NEXtreme Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's too early to pin down the R/S line from this far out in time. But this system has plenty of Gulf moisture to work with. Another question at this point is how close does the kicker coming into the Lakes get and how does it affect the track. North32America_msl_96.gif North32America_msl_120.gif Thank you... It's crazy people are focusing on R/S line and actual temps this far out..lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 He'd be cursing everybody who disagrees with him. well, my assumption would be, based on my knowledge of DT, that most who disagree with him would be people who knew less than him or didnt fall into his max snowfall range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 No wonder the kids are so misinformed. correct - it could sleet with surface above zero. not ZR....but for the sake of his argument it has no bearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 He'd be cursing everybody who disagrees with him. its also because he is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 well, my assumption would be, based on my knowledge of DT, that most who disagree with him would be people who knew less than him or didnt fall into his max snowfall range. Well I do remember him calling Joe B an idiot for thinking the snowstorm in early January would come north towards NYC when he thought otherwise as he kept insisting it would exit the mid Atlantic...We all know who got owned there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ok put a met tag under your name if you know it all, your right,this happened in 12/29/12, mostly rain event on coast with below 0C 850scoast That was because a primary low initially warmed the 925-surface layer...in this case you'd likely have NE surface winds and dynamic cooling as its more a low originating down south...as the Euro shows now this would likely be all snow most areas as the T/Td spread at least near NYC is roughly 35/23 when the precipitation moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 DT flips more than a Chinese gymnast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ens are closer to the coast and have more qpf. We start as snow then go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That was because a primary low initially warmed the 925-surface layer...in this case you'd likely have NE surface winds and dynamic cooling as its more a low originating down south...as the Euro shows now this would likely be all snow most areas as the T/Td spread at least near NYC is roughly 35/23 when the precipitation moves in. That right it was minus 1 at 850 and 33 on Long Island and it rained. A ft fell in CT. I remember the day before the NAM caught the 925s it disturbed the column and it was over. This time it's modeled the column is cool. The BL is warm due to light QPF , but looking at these details 120 hours is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ens are closer to the coast and have more qpf. We start as snow then go to rain Thanks man. Is that for the entire region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks man. Is that for the entire region? Nw areas prob stay 90% snow but they warm at the tail end also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nw areas prob stay 90% snow but they warm at the tail end also. much appreciated. plenty of time here one way or the other. appreciate the pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Something s never change.. 5 days away and arguing about rain..snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z Euro Ensembles ( from DT )"bings the Low UP the coast and ON the coast .. NONE of this out to sea ****all of NC gos over to rain on the euro ensembles and does all of central and eastern VA EAST of the Blue Ridge. But from ROA to Winchseter to Frdereick MD ... the Shenandoah valley - stays all snowDCA BWI gets several inches of snow goes over to rain as does all of NJ DEL NYC most fo CT and eastern mass" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nw areas prob stay 90% snow but they warm at the tail end also. Yeah, the ensemble mean is more like the UKMET with a weaker kicker west of Chicago so the low tracks further west near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah, the ensemble mean is more like the UKMET with a weaker kicker west of Chicago so the low tracks further west near the coast. GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif GZ_PN_120_0000.gif 540-546 dm in the middle of February usually correlates to 28F-33F, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah, the ensemble mean is more like the UKMET with a weaker kicker west of Chicago so the low tracks further west near the coast. GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif GZ_PN_120_0000.gif We are going to need the surface low to bomb out around the Delmarva for the coast to stay snow. Eastern PA and Nw jersey look to be the best spot for accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like a few of the ensemble members are pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I stand by what I said earlier. Paste bomb NW of 95 and slop to rain for the coast. Under warning criteria snows outside of the far NW. Ratios will be poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I stand by what I said earlier. Paste bomb NW of 95 and slop to rain for the coast. Under warning criteria snows outside of the far NW. Ratios will be poor. That your final call from the guy with the crystal ball??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That your final call from the guy with the crystal ball??? No that's my call given the current model consciences. We need a full blown bombing miller A to get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Given how the models have flopped I guess anything's possible, especially 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Given how the models have flopped I guess anything's possible, especially 5 days out. It's not 5 days away anymore, based on the EURO. It's more like 4 to 4.5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 No that's my call given the current model consensus. We need a full blown bombing miller A to get more. Fixed. If your going to do pbp analysis atleast spell right yank, your lack of detail is insulting! Remember this is the 13-14 winter where models have been changing their minds just as much as brett favre did about his retirement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Fixed. If your going to do pbp analysis atleast spell right yank, your lack of detail is insulting! Remember this is the 13-14 winter where models have been changing their minds just as much as brett favre did about his retirement What are you talking about? I haven't given any PBP today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Mount holly THE 1200 UTC ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN BRINGING US A NORTHEASTER FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THE 1200 UTC GFS AFFECTS OUR REGION WITH A COASTAL STORM AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW MAY APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE THE COAST TO CAUSE A MIX TO RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN OUR REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OF COURSE, IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS 4 TO 5 DAYS IN ADVANCE. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's not 5 days away anymore, based on the EURO. It's more like 4 to 4.5 days away. 4.5 or 5 days is almost the same thing, I see the biggest impacts around 120 hrs so it is around 5 days even if the setup begins a day or two earlier. Bottom line is we need to see consistency through at least Monday to get into specific detail. I'd give this system a 30% chance of being some kind of snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z Euro Ensembles ( from DT ) "bings the Low UP the coast and ON the coast .. NONE of this out to sea **** all of NC gos over to rain on the euro ensembles and does all of central and eastern VA EAST of the Blue Ridge. But from ROA to Winchseter to Frdereick MD ... the Shenandoah valley - stays all snow DCA BWI gets several inches of snow goes over to rain as does all of NJ DEL NYC most fo CT and eastern mass" Should move this to the vendor thread. No one can say for sure what will happen 5 days away given the current pattern this winter. Post like really clogged up the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What are you talking about? I haven't given any PBP today. I was just kidding i know you havent i just wanted to poke fun. I do understand the models "currently" are leaning towards an I-95 N&W storm and rain for the coast. however any confident call for a final outcome this early factoring in all of the models collective performances this year outside of 48 hrs its way too early. I am not saying your going to be wrong as your clearly not weather-illiterate but just dont dive too much into it until monday/ tuesday bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 In the month where historically the most snow falls and inside a snowy Winter. With a track from OBX northeast Lol At all the towel throwers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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