REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hopefully, the Euro continues with the closed low scenario right up to the storm. Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_96.gif With the air mass not being the best we need the storm to bomb out and close off at H5 whilst taking a BM to have all snow on LI which i think is quite possible. The EURO is just inside the BM so that is of good comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would listen to a few great posters on here like earth light before even watching the news weathermen / women I would listen to a few great posters on here like earth light before even watching the news weathermen / women Pretty sure the guy was a pro met not a weatherman. Just thought it odd to be jumping on the bandwagon so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 500mb starting to remind me of a January 26-27 2011 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Jan-11-500MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With the air mass not being the best we need the storm to bomb out and close off at H5 whilst taking a BM to have all snow on LI which i think is quite possible. The EURO is just inside the BM so that is of good comfort We usually do well here if the h500 closes off even if there is mixing issues at some point in the storm at coast. Still too soon for P-types and exact track. Christmas 2002 shows how a closed low can compensate for the lack of a high if things break just right. We need that closed low at the coast if this tracks too close to the coast like 2002 or other huggers. At least this time we don't have the primary cutting west of us. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2002/us1225.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We usually do well here if the h500 closes off even if there is mixing issues at some point in the storm at coast. Still too soon for P-types and exact track. Christmas 2002 shows how a closed low can compensate for the lack of a high if things break just right. We need that closed low at the coast if this tracks too close to the coast like 2002 or other huggers. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2002/us1225.php In general though chris i feel save for a christmas 2002 occurence that counting on a changeover back to +SN is always tough on LI. I do like that almost all models have the LP closing off for a good amount of time so that will only help the freezing line stay off the coast or atleast at bay depending on the track to be determined. Also the GL kicker if it does strengthen a bit it would throw a monkey wrench in there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 In general though chris i feel save for a christmas 2002 occurence that counting on a changeover back to +SN is always tough on LI. I do like that almost all models have the LP closing off for a good amount of time so that will only help the freezing line stay off the coast or atleast at bay depending on the track to be determined. Also the GL kicker if it does strengthen a bit it would throw a monkey wrench in there as wellright now that GL kicker is our saving grace else this would be an inside runner imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 In general though chris i feel save for a christmas 2002 occurence that counting on a changeover back to +SN is always tough on LI. I do like that almost all models have the LP closing off for a good amount of time so that will only help the freezing line stay off the coast or atleast at bay depending on the track to be determined. Also the GL kicker if it does strengthen a bit it would throw a monkey wrench in there as well I like the fact that 7 GEFS members are showing the low closing off like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One of the things discussed yesterday was the influence of the upstream northern shortwave In terms of inducing a sharper precip cutoff on the western side. Not saying this is what the NAM is depicting (could be right for the wrong reason), but it could play out that way - the fringe may be a precipitous cliff, something not all that uncommon. Thank you for coming in here and pointing these kind of things out...stuff like this is why amateurs like me keep coming here to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like the fact that 7 GEFS members are showing the low closing off like the Euro. f96.gif Driving Chris. Assume GEFS is NW of op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like the fact that 7 GEFS members are showing the low closing off like the Euro. f96.gif That is a very nice look thus far for the entire area chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Driving Chris. Assume GEFS is NW of op. There are several scenarios with this one at this point. Long Island could get a front end thump if the low huggs the coast before mixing and possibly going back to snow on the CCB as the 850 line collapses south into the closed low. The other is that the storm stays a little further east and is colder(snowier) if the kicker comes out faster high holds on longer. The worst scenario would be no close off and a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ens mean is pretty amped up, 980's was the pressure wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ens mean is pretty amped up, 980's was the pressure wowclosed h5 low showing yet on the means? Or still too much spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ens mean is pretty amped up, 980's was the pressure wow Dont have access to them allsnow. Where was the track in correlation to the benchmark? And assuming it closed off H5 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The track is inside the benchmark. 984 in the gulf of Maine. Only have access to surface regional maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 95 area gets a good front end dump then rain then back to snow. Nw jersey And eastern PA stay snow on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As far as major coastal storms are concerned, I have not seen such an impressive Euro Ensemble run at this range in a long while. 84-96 hour has a 1000mb low over OBX deepen to 988 inside the benchmark. On an ensemble mean of 51 members, extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 95 area gets a good front end dump then rain then back to snow. Nw jersey And eastern PA stay snow on the mean I'm not too concerned about where the 850 0c area gets on the ensembles. If the surface low tracks where they say it will there will be tremendous evap/dynam cooling with enhanced lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not too concerned about where the 850 0c area gets on the ensembles. If the surface low tracks where they say it will there will be tremendous evap/dynam cooling with enhanced lift. Thanks for this. Do you have qpf of the mean? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As far as major coastal storms are concerned, I have not seen such an impressive Euro Ensemble run at this range in a long while. 84-96 hour has a 1000mb low over OBX deepen to 988 inside the benchmark. On an ensemble mean of 51 members, extremely impressive. John thanks for dropping in. Consensus for areas N&W of I-95 currently is they stay all snow. The problem is going to be from NYC and points south and east to stay all snow or atleast cut down on the mixing. A deepening LP that closes off with a track around the BM in my eyes should negate any concerns for this as it "should" help pull as much cold air into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not too concerned about where the 850 0c area gets on the ensembles. If the surface low tracks where they say it will there will be tremendous evap/dynam cooling with enhanced lift. You just don't need this to kiss AC . Or we get cooked for a while . The dynamics would take over as the center is east of you. You do want it 50 miles off the coast to be safe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks for this. Do you have qpf of the mean? Thank you Over 1" for most people. Just eyeballing it and adding it from individual frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You just don't need this to kiss AC . Or we get cooked for a while . The dynamics would take over as the center is east of you. You do want it 50 miles off the coast to be safe . Well, yeah. Any time you start kissing the coast you're flooding warm air very near the storm at the very least into LI/NYC. No matter how cold the airmass is. But with the H5 track I am comfortable with this tracking 50-75 miles east of LBI and then near Block island, as long as the kicker isn't pressing on the CCB and shrinking the best lift area. Those are usually how we get our best CCB's anyway. Closed H5, surface low tucking in just S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think it's safe to say right now models are favoring an inside bm track, coastal areas will see thump of of snow to start, change to sleet and plain rain then back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, yeah. Any time you start kissing the coast you're flooding warm air very near the storm at the very least into LI/NYC. No matter how cold the airmass is. But with the H5 track I am comfortable with this tracking 50-75 miles east of LBI and then near Block island, as long as the kicker isn't pressing on the CCB and shrinking the best lift area. Those are usually how we get our best CCB's anyway. Closed H5, surface low tucking in just S of LI. You guys should go buy bread and milk . Think u get smashed , this is not 6 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think it's safe to say right now models are favoring an inside bm track, coastal areas will see thump of of snow to start, change to sleet and plain rain then back to snowNothing is safe at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You guys should go buy bread and milk . Think u get smashed , this is not 6 to 12 I've been preparing for weeks since some 15 year olds Facebook account told me to build a storm shelter based off the 370 hour ECM Control runs ensemble control runs means control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You guys should go buy bread and milk . Think u get smashed , this is not 6 to 12strongly agree about the 6-12 comment. Disagree about milk and bread....should buy beer and ice cream :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You guys should go buy bread and milk . Think u get smashed , this is not 6 to 12 Hell if tracks 50-75 miles off the coast to the BM even the coast would probably stay all snow with the dynamics in play and get slammed hard as well paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nothing is safe at 72 hours. Agreed. I think what isn't safe are the exact details of how the system shakes down. But the signal for the storm occurring is very strong right now, models are flying red flags like it's their job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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