JetsPens87 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hopefully this storm works out for Thu, because after the storm passes the Pacific jet looks to get real ugly real fast. PV sets up over Alaska, and the flow is zonal right off the Pacific thereafter on the Euro. The GGEM however keeps a more amplified flow and colder temps from Canada. Hopefully this storm works out for Thu, because after the storm passes the Pacific jet looks to get real ugly real fast. PV sets up over Alaska, and the flow is zonal right off the Pacific thereafter on the Euro. The GGEM however keeps a more amplified flow and colder temps from Canada. Many times we do get some of our bigger storms on the bookends of pattern changes, which is why I enjoy this potential even moreso right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The kicker depending on its exact placement could and will have a multitude of different effects on the coastal. Strictly speaking from the precip shield standpoint, the kicker is THE reason why there is no more NWrly development of that shield. That's really a double edged sword-the kicker keeps this from being potentially an inland runner and too warm for most, while at the same time it makes the snow shield very compact. I guess beggars can't be choosers in a pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think it's about time we warn the public of this rapidly approaching threat and post some snow maps to Facebook and Twitter. What say you? Ha! Given the continuity and certainty. No doubt! 50mm maps to start, per John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Reminds me of the February 2010 Snowicane just without the epic blocking. Ugh. This storm (the "snowicane") is my worst nightmare and keeps coming up. We had about 4 inches of paste then over 3" of rain while areas just to the south (within 10-15 miles of me) had in excess of 2 feet. Hopefully this is not such an extreme scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 South Carolina road trip. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=645394705507791&set=pcb.645394778841117&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would buy what the Euro and GGEM were showing right now if it were Tuesday, but 4 days is like an eternity when it comes to marginal setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sorry but is this more a Wednesday into Thursday event or Thursday into friday??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 South Carolina road trip. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=645394705507791&set=pcb.645394778841117&type=1&theater That looks like a 4 to maybe even 5 sigma event (18-24" in upstate sc), so chances of that happening are, well, remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That looks like a 4 to maybe even 5 sigma event (18-24" in upstate sc), so chances of that happening are, well, remote. Looking at the soundings it may be counting sleet-ZR as snow. Most of the subfreezing air there looks like its under 950 mb to the surface. The euro keeps the surface below freezing but warms 850 mb in the interior SE with a strong low level CAD signature up against the front of the Apps and piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If this storm were to happen as shown by the GGEM/Euro, NYC could be within a foot or so of breaking the 95-96 snow record with a good 3-4 weeks left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 every day there is a different ao nao forecast...The ao is all over the place but the nao is steady positive...the next storm probably won't be a bomb so so speak but another 1-2" liquid storm that could be snow or snow to mix to ice/rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Everyone that is worried about coastal precip types look back to 11/12. A strong low in the vicinity of the bench mark is going to create its own cold air on its western side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 euro ens mean is beautiful….great track and temps wow 992 over the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Best Euro Ens run I have seen this season..surface low goes OBX to 40/70 with plenty of QPF from 90-108 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Cutoff issues or can that be seen on the Ens? Best Euro Ens run I have seen this season..surface low goes OBX to 40/70 with plenty of QPF from 90-108 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Cutoff issues or can that be seen on the Ens? No cutoff issues on the ECMWF ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Best Euro Ens run I have seen this season..surface low goes OBX to 40/70 with plenty of QPF from 90-108 hr. It actually looks better than op verbatim. 2m temps are colder than there is heavier precip for I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If this storm were to happen as shown by the GGEM/Euro, NYC could be within a foot or so of breaking the 95-96 snow record with a good 3-4 weeks left. That would require getting 20 inches with this storm...I thought the Euro was only about 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ugh. This storm (the "snowicane") is my worst nightmare and keeps coming up. We had about 4 inches of paste then over 3" of rain while areas just to the south (within 10-15 miles of me) had in excess of 2 feet. Hopefully this is not such an extreme scenario. That storm dumped 30-36" in most of Orange County.. Highly doubt this would compare especially with the possibility of NW fringing. That storm also ran up through LI and into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What a beast on the Euro means. I smell 30" Control run maps by tonight all over Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HPC : AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA BROAD AND SLOWLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM SHOULD GUARANTEE ASTRONGER SYSTEM WITH TIME, BUT ITS PROGRESSION HINTS THAT A FASTERPROGRESSION WITH THIS DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MORE LIKELY. THISHAS BEEN BORNE OUT IN THE ECMWF TRENDS SINCE ITS 00Z RUN, THOUGHIT HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALOFT. THE 12Z GFSSHOWS A MENAGERIE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYESFROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD, WHICHCAN EXPLAIN ITS QUICKER PROGRESSION. WITH CONVERGING GUIDANCEALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, BELIEVE A NON-GFS COMPROMISE IS THE BESTCOURSE OF ACTION FOR THE TIME BEING, PREFERRED WITH AVERAGECONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM is looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does the precip enter the area at Wednesday Night? (According to the EURO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Even worse. have seen METS talking about this Wed. being a 93' redux! surreal! Even if a phased storm occurs, the synoptic setup is quite different from that in 1993. Moreover, 1993 was a triple-phased storm (Arctic, polar, and subtropical jet streams). It was a rare event. March 1993 should not be referenced as an analog case. If one wants to point to the GGEM's solution, one can refer to a bombogenesis event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 21z wed NAM has it snowing in dca and baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Even if a phased storm occurs, the synoptic setup is quite different from that in 1993. Moreover, 1993 was a triple-phased storm (Arctic, polar, and subtropical jet streams). It was a rare event. March 1993 should not be referenced as an analog case. If one wants to point to the GGEM's solution, one can refer to a bombogenesis event. 93' is such a rare occurrence. that storm is on top of NESIS for a reason and probably will be on there for a while longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 hr 81 steady snow in the metro area….dca crew getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 good lord the NAM is wrapped up already at 84. this thing bombs out like that id highly doubt there would be mixing down to the coast. pretty much a paste bomb for all if you extrapolate this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 hr 84 heavy snow….1000 mb 100 miles east of delmarva…se jersey is raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Even if a phased storm occurs, the synoptic setup is quite different from that in 1993. Moreover, 1993 was a triple-phased storm (Arctic, polar, and subtropical jet streams). It was a rare event. March 1993 should not be referenced as an analog case. If one wants to point to the GGEM's solution, one can refer to a bombogenesis event. Surreal was meant to relfect 1000% scarcasm on my part of the ignorance of the analogue by pro met who obviously dont understand notion of the rare triple phase that 93' was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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