earthlight Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We are going to need a strong coastal low with good dynamics in order to see noteworthy accumulating snow from this setup. I like the some of the GEFS members from 00 and 06z were showing CCB development over our area. We don't get good snow in a setup like this with marginal precipitation and weak dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We are going to need a strong coastal low with good dynamics in order to see noteworthy accumulating snow from this setup. I like the some of the GEFS members from 00 and 06z were showing CCB development over our area. We don't get good snow in a setup like this with marginal precipitation and weak dynamics. agreed. posted the same on the prior page. You want the Euro pressure in between the GFS/Euro track... Anxious for the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z UKMET shows a stronger ridge over Western Canada. This helps the northern stream s/w dig more. This was closer to 12z NAM solution. The 12z GFS has the kicker coming in faster knocking these heights down. Preventing more digging and phasing: 12z UKMET 12z NAM 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 12z UKMET is a little east of the 0z Euro, but it may its SE bias with southern stream lows...not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GGEM going to be a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is a thread the needle event for most. Marginal temps, track right along the coast, quick hitter. 12z gfs and euro will be telling. Ralph i don't think you mentioned this being a quick hitter enough yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Closed H5 on the Navgem. That's a paste bomb woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Closed H5 on the Ggem. That's a paste bomb woof Assuming little snow at the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Assuming little snow at the coast? No. Ptype maps all snow for 95. Mix along the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol GGEM maps are Ccb ownage. Weenie run 974 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Happy Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GGEM deepens to 962mb just inside of 40/70 BM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GGEM :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Happy Sunday MOTHER OF GOD! Where are the posters from this morning saying, definitively, this can't be big? smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 There are 4 or 5 GEFS members from the new 12z run which are leaning heavy left of the mean and show sub 990mb low pressure centers within the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If that happens I will retire from the board and never come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The surface low on the GGEM goes down to 961mb just inside the benchmark and tucks in Southeast of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's great & all if this was a Sunday storm but setup is 4 days away talk snowstorm then or at least wait 24 hrs out before you start honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well that escalated quickly. I really wish there wasn't that low in the great lakes though, and maybe a high around there instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well that escalated quickly. I really wish there wasn't that low in the great lakes though, and maybe a high around there instead. If there's a good phase, this can ramp up quickly as it comes up the coast. We also would need enough of a kicker to keep the track offshore. I'm more optimistic for places over NNJ/Hudson Valley than I am for areas like mine for this, but a wound-up enough low on a good track would be good for all. A lot of possibilities still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well that escalated quickly. I really wish there wasn't that low in the great lakes though, and maybe a high around there instead. exactly - have to realize that the placement of the HP is an important ingredient in any major snowstorm around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 im still amazed at how tight the precip shield is again on western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Canadian is all about getting H500 to close off and capture the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ohboy ohboy. If the King shows a bomb, this board gonna go off the chart. That CMC is some of the best porn Ive seen in a long time. Sweet Jesus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Canadian is all about getting H500 to close off and capture the surface low. f108.gif Surface is warm, but with a dynamic storm like that the precipitation would most likely be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Guys that solution is what it would take to snow all the way to the coast. Just wait for a little continuity. The euro control has been strong all weekend but west. Let's see how the euro handles the slp speed thru the lakes. That's the piece that holds the center close or kicks it east just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 im still amazed at how tight the precip shield is again on western side. If you get a low in the 960's (which is almost hard to type) there will be a severe cut off with this thing. For folks a bit more west, they almost need a weaker low to get in on significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The surface low on the GGEM goes down to 961mb just inside the benchmark and tucks in Southeast of Long Island. Wow 961...that would be stronger than the snowacane And that track is right along the sst line that i liked for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 im still amazed at how tight the precip shield is again on western side. Verbatim the flow isn't able to wrap very far around the western side of the low. There's a CCB because the 500mb low closes off, but it's a relatively small system overall because in part it's being pushed east by the Midwest trough. That's why I somewhat doubt the massively blown up solutions but we'll see what happens. Still a few days left for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS are not stellar, but NW of the Op. This is getting rather interesting crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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