IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If that ULL low over the PAC NW ends up being a bit further west it would benefit us by helping to actually amplify the ridge out west instead of flattening it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 While we're throwing out analogs how about this one? lol no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 While we're throwing out analogs how about this one? Eek a 96' reference. Brace yourself for flaming for that reference this far out . This storm is going to change plenty of times and the track isnt even important right now just the players on the field as we get closer. Btw yank i agree if that ULL in seattle is still there it may give this fits as far as an optimal phase should this get to that point as a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 While we're throwing out analogs how about this one? I'll help you find some analogues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If that ULL low over the PAC NW ends up being a bit further west it would benefit us by helping to actually amplify the ridge out west instead of flattening it. Not sure why you want this storm amplifying even more than this run. unless you like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not sure why you want this storm amplifying even more than this run. unless you like rain This is a good point and the confluence being so strong in SE canada and NE would argue a BM track not a tucked low track. This will change 10000x times but verbatim i cant see this going inland like that with that monsterous confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This is a good point and the confluence being so strong in SE canada and NE would argue a BM track not a tucked low track. This will change 10000x times but verbatim i cant see this going inland like that with that monsterous confluence Verbatim the confluence pulls out as the low approaches. The 50-50 low feature books it into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I like your enthusiasm but neither of those 2 analogs are even close, this is a thump to rainstorm verbatim for the most part for Philly & NYC. March 4-6 2001 analog? While we initially have a good HP to the North, there's no 50/50 to keep it in place so it slides into the doom area. The Low ends up on top of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I like your enthusiasm but neither of those 2 analogs are even close, this is a thump to rainstorm verbatim for the most part for Philly & NYC. March 4-6 2001 analog? While we initially have a good HP to the North, there's no 50/50 to keep it in place so it slides into the doom area. The Low ends up on top of NYC. Does it even matter this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Confluence? Please, point out the "confluence" here...There's a very transient 50/50 at 144 hours, but it is hauling ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Verbatim the confluence pulls out as the low approaches. The 50-50 low feature books it into the Atlantic. yeah, we've got no blocking. not really an ideal setup at all but i guess it could work if it's timed right. but we all know timing will not be correct 6-7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Eek a 96' reference. Brace yourself for flaming for that reference this far out . This storm is going to change plenty of times and the track isnt even important right now just the players on the field as we get closer. Btw yank i agree if that ULL in seattle is still there it may give this fits as far as an optimal phase should this get to that point as a threat I'm hard pressed to find a good analog at the moment. Anyway I can handle the bashing for the 96' reference. I take bashing here on a daily basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yank, March 01 had a really amazing block which forced the ULL to retrograde, this pattern and that are probably total opposites. Not sure why you would even mention it as an analog...Take a look at March 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm hard pressed to find a good analog at the moment. Anyway I can handle the bashing for the 96' reference. I take bashing here on a daily basis. Thumbs up for taking the beatings like a man! me personally i think we should put this threat on the back burner and still concentrate on what we can possibly make of the weekend threat and come back to this monday. By that time were around 100 hours out and can maybe start taking a closer look at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hey is the setup a slam dunk? Not by any means, but it's exciting to see the players on the field for a big hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This looks like a textbook Apps, W NE/PA hit...I-95 would need to get really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Honestly we should all be happy even if we get no more snow for the rest of the winter. Everyone is above average, some well above average. There's also no point discussing details of this storm over a week out especially considering the debacle with this weekend's storm, it's just foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's probably better that we don't have great blocking here. This coming up the coast is a bit reliant on the high retreating some I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Honestly we should all be happy even if we get no more snow for the rest of the winter. Everyone is above average, some well above average. There's also no point discussing details of this storm over a week out especially considering the debacle with this weekend's storm, it's just foolish. Well totally giving up on the weekend storm would be foolish considering the NAM and the GFS to some degree actually showed better spacing between lead wave and 2nd one and other factors in the weekend storm. Lets come back monday to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z JMA has this down for a blizzard for anyone west of eastern Long Island with 1.5-2.0 qpf area wide and a 981mb low centered over the eastern end of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This looks like a textbook Apps, W NE/PA hit...I-95 would need to get really lucky. 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z JMA has this down for a blizzard for anyone west of eastern Long Island with 1.5-2.0 qpf area wide and a 981mb low centered over the eastern end of Long Island. For when? SV only goes out to hour 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM have good agreement, but too far out, stale past bomb like 2/3 event, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 For when? SV only goes out to hour 192. Accuweather updates earlier. Check again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If you want to find an analog, look at 1994. Not sure why people are still looking at any other year. Yesterday's event was a Feb. 23, 1994 analog. This one is similar to Feb. 11, 1994. It's not exact, but it's close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Accuweather updates earlier. Check again. No I mean SV only runs the JMA up to hour 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 7 days out Just based off the overall teleconnections/pattern setup. I'm just saying it is more favorable for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just based off the overall teleconnections/pattern setup. I'm just saying it is more favorable for them. Disagree. The entire pattern is a Feb. 1994 one and all our events have worked out. This next one looks like a Feb. 11, 1994 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 No I mean SV only runs the JMA up to hour 192. Then SV isn't updated because the updated JMA shows a blizzard from hour 168-192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Then SV isn't updated because the updated JMA shows a blizzard from hour 168-192. Yup, you're right. Now that's a true Miller A. About as classic of track as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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