jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the phased solution is pretty likely. What saves many from a too west track will be the kicker, hopefully that's still a player on future runs enough to force the trough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS is still OTS. H5 is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the phased solution is pretty likely. What saves many from a too west track will be the kicker, hopefully that's still a player on future runs enough to force the trough east.for a lot of people stating this was a poor feature, it could actually save many as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS looks like a step in the right direction, but maybe not quite there yet? The trough still looks a little too positively tilted and progressive. We need a quicker negative tilt and close-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not going to get it done, surface wise, but it was looked better aloft for sure. I don't like that GL s/w tho... I thought it was going to be more west, but ohh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yup...still a miss wide right...not too upset about that though at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like that the gfs is still further east because there's some wiggle room as the Nam was too far west and amped. This is still 3.5 days away so a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Upper MW short wave screws this up pretty bad on the GFS. Positively tilted trof all the way... Virtually no precip. Still a good amount of time for this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You really wana be S and E 3 days out on the GFS . The correction out of the Southern branch is W with this model . I Would feel uncomfortable if we were jackpotted tonite with the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not going to get it done, surface wise, but it was looked better aloft for sure. I don't like that GL s/w tho... I thought it was going to be more west, but ohh well. The Midwest trough is still very assertive. The GFS might be overdoing it as it often does with northern stream features, but we'll have to see what happens over the next 1-2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You really wana be S and E 3 days out on the GFS . The correction out of the Southern branch is W with this model . I Would feel uncomfortable if we were jackpotted tonite with the GFS . I support this...seen the trend n and w too many times on the gfs to buy this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like we're back to the good old days of the GFS being too far S&E and the NAM being too far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS took a step towards the NAM by slowing everything down. Either way, if the 0z CMC/EURO hold, the GFS is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Both NMM and ARW seemed to favor a further east track with the southern iteration of the low closer to the 500mb trough. The NAM is likely suffering from feedback issues still and is too warm/west. But those models were so much further south/east that they may have ended up just scrapers if pushed out further. Still a ways to go and the interaction with the kicker will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like we're back to the good old days of the GFS being too far S&E and the NAM being too far NW I must admit there's some comfort knowing this. The gfs did make small steps once again though so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM keys in on a piece of the PV that drops in and really amplifies everything on the backside. The GFS is focusing on the lead energy. Models are struggling with what piece of energy to phase and focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z ukie is a 985 over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z Ukmet looks good. BM track. Strong low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Need the other globals to remain on board tonight...ggem, ukie, euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Guessing the UKMET is only good for a Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Guessing the UKMET is only good for a Eastern areas. Probably. Although it's good that it's over the BM. A good sign because that there's some room for a westward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Guessing the UKMET is only good for a Eastern areas. Its 985 over the bm is great for everyone in the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm guessing a obx to bm track on the ukie?....classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm guessing a obx to bm track on the ukie?....classic! Yes! And somehow thats not good according to the two posters above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes! And somehow thats not good according to the two posters aboveUkmet is a textbook snowstorm track in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its 985 over the bm is great for everyone in the metro areaWhat constitutes the metro area to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes! And somehow thats not good according to the two posters above It's good, but it could get better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes! And somehow thats not good according to the two posters above cant blame them since we had two earlier season bm storms that fringed areas 30 miles nw of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 any word on the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z ukie is a 985 over the BM How do you know already? meteocentre isn't out yet and Plymouth only goes to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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