+SNfreak21 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This storm looks like 1/25/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Could tell from HR60 that this was going to be a better run at H5. Trough is much sharper and dug a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam is surprising close to the reliable models even at 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Verbatim the NAM is snow to rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 the amount of energy rounding the base at the trough at 500mb is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Verbatim the NAM is snow to rain for most. Actually, it's snow to rain for SE NJ. Everyone else is experiencing Very Heavy Wet Snow. Also, remember that the NAM has a warm bias, so it could actually be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What a bomb on the NAM. Looks like it was going to close off at H5 in the next panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What a bomb on the NAM. Looks like it was going to close off at H5 in the next panel. yea everybody except for SE NJ is going to be getting hammered from this with very heavy wet snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Verbatim the NAM is snow to rain for most.By most you mean only Long Island. And... I highly doubt anyone changes over in that setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 CMC : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 By most you mean only Long Island. And... I highly doubt anyone changes over in that setup . NYC, South and East is above 0c at 850mb verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I should mention that the NAM is focusing on the wrong low, hence why coastal is weaker on the NAM than the GGEM. So yeah, the GGEM isn't so drunk after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NYC, South and East is above 0c at 850mb verbatim. that thing closes off at H5 with a track just inside the BM rain wont be an issue on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM blows up the last vort. It's not going to be rain for more than 75 percent of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 that thing closes off at H5 with a track just inside the BM rain wont be an issue on LI I know. Just stating a point, that verbatim, it would change to rain for NYC S&E on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NYC, South and East is above 0c at 850mb verbatim. It Is Snow Verbatim. Learn how to read the soudnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In a later panel, perhaps... here's 84 at KNYC I know. Just stating a point, that verbatim, it would change to rain for NYC S&E on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I know. Just stating a point, that verbatim, it would change to rain for NYC S&E on the NAM. Surface looks below freezing though FWIW. Trends are better than yesterday no doubt, even though the high is retreating there's still enough there to provide cold air and there's better northern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NYC, South and East is above 0c at 850mb verbatim. It's actually south of the area per SV maps. If it continued bombing out and moving NNE would pull down whatever cold air that's available as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM 84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A low moving NNE from Cape May, NJ would flip most to rain if the NAM were to continue past 84hrs. Not that the NAM will likely verify anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I know. Just stating a point, that verbatim, it would change to rain for NYC S&E on the NAM. The NAM is often too amplified at the end of its range and a blowing up low would likely wrap cold air in close to the center. I'm not worried about much rain unless the low either doesn't intensify much or tracks along a coastal hugger path. If the storm evolves like the Euro today, we all will be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hopefully this storm works out for Thu, because after the storm passes the Pacific jet looks to get real ugly real fast. PV sets up over Alaska, and the flow is zonal right off the Pacific thereafter on the Euro. The GGEM however keeps a more amplified flow and colder temps from Canada. the euro is always too fast with these warmer solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 With main surface low placement, the NAM is likely struggling with dubious vorts or convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM looks better at 500mb than at the surface, typical, and it is out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A low moving NNE from Cape May, NJ would flip most to rain if the NAM were to continue past 84hrs. Not that the NAM will likely verify anyway. Yeah Way too early to worry about specifics on the nam. Just be glad its similar to the ggem/euro with track and intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 my biggest worry is that the system wraps up too quickly over the southern states and we get dryslotting/mixing like jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM looks great at the surface and H5. If you don't think so you need to look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good to see the SREF mean this far out riding with the Euro and ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 93' is such a rare occurrence. that storm is on top of NESIS for a reason and probably will be on there for a while longer Totally different setup as well, people just love to throw dates around without even looking at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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