earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ridging* out ahead of the shortwave at 48 isn't as high, so it will probably head a bit farther East this run Yeah, agreed. Nwly mid level winds behind the upper level low that is exiting the Northeast US still at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The northern stream (kicker SW) looks stronger through hr 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That is a really energetic jet streak and short wave coming out of the northern stream at 54 hours. This is going to be a big storm. Just a matter of how fast we can get it to develop near our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a mess, at hour 54 I count 4 separate surface lows. One east of Jacksonville, one near Orlando and two in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a mess, at hour 54 I count 4 separate surface lows. One east of Jacksonville, one near Orlando and two in the gulf.typical convective feedback from our beloved nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Okay hour 57 the energy is really diving in the backside and amplifying the trough. Back to one surface low south of the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 typical convective feedback from our beloved nam This is not convective feedback. This is the model picking up on multiple areas of lower pressure due to its higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is not convective feedback. This is the model picking up on multiple areas of lower pressure due to its higher resolution.ahhh thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That is a really energetic jet streak and short wave coming out of the northern stream at 54 hours. This is going to be a big storm. Just a matter of how fast we can get it to develop near our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The heights better start rising a long the coast quickly otherwise this is going to stay positive tilt and escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The heights better start rising a long the coast quickly otherwise this is going to stay positive tilt and escape east. I'm not too concerned either way. The signal is really strong for a big storm. The models are still going to fluctuate with how they handle the pieces surrounding the system and that will have impacts on their solutions. The NAM at this range is more eye candy than anything else...all ensemble guidance remains very favorable. Not worth getting caught up over individual OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At hr. 63 she is rounding the bend. Surface LP off NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is coming up the coast. The trough is sharpening nicely. H5 looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Intense low pressure centered over the Carolina coast hour 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When Lord Earthlight is present for a model run, he has earned the stage all to himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Closing off at h5 hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The more you look at the mid level evolution, the more you realize how small the window for this system really is. At some point she's going to be kicked off to the east a bit and the wave spacing is really relatively small for amplification. The models, as it stands now, are showing a really well timed west coast ridge amplification and perfect timing of the phase with a brief ridge poking into Maine as well that serves to slow down the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Intense low pressure centered over the Carolina coast hour 69. Looks like colder run thus far as well over the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a bomb crawling up the coast. No shortage of QPF this run. DC getting pummeled hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is coming up the coast. The trough is sharpening nicely. H5 looks great. I don't think it will be as amplified as the 06z run. Over the Western Atlantic, the 558dm heights are farther southeast and mid level winds have much more of an easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Light snow up to I-78 hour 75. Still closed off at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like colder run thus far as well over the NE Starting to see the consolidated and deeper low of the Euro as we get closer to storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is picking up on the kicker pressing in on the pattern over the Great Lakes and nudging into the Northeast at 72 hours. Mid level winds are pressing on the system and so the area of enhanced lift and dynamics is really pinched on the Northwest side of the precipitation shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The heights better start rising a long the coast quickly otherwise this is going to stay positive tilt and escape east. At hr. 63 she is rounding the bend. Surface LP off NC coast This is coming up the coast. The trough is sharpening nicely. H5 looks great. Appreciate the pbp, but you might want to not speculate on what's going to happen in your posts, as in the first post, and just report what you see, since speculating is fraught with uncertainty and can be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Having visions of good old Dave Roberts' Philly Accuweather on CH 6... when he would describe the Low out of the Gulf riding up the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The cyclone evolution suggests that the NAM is going to bring the cold conveyor belt over Long Island and the NJ Shore at the tail end of the run. Would bet heavily on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Opens up at h5 hour 81. Low still coming north. Looks warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At 81 hours the current track would most likely keep our entire area all snow. The 850 line is well south of the area and this thing is cranking folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Opens up at h5 hour 81. Low still coming north. Looks warm at the surface. What? The 32 F line is running from TTN to Central Park and the nearest 40 F temperature is on Marthas Vineyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That northern stream kicker is really ruining what would have otherwise been an epic bomb. Looks like the low stops intensifying around hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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