Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Those maps are pointless because they only run through hr 84 and that's when the heaviest banding is over us. I don't know why I am diagnosing the 84 hour NAM, but there is a dry slot @ 700mb about to kick in after this panel. Best snows would occur outside the metro. It's an interesting solution, but I find it very hard to believe that we'll see a system as amped as this. Also, you guys shouldn't be so stoked for this soln. Temps are warm for the coast and do include some mixing. A compromise between the 12z ECM/00z NAM would still be interesting. I feel like I need a shower now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a weenie overload... put it into perspective, its the NAM at 84hrs, if GFS, CMC, and Euro is off the coast this run will be a distant memory Yes very true, but also at 60 hrs, NAM is a bit more believable and reliable and it looks very promising in that position.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Definitely like the look of the NAM at 500 and 300mb. Good difluent flow at 500mb out ahead of the deepening upper low and a pretty decent jet couplet should really get VVs going. If the NAM is right, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this a night or day storm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't know why I am diagnosing the 84 hour NAM, but there is a dry slop about to kick in after this panel. It's an interesting solution, but I find it very hard to believe that we'll see a system as amped as this. Also, you guys shouldn't be so stoked for this soln. Temps are warm for the coast and do include some mixing. I feel like I need a shower now. f84.gif It's a given that the NAM won't be like this for now. IMO, I think that the SLP going from OBX to 75 miles east of ACY to 90 miles SE of MTP, LI is close to the final solution I have in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes very true, but also at 60 hrs, NAM is a bit more believable and reliable and it looks very promising in that position.. Great comment. For storms that hit here, I typically stop taking the NAM seriously after out 48-60. But I do like to see where it is in those earlier frames because it is more accurate. Using that logic here, we'd be in for a heck of a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't know why I am diagnosing the 84 hour NAM, but there is a dry slot @ 700mb about to kick in after this panel. Best snows would occur outside the metro. It's an interesting solution, but I find it very hard to believe that we'll see a system as amped as this. Also, you guys shouldn't be so stoked for this soln. Temps are warm for the coast and do include some mixing. A compromise between the 12z ECM/00z NAM would still be interesting. I feel like I need a shower now. f84.gif I don't live near the coast. Even though it's an outlier I would sign up for this any day and twice on Sunday. NW burbs JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I dont think models count snowpack as a factor but we would have more mixing than rain the NAM verbatim via low level cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It sucks being close to the coast for this, inland locations will have it made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM warms aloft, but stays cold at the surface for most... I don't believe the dry slot as it closed off it bit later and it closed off in a classic spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's nice to see the NAM on board with the big storm idea. Looks like the models are starting to converge on the idea of a big storm with high QPF amounts. No point in analyzing minor details at the this range, especially on the NAM. At this point I'm more worried about where the rain/snow line sets up rather than this one going out to sea or not strengthening enough. Someone is going to get a lot of snow out of this. I'd be concerned if I were east of I-95 about p-types. I'd be surprised if the GFS doesn't come on-board tonight. I like where we are at right now for I-95 and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It sucks being close to the coast for this, inland locations will have it made. If the NAM were to verify. The NAM overamped the past 2 storms last week and we all know that it was inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I dont think models count snowpack as a factor but we would have more mixing than rain the NAM verbatim via low level cold air I've always thought that to be way overrated. It could snow ridiculously heavy at 35 degrees and stick quickly if the right dynamics are in place and it snows heavily. It also can easily rain after being 10 degrees the day before with a 10-20" snowpack. As we know in our areas, things can change over very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I dont think models count snowpack as a factor but we would have more mixing than rain the NAM verbatim via low level cold air Yea it will be interesting, today's snow was a nice 2-3" refresher all the way down to the mid atlanitc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 300mb winds/heights @ 84 for the sake of posterity (Thanks to kpantz for pointing it out) If the 00z GFS/ECM look even close to this, then you the right to a minor freakout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My question is if this can be so amped that it'll hug the coast as it moves up the coast. If that happens then they'll be no snow around here even when things change over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 300mb winds/heights @ 84 for the sake of posterity. If the 00z GFS/ECM look even close to this, then you the right to a minor freakout. grearth 2014-02-09 22-23-22-66.png Yup - I pointed that out earlier. That and the difluent 500mb flow...and you'll see babies floating due to all the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My question is if this can be so amped that it'll hug the coast as it moves up the coast. If that happens then they'll be no snow around here even when things change over to rain. Im confident it wont be a coastal huger becasue of the SST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yup - I pointed that out earlier. That and the difluent 500mb flow...and you'll see babies floating due to all the lift. Yeah, I saw your post and did a double-take after seeing it. The dynamics would be insane to say the least on that beastly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Might still be suffering from feedback issues-the low center should be further south at 84 based on the upper air presentation (extremely impressive BTW). NAM is also at its often overamped stage here-the trough looks to be bodily headed ENE at the run. Hopefully the rest of tonight's and tomorrow's model runs keep up the trend from today. Still a lot that can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, I saw your post and did a double-take after seeing it. The dynamics would be insane to say the least on that beastly flow. It certainly explains the QPF on this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No model currently has a solid handle on this system attm. This could potentially be a beast and I am all in. Nam has a classic snow/sleet line over i95 during the height of the storm....seems whoever is just to the west of that feature makes out best. 0z will be telling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z GFS should be west, hard to tell yet but its a slower all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00Z GFS @HR 60: The phasing is starting over the Southern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No model currently has a solid handle on this system attm. This could potentially be a beast and I am all in. Nam has a classic snow/sleet line over i95 during the height of the storm....seems whoever is just to the west of that feature makes out best. 0z will be telling! Duno Ralph, Take a peak at the last 6 Euro ensemble runs and tell me the last time you saw a cluster that close . They are all advertising a big time system now the NAM is inside OBX the Euro just outside IMO , I think that`s the difference that can keep it all snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 5-7"/3 hr. type stuff... would be good times if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Duno Ralph, Take a peak at the last 6 Euro ensemble runs and tell me the last time you saw a cluster that close . They are all advertising a big time system now the NAM is inside OBX the Euro just outside IMO , I think that`s the difference that can keep it all snow . euro ens mean, yes, has been a consistent signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its coming more west then 18z. Phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Had no choice really...gfs is entering its wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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