REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I've been preparing for weeks since some 15 year olds Facebook account told me to build a storm shelter based off the 370 hour ECM Control runs ensemble control runs means control run.Hows the storm shelter going? Does it atleast have wi-fi so we can still get your input while the storm of the century is going on above ground? Btw glad to see some more humor being injected into these threads during storms as well to have some fun as well. Yes its a weather forum made for constructive analysis and model interpretation but the laughs make it that much better john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I've been preparing for weeks since some 15 year olds Facebook account told me to build a storm shelter based off the 370 hour ECM Control runs ensemble control runs means control run.Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I've been preparing for weeks since some 15 year olds Facebook account told me to build a storm shelter based off the 370 hour ECM Control runs ensemble control runs means control run. strongly agree about the 6-12 comment. Disagree about milk and bread....should buy beer and ice cream :-) It's amazing how much people buy into that garbage, hopefully we can get a bunch of Q&A's in later today/prior to now casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Agreed. I think what isn't safe are the exact details of how the system shakes down. But the signal for the storm occurring is very strong right now, models are flying red flags like it's their job.yep. Someone is going to get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The overnight SREF were obviously at the very end of their range so not putting too much stock into it. But the agreement is becoming fairly remarkable for a big storm amongst all guidance and most notably including ensemble means. The SREF are leaning heavily NW and hinting at a similar potential as the Euro Ensembles with a track just S of LI. That would really be ideal for a lot of people here to be able to maximize dynamics. We will see what the new SREF are hinting at in a few minutes. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 -PNA,+NAO,+/-AO, Degrading -EPO. Talk about threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 -PNA,+NAO,+/-AO, Degrading -EPO. Talk about threading the needle. It isn't impossible, we saw an unfavorable pattern with the Feb Blizzard last year. If anything the models are showing a PNA spike so that could help matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The overnight SREF were obviously at the very end of their range so not putting too much stock into it. But the agreement is becoming fairly remarkable for a big storm amongst all guidance and most notably including ensemble means. The SREF are leaning heavily NW and hinting at a similar potential as the Euro Ensembles with a track just S of LI. That would really be ideal for a lot of people here to be able to maximize dynamics. We will see what the new SREF are hinting at in a few minutes. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Wouldn't we have to worry about a dryslot with a track like that though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Disagree about milk and bread....should buy beer and ice cream :-) Haha! I like this guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wouldn't we have to worry about a dryslot with a track like that though? Very unlikely. The new 09z run looks great too: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wouldn't we have to worry about a dryslot with a track like that though? I think its a little premature to be worrying about dry slots when we have no idea what track it will take yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I vote that only Earthlight gets to post during STORM MODE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think its a little premature to be worrying about dry slots when we have no idea what track it will take yet.. True, just mentioned it if we had that type of track.. wasn't saying that was the definitive track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Srefs look great. .5 back to eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Srefs look great. .5 back to eastern pa You have the entire 9z sref run? Im only out to 27 on SV thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not too concerned about where the 850 0c area gets on the ensembles. If the surface low tracks where they say it will there will be tremendous evap/dynam cooling with enhanced lift. Higher SDs indicate a large amount of Euro ENS members are over Delmarva with the slp. Probably explain why 850mb temps are a little warm on the mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You have the entire 9z sref run? Im only out to 27 on SV thus far I'm using a diff site. They look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Higher SDs indicate a large amount of Euro ENS members are over Delmarva with the slp. Probably explain why 850mb temps are a little warm: I'm actually not too concerned about a track that'll be too far west for us, so long as the models are reasonably accurate with their evolution of the kicker over the Great Lakes. The signal for this being wrapped up and very strong is really exciting for the dynamic potential. That will really help us even if the airmass is somewhat marginal along the coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hell if tracks 50-75 miles off the coast to the BM even the coast would probably stay all snow with the dynamics in play and get slammed hard as well paul. Ryan , the dynamics are there the Euro OP QPF is 1.5 plus area wide . At 72 hours you are getting close , so yes the Euro is furthest west but it`s strength is in the southern branch . 50 - 75 mile details still have some time to shake out , but you are getting close to seeing where that center is gona be in relation to AC . I said yesterday and I know its not 100 full proof , but without a cold high anchored here and a track inside Hatteras you ride the coast and that would cook u and me during it`s height IMO . Every model is east of the Euro , but for me they have trended towards the Euro , so I am way more curious to see whats up at 1 , then what the NAM or GFS says ( although all guidance is important ) . I like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mean track on the SREF's are from OBX to the benchmark or slightly east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Through hr 87 on the new SREF's the 0.50"+ only gets to I-95. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ryan , the dynamics are there the Euro OP QPF is 1.5 plus area wide . At 72 hours you are getting close , so yes the Euro is furthest west but it`s strength is in the southern branch . 50 - 75 mile details still have some time to shake out , but you are getting close to seeing where that center is gona be in relation to AC . I said yesterday and I know its not 100 full proof , but without a cold high anchored here and a track inside Hatteras you ride the coast and that would cook u and me during it`s height IMO . Every model is east of the Euro , but for me they have trended towards the Euro , so I am way more curious to see whats up at 1 , then what the NAM or GFS says ( although all guidance is important ) . I like the Euro Well according to the new 9z SREF the LP was off the coast of NC and took almost a perfect BM track at 87 hrs. That was very reassuring. The strength of the GL low will be one of the important determining factors as well with the track of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threegirls Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Could someone briefly explain what "bm" and benchmark mean? Where is the benchmark or "bm?" Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As far as major coastal storms are concerned, I have not seen such an impressive Euro Ensemble run at this range in a long while. 84-96 hour has a 1000mb low over OBX deepen to 988 inside the benchmark. On an ensemble mean of 51 members, extremely impressive. I think the last time may have been last February over LI and NE with the phase bomb miracle thread the needle storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well someone posted that the SREF's had the 0.50"+ contour back to central PA. They must be looking at an old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Could someone briefly explain what "bm" and benchmark mean? Where is the benchmark or "bm?" Thanks. 40 latitude, 70 longitude. Its an ideal track for a coastal storm for the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm actually not too concerned about a track that'll be too far west for us, so long as the models are reasonably accurate with their evolution of the kicker over the Great Lakes. The signal for this being wrapped up and very strong is really exciting for the dynamic potential. That will really help us even if the airmass is somewhat marginal along the coasts. I think the kicker, will likely nudge this further east too. Just showing why the ensemble mean is a little warm at 850mb 0C. It's not really based slp track the mean shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The previous run of the SREF's were too far out of range to discuss QPF comparisons to the new run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The previous run of the SREF's were too far out of range to discuss QPF comparisons to the new run. Disagree with this. They where pretty far se, new run is tuck into the coast more. And gets meaningful preciep back to eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The previous run of the SREF's were too far out of range to discuss QPF comparisons to the new run. Also remember that the SREFS are biased too far east at these ranges like the GFS since the ARWs are initialized off the GFS. Once the GFS comes west, so will the SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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