Allsnow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 euro ens support the storm and is further east then op.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z Euro ensemble mean likes the JMA track also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Euro mean is faster than the JMA. At hour 180 it has the low off the Delmarva coast and by 192 it's well northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This storm has a kicker. Track further east looks more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z Canadian Ensembles are all over this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If this ends up like the weekend storm... It's good that this event has support and looks like it might have a chance of producing. As much as I would love this one to happen, I would be very cautious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If this ends up like the weekend storm... It's good that this event has support and looks like it might have a chance of producing. As much as I would love this one to happen, I would be very cautious... me too only because the sun angel is becoming higher and higher as the days go by and we all know what that means, at least for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Mt Holly has precip probs at 50% for Wednesday, that is pretty bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 me too only because the sun angel is becoming higher and higher as the days go by and we all know what that means, at least for the coast No affect until the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 me too only because the sun angel is becoming higher and higher as the days go by and we all know what that means, at least for the coast meh.....it can snow into april in this area, given the proper setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Everything looking on target so far with the 18z GFS. As long as that pig of a high pressure is over the plains it's going to force the energy south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That lead system for next Tuesday needs to get the heck out of the way. Don't want to see it blow up offshore and pull the baraclonic zone too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Everything looking on target so far with the 18z GFS. As long as that pig of a high pressure is over the plains it's going to force the energy south. ill tell you the setup so far does not look bad at all. lets see how she finishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 meh.....it can snow into april in this area, given the proper setup. Snowing and accumulating are 2 different things. We all know it can accumulate in April but its def much harder.. I've seen it snow in mid may up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 123 hours you can see the N/S trying to phase with the southern stream on 500mb vort map 132 it is amazing to see how much moisture is going to be with this storm, the GOM is seriously open for business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really hate that it trended stronger with that first northern stream wave that slides by. It's going to cause problems in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really hate that it trended stronger with that first northern stream wave that slides by. It's going to cause problems in the future. that I was going to post. don't want to be screwing the pooch already this early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This isn't going to end up the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This isn't going to end up the same as 12z. looks like it isn't going to make the turn and looks flatter thus far....going to see after the run finishes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 looks like it isn't going to make the turn and looks flatter thus far....going to see after the run finishes upwouldnt worry about an 18z gfs threat over 120 hours out...chances are its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What a joke, it has the low center near Key West, FL. Yeah....that's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Magically it's still going to try and turn the corner. Just going to come in a lot later if it does indeed make the full turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 There is so much chaos in this pattern that it's almost a guarantee that a solution 144 hours out will end up vastly different in actuality. Another vort is bound to appear and screw things up, one may blow up where it is now looking to be flat, etc. We had a good run of luck since New Year's, but it may be about to run out if the MJO heads back to phase 5/6 and we go into a Pacific Jet dominated pattern again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 There is so much chaos in this pattern that it's almost a guarantee that a solution 144 hours out will end up vastly different in actuality. Another vort is bound to appear and screw things up, one may blow up where it is now looking to be flat, etc. We had a good run of luck since New Year's, but it may be about to run out if the MJO heads back to phase 5/6 and we go into a Pacific Jet dominated pattern again.good post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 good post! brings up a good point. if winter ended this week i'd have no qualms because it was still pretty damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like this will pass off the VA/NC coast and OTS without much impact for our area this run. The heights just aren't building fast enough and the 500mb winds are pointed SW to NE in that general direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That ULL energy over the lakes is going to try and capture this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 misses the phase but was close. tell you what id rather be here right now than have those 30" bombs being thrown around like the storm or lack thereof for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Glancing blow. Another run, another outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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