Blizzardo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lets all hope this Miller A hits the home run and puts down 12-18 for the area. This winter will go down in history. I think this is going to be one of our last shots for a little bomb. Time is starting to wind down as we head into the 2nd half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Gfs is coming west with this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Kind of like this look at 63... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Major ice issues for Atl this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I seriously doubt anyone sees ice with this storm...will b rain or snow in the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Major ice issues for Atl this run At least they know how to handle that, as we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 At 84, looking at the GFS and knowing where the Euro Ens are at, I'd be watching every run big time today if I'm in this forum's area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I seriously doubt anyone sees ice with this storm...will b rain or snow in the end... I'm talking about Atlanta GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm talking about Atlanta GA My bad, thought u wrote 'all'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's pretty much OTS, but 'back in the day' I remember we loved when the Euro was wound up and the GFS was SE --- and that was in more of the Miller A type situation (I distinctly remember this with the Boxing Day Blizzard especitally) NOT comparing this storm to that, but the sentiment of having a wound up Euro and SE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Gfs takes a 996 just outside the benchmark. Temps would have bee fine. Just not sharp enough. It's very close to a big storm impacting our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS looks like it is deepening the kicker too quickly entering the Midwest so the the coastal gets going too far east. None of the other guidance has such a wound up low entering the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Gfs takes a 996 just outside the benchmark. Temps would have bee fine. Just not sharp enough. It's very close to a big storm impacting our area Nice seeing the cold temps for all, but 50 miles West and precip is an issue. Have to hope for a wound up solution further West for a CCB. Hoping we all win here and that seems to be the way... Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS looks like it is deepening the kicker too quickly entering the Midwest so the the coastal gets going too far east. None of the other guidance has such a wound up low entering the GL. That HP kept feeding the cold this run, like to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS looks like it is deepening the kicker too quickly entering the Midwest so the the coastal gets going too far east. None of the other guidance has such a wound up low entering the GL. Agreed, and this run was very close to bringing a hit for our region. The strength of the kicker in the GL area will determine how close the storm will be to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That HP kept feeding the cold this run, like to see that I am skeptical of the kicker coming so strong since the 12z NAM looks very close to the 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yea the GFS looks funky with that early strengthening of the Low in the Gulf which is shunting it OTS. No other model is doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's pretty much OTS, but 'back in the day' I remember we loved when the Euro was wound up and the GFS was SE --- and that was in more of the Miller A type situation (I distinctly remember this with the Boxing Day Blizzard especitally) NOT comparing this storm to that, but the sentiment of having a wound up Euro and SE GFS. With respect to the Boxing Day Blizzard, the ECMWF and all other guidance abandoned the idea. The GFS led the way in abruptly returning to a big storm idea for several runs before the other guidance "rediscovered" the storm. The shift on the GFS was so sudden that HPC (now WPC) speculated that it had been suffering from feedback issues and dismissed it for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Agreed, and this run was very close to bringing a hit for our region. The speed which the high is exiting the coast ahead of the storm makes me nervous for 95 east. I would like to see the 12z euro hold onto the HP longer over New England so the low can scoot out closer to the BM instead of closer to the coast on the 0z ensembles and OP. The 12z NAM looked much like the 0z euro ensemble mean at the end of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The gfs being more OTS makes me think the Euro is too far west, I like the compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This was such a pleasant discussion with knowledgable members and avoided all the crap we see everyday. Great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 With respect to the Boxing Day Blizzard, the ECMWF and all other guidance abandoned the idea. The GFS led the way in abruptly returning to a big storm idea for several runs before the other guidance "rediscovered" the storm. The shift on the GFS was so sudden that HPC (now WPC) speculated that it had been suffering from feedback issues and dismissed it for a time. I remember it vividly Don. Was at lunch on Xmas eve and reading about Convective Feedback issues. Perphaps not the perfect example because it was so wacky, but the idea of the GFS SE and Euro being wound up makes me feel good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 One thing is becoming apparent this will not be a major snowstorm here - so we can take that off the table - without a fresh cold HP to the north any track too close to the coast will produce snow to start then a changeover to mix/rain. Any track a little too far off the coast reduces the amount of precip significantly - the placement of the HP is critical in this situation the perfect track is still no good without a HP feeding in the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The speed which the high is exiting the coast ahead of the storm makes me nervous for 95 east. I would like to see the 12z euro hold onto the HP longer over New England so the low can scoot out closer to the BM instead of closer to the coast on the 0z ensembles and OP. The 12z NAM looked much like the 0z euro ensemble mean at the end of the 12z run. I think the overall track will be in between the GFS/Euro. We need to monitor the strength of the Great Lakes kicker. If this feature is less amped expect a solution closer to the coast, if it is more amped like the gfs showed in this run the low will be shunted ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 One thing is becoming apparent this will not be a major snowstorm here - so we can take that off the table - without a fresh cold HP to the north any track too close to the coast will produce snow to start then a changeover to mix/rain. Any track a little too far off the coast reduces the amount of precip significantly - the placement of the HP is critical in this situation 100% disagree. We can't take anything off the table at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 One thing is becoming apparent this will not be a major snowstorm here - so we can take that off the table - without a fresh cold HP to the north any track too close to the coast will produce snow to start then a changeover to mix/rain. Any track a little too far off the coast reduces the amount of precip significantly - the placement of the HP is critical in this situation The lack of blocking up north allows the hp to escape. Inland areas as usual will do fine. The coast will have problems with staying all snow, because of the position of the high will bring in slightly warmer air with the east/east-northeast winds. If however the storm rapidly develops the isallobaric component of the wind will gradually change surface winds to a more northerly component helping to keep colder air in for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 100% disagree. We can't take anything off the table at this time I know that for a fact at this particular table - anyways this could all change if a HP shows up in the right spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 100% disagree. We can't take anything off the table at this time Agree, if that was so apparent still a few days out then we wouldn't have most of our snowstorms this season and events like Boxing Day would've never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ukmet is pretty good. Track over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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