Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6z NAM/DGEX would be a classic storm Gotta love the trends last night. I like that the EURO trended much stronger with the Low. If it tracks 50-75 miles East Philly/NYC gets a damn good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 These guys have nailed the Low positions of the last few storms (especially the last 2) days out. I love what I see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 These guys have nailed the Low positions of the last few storms (especially the last 2) days out. I love what I see here. 1004 mb slp? They are obviously not as enthusiastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The southern stream comes out pretty amped the day before and the SE Ridge gets a little too pumped beforeit turns the corner north. This pattern can't really handle amplitude especially when there is no decent block near the Davis Strait and the PNA is negative. EDH101-96.gif[/ Having that trough retrograde into Alaska this week hasn't helped us . It's just hurt a nice ridge axis position that we had all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 0z Euro is further west, because is slower with low over Midwest/Great Lakes than the other models and it's own ensembles. The Euro has been too amplified, because how poorly it's handled kicker energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ens would give us some front end snows then to rain along the coast. Nw areas are prob 90% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6Z GFS has moved west http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 1004 mb slp? They are obviously not as enthusiastic.That's why I said position and not strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WPC is Bullish on the mid - late week EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 149 AM EST SUN FEB 09 2014 VALID 12Z WED FEB 12 2014 - 12Z SUN FEB 16 2014 THE INLAND TRANSLATION OF PACIFIC AND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES LEADS INTO EMERGING CENTRAL TO ERN US WINTER LOW THREATS. THE DETAILS OF SRN STREAM SYSTEMS ALOFT AND ANY EVENTUAL NRN STREAM INTERACTION HAS RECENTLY LEAD TO QUITE AN UNCERTAIN ARRAY OF LOW TRACK OPTIONS RANGING FROM SUPPRESSED STREAKS OF WINTER PCPN AND SRN RAINS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WELL DEVELOPED SERN TO EAST COAST STORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND/OR TRENDS INDICATE THE INGREDIENTS FOR POTENTIALLY WELL ORGANIZED WINTER PRECIPITATION THREATS REMAINS WED-FRI INLAND TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF FRONTAL/LOW FOCUSED PCPN SHIELDS. RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN MOST SUPPORTIVE WITH LIFTING A COASTAL LOW UP OFF THE ERN SEABOARD COMPARED TO CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A SMALLER BUT SLOWLY INCREASING NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SEEMS REASONABLY FAVORABLE IF YOU CAN GET PAST IMPULSE WAVELENGTH SPACING AND STREAM INTERACTION UNCERTAINTIES. OVERALL AMID UNCERTAINTY...WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN MOST CLOSELY DERIVED FROM AN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WPC/NDFD CONTINUITY BLEND. WPC GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A QUITE WET NWRN US NEXT WEEK...AN ORGANIZED SRN TO EAST COAST LOW THREAT WED TO FRI...AND A NRN US TIER CLIPPER LOW/MODEST SNOW SWATH THU/FRI WITH A SUBSEQUENT COLD AIRMASS SURGE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN US IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM PASSAGE. SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The OP euro may be too far west with the low inland, but even the ensemble track would be warmer than we would like to see east of 95 as the ensemble mean has a decent SE Ridge ahead of the storm. We need a stronger low to produce a CCB. It will be harder for everything to come together in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This looks like a quick mover this morning now as well. Without much blocking this thing zips on out in a hurry. Wonder if people are still thinking this is a blockbuster because I'm not really seeing it. Avg miller a at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This looks like a quick mover this morning now as well. Without much blocking this thing zips on out in a hurry. Wonder if people are still thinking this is a blockbuster because I'm not really seeing it. Avg miller a at best. EURO op showed an inch of QPF plus this is coming straight out of the gulf. Moisture won't be an issue IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This looks like a quick mover this morning now as well. Without much blocking this thing zips on out in a hurry. Wonder if people are still thinking this is a blockbuster because I'm not really seeing it. Avg miller a at best. The yanksfan27 storm isnt looking all that great right now i must say ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The yanksfan27 storm isnt looking all that great right now i must say ralphit looks ok but not a blockbuster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The yanksfan27 storm isnt looking all that great right now i must say ralphThis is a useless post. There is still a tremendous amount of potential here for most of us. Read the WPC and Mount Holly discussions. Look at some of the model solutions and trending. IMO this has a chance to be quite memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it looks ok but not a blockbuster Not sure I understand this. An inch of QPF would yield a heck of a snow storm if the track waivers a bit. Yes, inland areas are favored right now, but with such dry air is place prior