this range is more eye candy than anything else...all ensemble guidance remains very favorable. Not worth getting caught up over individual OP runs.

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The more you look at the mid level evolution, the more you realize how small the window for this system really is. At some point she's going to be kicked off to the east a bit and the wave spacing is really relatively small for amplification.

 

The models, as it stands now, are showing a really well timed west coast ridge amplification and perfect timing of the phase with a brief ridge poking into Maine as well that serves to slow down the pattern.

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The heights better start rising a long the coast quickly otherwise this is going to stay positive tilt and escape east.

 

 

At hr. 63 she is rounding the bend. Surface LP off NC coast

 

 

This is coming up the coast. The trough is sharpening nicely. H5 looks great.

Appreciate the pbp, but you might want to not speculate on what's going to happen in your posts, as in the first post, and just report what you see, since speculating is fraught with uncertainty and can be wrong. 

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