IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For whatever reason the most intense QPF stays on the east side of the storm. 6-8" for most at 10:1. QPF is over 0.75" for most and 1" plus east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For whatever reason the most intense QPF stays on the east side of the storm. 6-8" for most at 10:1. QPF is over 0.75" for most and 1" plus east. It'll correct itself soon anyway. What's great is that we are finally capturing a storm that 4 days out. The best part about this is that we aren't in the highest potential jackpot yet. This is starting to look a whole lot more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It'll correct itself soon anyway. What's great is that we are finally capturing a storm that 4 days out. The best part about this is that we aren't in the highest potential jackpot yet. This is starting to look a whole lot more interesting. Still time to go on this-I wouldn't get excited for another 24 hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 984 inside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For whatever reason the most intense QPF stays on the east side of the storm. 6-8" for most at 10:1. QPF is over 0.75" for most and 1" plus east. I'm sure it's a very heavy paste snow. I wouldn't expect over 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Inside the bench mark scares me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Really big improvements 12z Euro holds onto the high pressure longer over New England and begins closing off at H500 near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Inside the bench mark scares me If the low's bombing out it will keep everything cold much closer to the low center than a weaker storm. I wouldn't be worried for NYC unless the low was over Montauk or so. I believe the 2/25/10 storm which bombed out and gave Central Park over 20" came ashore in Suffolk County. So did 12/30/00 which was snow into western Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 984 inside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If anything the Euro has validated that the GGEM isn't completely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 10+ on the real snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 All u want is continuity. When the track starts to settle down like this. Then all that's left is finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If the low's bombing out it will keep everything cold much closer to the low center than a weaker storm. I wouldn't be worried for NYC unless the low was over Montauk or so. I believe the 2/25/10 storm which bombed out and gave Central Park over 20" came ashore in Suffolk County. So did 12/30/00 which was snow into western Suffolk. so as it stands now it looks like the coast mixes is that what your saying??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 if a low bombs out 25mb+ from OBX to BM I doubt anyone would have any mixing issues down to the coast. it would be so tightly wound up/closed off it would spread the wealth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12Z JMA has it in a perfect position for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 so as it stands now it looks like the coast mixes is that what your saying??? A dynamic storm would give most of the area heavy wet snow...Eastern LI is usually a tough call. Otherwise it's too early to talk about precipitation type and be exact about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 oh oh...this will cause another media frenzy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If the low's bombing out it will keep everything cold much closer to the low center than a weaker storm. I wouldn't be worried for NYC unless the low was over Montauk or so. I believe the 2/25/10 storm which bombed out and gave Central Park over 20" came ashore in Suffolk County. So did 12/30/00 which was snow into western Suffolk. Didn't it come ashore near Boston? The upper low just sat south of LI and captured the surface low. Once the surface low was moving wnw then west over mass LI changed to snow and we got dumped on as well...not the 20.9" by saw but 10+. The storm ended up looping back south then east right underneath LI before parking itself. Then it slowly dissipated as it drifted ene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well this has certainly increased our appetites for the runs later on tonight, hasn't it. I think the GGEM is still way too extreme, but the Euro suggests a strong consensus may be in the offing the next day or two. The thing to me that gets my attention on the Euro, is the closing off of H5. Euro is a bit later with it than a few of the other models, but it's suggestion can't be ignored at its face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A question for the mets? Why does it seem that the heaviest QPF is on the east side of the low as compared to the western side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12Z JMA has it in a perfect position for everyone.The JMA is barely 0.50" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A question for the mets? Why does it seem that the heaviest QPF is on the east side of the low as compared to the western side? I heard a met say it's convective feedback but I have no idea and I don't really wanna start with the whole convective feedback thing bc I am certainly not a pro and I would like to hear another met validate that before I even take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A question for the mets? Why does it seem that the heaviest QPF is on the east side of the low as compared to the western side? This is a good question. A 984 low inside the BM would seemingly have an expansive precip field, even on the West side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The JMA is barely 0.25" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 One of the better graphics I've seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The euro drops 6-10" of snowfall for the area. Jackpot in Monmouth county, obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The high pressure holding on longer this run over Northern New England really helped us out with the snowier Euro BM track. It even tries to close off at 500 mb as the low is heading for the BM. Very nice improvements from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Agreed, that's a pretty bad post. To be fair, though, the 40/70 benchmark has generally been discussed from NE's point of view, so a tightly wound benchmark system could well have a tight/unsavory precip cutoff in the NYC metro region. This! Dynamic storms inside (not a coastal hugger though) the benchmark are always the best for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 .25" was a typo I quickly corrected the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Inside the bench mark scares me It shouldn't. With this upper level evolution, if the storm takes a track inside the benchmark it is likely going to be decently wrapped up and the resulting lift and dynamics will be sufficient for snow away from the immediate coast (probably there too). The one wild card still is the shortwave over the Great Lakes. Not only does that act as a kicker, but it totally kills the cyclones development on the NW side. No CCB, no dynamics, nothing interesting at all if that feature trends stronger or farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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