and the models still waivering anything can happen at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure I understand this. An inch of QPF would yield a heck of a snow storm if the track waivers a bit. Yes, inland areas are favored right now, but with such dry air is place prior and the models still waivering anything can happen at this point.I define blockbuster as widespread 1 foot or greater totals. Still a little early to toss around totals but I don't see a blockbuster unless this stalls which it doesn't look like will happen without a block in place. This really is a thread the needle type setup with confluence pulling out along with hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I define blockbuster as widespread 1 foot or greater totals. Still a little early to toss around totals but I don't see a blockbuster unless this stalls which it doesn't look like will happen without a block in place. This really is a thread the needle type setup with confluence pulling out along with hp. Last night's EURO dropped 12-18" of snow for Western & NNW PA & up through W NE, it definitely had some spunk to it. The storm trended stronger overnight, take a look at the 6z DGEX for an example of the storms potential. It is certainly a thread the needle, but it could still be a 8-14" for people especially the burbs if it works out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it looks ok but not a blockbuster why does practically every storm around here have to have the potential to be a blockbuster and some folks trying t do analysis on what needs to happen for it to be a blockbuster ?- there have only been 36 "blockbusters" 12 inches or more in NYC since 1869 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does Long Island still have a chance for 6-8 inches if everything could work out right ? The only thing I do not like is the high position not being classic, but can we pull of 31-32.5 degree snow for most of the event ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does Long Island still have a chance for 6-8 inches if everything could work out right ? The only thing I do not like is the high position not being classic, but can we pull of 31-32.5 degree snow for most of the event ?? where are you getting this potential for 6 - 8 inches ? why don't we just stick to analysing what the guidance is currently showing instead of trying to wishcast an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Strange upton really lowered precip chances since a few days ago. With the low looking like a lock (not precip type) you would think they would be raising it not lowering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The look of the nam at hr. 84 has a sloppy appearance to it. It looks like it wants to phase. The good news is that it's the nam at 84. We just need the northern stream energy to dig further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The look of the nam at hr. 84 has a sloppy appearance to it. It looks like it wants to phase. The good news is that it's the nam at 84. We just need the northern stream energy to dig further. Compared to the 06z run, which extrapolated on the DGEX showed a big hit, it looks more amplified and organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Earthlight, Good to see you posting in here. Can you tell us your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The look of the nam at hr. 84 has a sloppy appearance to it. It looks like it wants to phase. The good news is that it's the nam at 84. We just need the northern stream energy to dig further. Good call yesterday with the lesser amounts for today. I'm starting to think the euro is looking good with its idea on the coast for Wed.Without a high sitting to our north , I don't see how the coast doesn't change over . I didn't weight the GFS that high because its just having problems over the last 24 hours with it , plus its natural error Is to come N and W as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good call yesterday with the lesser amounts for today. I'm starting to think the euro is looking good with its idea on the coast for Wed.Without a high sitting to our north , I don't see how the coast doesn't change over . I didn't weight the GFS that high because its just having problems over the last 24 hours with it , plus its natural error Is to come N and W as we get closer. The airmass is quite marginal, the coast will need a lot to go right for there to be a lot of snow for them. A track offshore and a winding-up low may be enough, since cold air will be generated on the west side, but a hugger track means a big snow event well inland, maybe for the Appalachians for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is a thread the needle event for most. Marginal temps, track right along the coast, quick hitter. 12z gfs and euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good call yesterday with the lesser amounts for today. I'm starting to think the euro is looking good with its idea on the coast for Wed.Without a high sitting to our north , I don't see how the coast doesn't change over . I didn't weight the GFS that high because its just having problems over the last 24 hours with it , plus its natural error Is to come N and W as we get closer. With the high moving to the east IMO the coast will have no problem changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Compared to the 06z run, which extrapolated on the DGEX showed a big hit, it looks more amplified and organized. Yes it's more organized. The gfs should be running so lets see what it brings with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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