Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The previous run of the SREF's were too far out of range to discuss QPF comparisons to the new run.thanks yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z JMA - My source only runs to hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z JMA - My source only runs to hour 72. Wow LP tracks right over FL. Wonder what that track would be up the coast, i would guess not quite a coastal hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the kicker, will likely nudge this further east too. Just showing why the ensemble mean is a little warm at 850mb 0C. It's not really based slp track the mean shows. If not for the kicker, I'd be worried about a rain track for the coast, as the low looks to head north for a time before being shunted east. Hopefully the kicker isn't too strong, as that could deamplify the flow a little too much and weaken it at the upper levels. It would be awesome if we could keep a 500mb closed low as it comes through. Remember, 1/26/11 changed to rain/mix/dryslot from the city east and almost everyone still ended up well over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Through hr 87 on the new SREF's the 0.50"+ only gets to I-95. ] i just looped the h7 RH panels and they arent impressive which is a red flag for me....but its still a ways out there and the SREF's arent in their range yet (is there an actual SREF any longer?).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 03z Srefs had .1 along 95 with a 1008 going outside the bm. 09z has .5 west of Phl-hpn and 1004 which looks to be going over the bm. Improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 03z Srefs had .1 along 95 with a 1008 going outside the bm. 09z has .5 west of Phl-hpn and 1004 which looks to be going over the bm. Improvement. sounds like an ideal track to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 03z Srefs had .1 along 95 with a 1008 going outside the bm. 09z has .5 west of Phl-hpn and 1004 which looks to be going over the bm. Improvement. Also the SREF mean is leaning heavily west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The impressive agreement for a significant system continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 sounds like an ideal track to me Yes. They look great. Just the poster who belittled them needs a 966 tuck in the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 03z Srefs had .1 along 95 with a 1008 going outside the bm. 09z has .5 west of Phl-hpn and 1004 which looks to be going over the bm. Improvement. The members associated with the GFS will come west with time. The Euro ensembles are really what I'm paying attention to and their strong signal for a powerful storm for multiple runs now speaks much, much louder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The impressive agreement for a significant system continues.. John that track would be ideal for all in the NYC area. Very nice signifigant/major storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would still urge plenty of caution in regards to expectations. This is a really fragile interaction and setup so the models are going to struggle to iron out the details of the eventual evolution both aloft and at the surface. We will need to see how the energy behaves after the phase, too, to see how the surface low develops along the coast. Lots of uncertainty still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You just don't need this to kiss AC . Or we get cooked for a while . The dynamics would take over as the center is east of you. You do want it 50 miles off the coast to be safe . Even before a changeover if it happens for us, we get pounded, and then could get pounded again if the 500mb low stays closed. The heaviest amounts on 1/26/11 were where there was some dryslotting/mixing earlier in the day after the front end. The kicker is the real saving grace and could shift the low more NE in time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this a Wednesday night into Thursday night storm or a Thursday into Friday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this a Wednesday night into Thursday night storm or a Thursday into Friday storm?wed pm-thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this a Wednesday night into Thursday night storm or a Thursday into Friday storm? Wednesday-Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wed pm-thurs Thanks Ralph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is much farther N with the confluence/upper level low over the Northeast through 42 hours. Otherwise negligible changes in regards to the major players for our potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes. They look great. Just the poster who belittled them needs a 966 tuck in the coast I report what the model shows, not what I want it to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The western ridge appears to be getting stronger. Previously the ULL PAC energy was helping to knock it down and now most of it is being forced over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At 39 hours, to me, it looks like the shortwave is going to form a bit farther East...Could be real good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I report what the model shows, not what I want it to show. You do a great job of PBP but you probably do not realize you are biased towards your area. I think that's what you need to do just mention objectively about all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The northern stream energy diving down the backside through Montana looks more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You do a great job of PBP but you probably do not realize you are biased towards your area. I think that's what you need to do just mention objectively about all areas. I report what the model shows, not what I want it to show. Well most posters on here are biased towards Long Island so I balance the scales some. I do however try and mention all areas in the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Precipitation intensifying over Louisiana hour 42, energy diving down the backside of the trough. Everything looking on par so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Phase beginning at hour 45. Heavy rain along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Very heavy rain over southern AL/MS/LA. Low over the northern gulf. Energy still diving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ridging* out ahead of the shortwave at 48 isn't as high, so it will probably head a bit farther East this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The mid level ridging ahead of the developing phase and associated trough is not as impressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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