IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hour 126 our storm system is beginning to take shape over the deep south. Some weak southern stream energy out ahead of it gets squashed and punted OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think we have a real danger of this one being a big hit for the southeast and possibly mid-atlantic before slipping OTS. Most of the GEFS members showed this, a long with the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z Euro has a more phased system than the GFS. Going to be a big hit. Arctic high pressure in firm control over northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really wish that low in the PAC NW would go away. It's flattening out the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 850mb low to Kentucky, secondary low to the NC coast. Hmmmm where have we seen that one before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hour 162 getting destroyed. Heavy wet snow area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Low tucked right into the coast. What a paste bomb for the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hour 162 getting destroyed. Heavy wet snow area wide. Sounds like quite a bit earlier than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Low tucked right into the coast. What a paste bomb for the NW burbs.Isn't it a bomb for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Right as the coastal reaches our latitude it hits a brick wall from the confluence to the north associated with the 1036mb+ high to the northeast. You can see the isobars compressing southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really wish that low in the PAC NW would go away. It's flattening out the western ridge. Been saying that for days but I have been told numerous times that it isn't the biggest reason why the ridge flattens. Apparently it's more due to what's going on in the western Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Low tucked right into the coast. What a paste bomb for the NW burbs. Yup. The 850 mB temps favor I-95 and points west more, except for Southern NYC/LI and the Jersey Shore. Looks more like Ice/Rain for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Isn't it a bomb for everyone? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Isn't it a bomb for everyone? Well the track of the low is right over Nassau County so hypothetically the city and LI would flip to rain before dry slotting, but this is more than we need to look at for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Again it's nice to see and the major models are all picking it up, but it's still in la la land so odds of this occurring are low. I do like the AO taking a spike negative around the time this storm occurs, as most big storms have occurred with a -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Big hit for VA, into DC and Baltimore headed towards us. Looks like up to 12" DC. And 6"+ inches Baltimore to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Tracks right over eastern New England and then up into the Gulf of Maine. Does anyone have a good source for the 500mb maps from February 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Again it's nice to see and the major models are all picking it up, but it's still in la la land so odds of this occurring are low. I do like the AO taking a spike negative around the time this storm occurs, as most big storms have occurred with a -AO. There's a nice 50-50 feature as the low starts to amplify its way up the coast. But this winter, this is a long way away and will likely change. EDIT-it slides out as the low amplifies, so it easily verbatim could cut far enough west to give many slop/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Tracks right over eastern New England and then up into the Gulf of Maine. Does anyone have a good source for the 500mb maps from February 2010? Use this: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It may not be the 30" that a lot of us were hoping for but it's certainly 12"+ for a large area. Still a long way to go here. The low up near Seattle irks me. This could have really amplified if it wasn't for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Use this: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010.html Thanks, okay none of those analogs really work for this unless the low closes off over the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It may not be the 30" that a lot of us were hoping for but it's certainly 12"+ for a large area. Still a long way to go here. The low up near Seattle irks me. This could have really amplified if it wasn't for that. Wouldn't the upper level flow from that low raise the heights? Also, I'm fine with 12"+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hate to say it but this one kinda looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Wouldn't the upper level flow from that low raise the heights? Also, I'm fine with 12"+ of snow. It's flattening the western ridge right as the southern stream wave is attempting to amplify up the coast. I think it's a lot of the blame for why a lot of ensemble members are showing this slipping OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Non of you from the Poconos East from hour 168 and 174 would want this to verify as 850`s roar to plus 5 . I suggest non of you take this day 7 stuff seriously , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks, okay none of those analogs really work for this unless the low closes off over the Ohio Valley. This site provides surface and various height charts for most major storms since 93. One of many good sources of info, but seems to be the simplest when looking for quick analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Non of you from the Poconos East from hour 168 and 174 would want this to verify as 850`s roar to plus 5 . I suggest non of you take this day 7 stuff seriously , Exactly this is all just noise, there's still the very real threat of getting a light to moderate event this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well the track of the low is right over Nassau County so hypothetically the city and LI would flip to rain before dry slotting, but this is more than we need to look at for now. Yes, way to far out for temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 While we're throwing out analogs how about this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's flattening the western ridge right as the southern stream wave is attempting to amplify up the coast. I think it's a lot of the blame for why a lot of ensemble members are showing this slipping OTS. I'm looking at the Pacific now. Actually, that upper low could conceivably help to pump up a western ridge. I think the flatness results from there being just too much going on, one system after another, in the fast flow. In order for the ridge to build, there has to be enough room. Same for a HECS, there just has not been enough room and I'm not sure there will be. But it will be really interesting to see what the impacts of the ridging near Greenland may be. WX/PT Again there's more to it than just the NW Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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