yhbrooklyn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Maybe no one with access is awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 850's are a touch warm for coastal areas but any storm that is wrapped up like that would crash the 850's to and off the coast. VERY dynamic storm the EURO is showing. The ensembles and control of the EURO have been consistently east of the OP so dont be too worried with this tucked solution. Aloft it is a very powerful storm that is going to be throwing tons of moisture into the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's a coastal hugger...big hit for the interior nw of 195. Snow to rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Am I the only one seeing a different map on the Plymouth site and on instant maps? Here's the Plymouth site, which seems to be cooler... and further off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 850's are a touch warm for coastal areas but any storm that is wrapped up like that would crash the 850's to and off the coast. VERY dynamic storm the EURO is showing. The ensembles and control of the EURO have been consistently east of the OP so dont be too worried with this tucked solution. Aloft it is a very powerful storm that is going to be throwing tons of moisture into the cold air Music to those snow loving ears. maybe this be 982 off mantauk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It hugs the coast then slides underneath LI and ends up over the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 During the afternoon, people started Euro PBP at 5 after. The fact that no one is saying anything must be a sign that its a bad run. Don't think so, I don't have access but from what I've gathered this is a cold, wet QPF bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't think so, I don't have access but from what I've gathered this is a cold, wet QPF bomb Not for the coast. Snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It hugs the coast then slides underneath LI and ends up over the capeYes it gets kicked by the low over the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It hugs the coast then slides underneath LI and ends up over the cape Usually a storm that tracks just off the coast under LI hammers Jersey. I like it ! A wound up storm will be cold enough but has the chance to swap over to sleet for a bit mid flight and back to snow. I think this is the classic nor'easter we have been hoping for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sorry don't have more than this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow talk about borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you are using weatherbell, please ignore it's snow maps (especially east of i95) as it looks too warm for coastal areas to show 8-12"+ that it does show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow map..How to begin...From East Central PA down To south central PA to 15-20 inches.. NE PA is 9-12 inchesCentral NJ to NW NJ is 12-15 inches MD and N VA 15 + NYC & LI 10 + N DE 10 + Southern DE an inch or less Using Wx Bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you are using weatherbell, please ignore it's snow maps (especially east of i95) as it looks too warm for coastal areas to show 8-12"+ that it does show Its probably factoring in sleet for the coast. This is starting to look like an interior snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 great run, euro likely overdone and gfs is underamplified, split it 50/50 and that would be a great forecast for the entire coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't forget this little nugget from this afternoon's AFD... MODEL TEMP FIELDS AND GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM IN A STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SCENARIO WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its probably factoring in sleet for the coast. This is starting to look like an interior snowstorm. Too warm for sleet and yes to the second part (on the euro verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Too warm for sleet and yes to the second part (on the euro verbatim) What are the surface temps for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't forget this little nugget from this afternoon's AFD... MODEL TEMP FIELDS AND GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM IN A STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SCENARIO WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. With a track like the 0z euro took, the coast and most of if mot all of nyc would change over..period. now I'm not saying that's the final outcome though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What are the surface temps for the coast?Mid 30s at hrs 84, 90 and 96850s around 0 or just below at hr 84. + 2-5 at 90 and 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With a track like the 0z euro took, the coast and most of if mot all of nyc would change over..period. now I'm not saying that's the final outcome though Ill just say this b4 heading to bed Upton discounted using GFS & NAM temp fields and going with Euro op & puts high at 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ill just say this b4 heading to bed Upton discounted using GFS & NAM temp fields and going with Euro op & puts high at 31 That's fine. I'm just speaking about the Euro verbatim. I don't think this is the final solution but who knows. It's def plausable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro shows 6+ for NYC and more to the north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't forget this little nugget from this afternoon's AFD... MODEL TEMP FIELDS AND GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM IN A STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SCENARIO WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. Yup. It seems like people on the boards are quick to hype up a change to rain in scenarios when a strong low is forecast to come close to the coast. I really can't remember the last time anyone west of the East River had to worry about a changeover to rain and sleet to a lesser extent with a vertically stacked low just off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's a dynamic bomb, actual temperatures are likely to be colder than shown with heavy wet snow. The models are often too warm with these setups and get colder as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yup. It seems like people on the boards are quick to hype up a change to rain in scenarios when a strong low is forecast to come close to the coast. I really can't remember the last time anyone west of the East River had to worry about a changeover to rain and sleet to a lesser extent with a vertically stacked low just off the NJ coast. It's literally on the coast of nj before heading ene or ne towards the cape according to the Euro. No one is hyping up a change to rain. People are just saying what the Euro shows verbatim. NYC is very borderline. Parts of nyc could stay snow on this run. Look at the soundings when they are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's a dynamic bomb, actual temperatures are likely to be colder than shown with heavy wet snow. The models are often too warm with these setups and get colder as we get closer to the event. I agree. If you take a blend of the models. It will track a 985-992mb low inside or near the BM. This can change. Let's see what tomorrow shows us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's literally on the coast of nj before heading ene or ne towards the cape according to the Euro. No one is hyping up a change to rain. People are just saying what the Euro shows verbatim. NYC is very borderline. Parts of nyc could stay snow on this run. Look at the soundings when they are out. looks like there might be a big difference between places like EWR/TTN and NYC on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 looks like there might be a big difference between places like EWR/TTN and NYC on this runI haven't been able to examine the run yet myself.. But I have a sneaking suspicion that this is because the model sets up a coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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