Mikehobbyst Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 If I was forced to guess snow amounts towards VD Day, I would say 4-6 inches, with some cold antecedent air left over to get the job done, ending as drizzle once towards the end. Looks like a 32-33 degree snow, so more paste cement. I think we are done with the champagne powder snow, which we got to enjoy from some of the earlier events... I like the dry fluffy snow much better, than the cement that has a creepy icy sheen in the light. Let's get one cutter before 2/28 to try to eliminate some of this icy snow pack. Soft snow that does not weigh stuff down, now we can not get that too easy.... Maybe we get 1 inch of powder one last time Monday morning, to temporarily cover the ice pack, with at least a soft cover over this mess. The dam freezing rain really ruined the wet snow pack that was at least soft until Wednesday. I want a Lake Cutter and will be patient even if it waits till 2/25 or later..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ggem is slop to rain...this one not looking really good at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ggem is slop to rain...this one not looking really good at the moment. Haha and this weekends storm looked awesome from this range and POOF! My suggestion with all the S/W's in the flow to not start taking this threat seriously until monday at the very earliest. This threat is 6 days away and i can almost guarantee the mean outcome as of now will be nowhere near the same as we get inside 24 hours. Save yourselves from run-to-run dissapointment or excitement by stepping away from taking them seriously for another 48-72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We wont have a good idea until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Haha and this weekends storm looked awesome from this range and POOF! My suggestion with all the S/W's in the flow to not start taking this threat seriously until monday at the very earliest. This threat is 6 days away and i can almost guarantee the mean outcome as of now will be nowhere near the same as we get inside 24 hours. Save yourselves from run-to-run dissapointment or excitement by stepping away from taking them seriously for another 48-72 hoursthis threat has been 6 days away for a while now it seems :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 this threat has been 6 days away for a while now it seems :-/ Yea haha. Im gonna name this storm the " yanks lovestruck storm " since hes apparently in love with this threat? Nice title that fits the bill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We wont have a good idea until Monday. No, we have a good idea right now. marignal airmass in mass as a sloppy SLP comes up the coast with a Great Lakes low approaching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 No, we have a good idea right now. marignal airmass in mass as a sloppy SLP comes up the coast with a Great Lakes low approaching... Still 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Still 5 days away Yes, but the over all players are there. Temps will be an issue here with that low in the Great Lakes. What we need is a strong storm to bring down the heavy rates to keep the BL cool enough for wet snow. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ironically we have good agreement among guidance that this will be slop (some snow to rain ) at best for the big cities. Gonna need some major changes to see something different. We have a stale departing high pressure, a slp right on the coast, poor confluence, thicknesses of 1000-500mb unsupportive of much snow, etc. Could it change? I suppose....but its going to take a major shift. Baby steps not gonna cut it with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ironically we have good agreement among guidance that this will be slop (some snow to rain ) at best for the big cities. Gonna need some major changes to see something different. We have a stale departing high pressure, a slp right on the coast, poor confluence, thicknesses of 1000-500mb unsupportive of much snow, etc. Could it change? I suppose....but its going to take a major shift. Baby steps not gonna cut it with this one. Exactly. There is a consensus forming here. Also, if it's coming down lightly in the middle of the day with marginal temps. I wouldn't expect much accumulation on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Lots of impulses in the PAC approaching, models are going to have a tough time. Although, if todays models suite hold severe, then may they havec a good idea. I think we can get one more big snowstorm this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ironically we have good agreement among guidance that this will be slop (some snow to rain ) at best for the big cities. Gonna need some major changes to see something different. We have a stale departing high pressure, a slp right on the coast, poor confluence, thicknesses of 1000-500mb unsupportive of much snow, etc. Could it change? I suppose....but its going to take a major shift. Baby steps not gonna cut it with this one. Verbatim so far yes, we'd need a row boat over a shovel with this storm but the way these models have been this year wouldnt put it past it to come with a BM solution with this storm. Patience everyone and enjoy the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Exactly. There is a consensus forming here. Also, if it's coming down lightly in the middle of the day with marginal temps. I wouldn't expect much accumulation on the roads.if the low in the GL region was replaced by fresh hp we would probably have been in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 if the low in the GL region was replaced by fresh hp we would probably have been in business. The LP in the GL typically is the kiss of death for snow threats east of I-95. However being 6 days out its going to change quite a bit without a doubt ralph, dont sweat it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This isn't going to be a snowstorm for the coast. Accept it and move on. But just inland things look good for a paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The LP in the GL typically is the kiss of death for snow threats east of I-95. However being 6 days out its going to change quite a bit without a doubt ralph, dont sweat it at this point. Too early at hour 120 the Euro has the SLP in SD The GFS into the GL . There`s you`re difference . Give it 2 days .Fight tomorrow`s fight 1 st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Too early at hour 120 the Euro has the SLP in SD The GFS into the GL . There`s you`re difference . Give it 2 days .Fight tomorrow`s fight 1 st Yup. 6 days ago the weekend storm was modeled differently than the eventual outcome. Its WAY to early to be talking R/S lines or where this storm is going to be along the coast for certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Too early at hour 120 the Euro has the SLP in SD The GFS into the GL . There`s you`re difference . Give it 2 days .Fight tomorrow`s fight 1 st Isn't the euro warm with light precip? Did the ensembles show any more precip than the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Isn't the euro warm with light precip? Did the ensembles show any more precip than the op? The Euro is warm because of light Precip ,850`s NE wind and track are fine . But BL will stink w .3 to .4 I can only see ensemble track and 850`s . I just cant wrap my head around anything outside 96 hours and sometimes either can the models , so I am punting until tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The Euro is warm because of light Precip ,850`s NE wind and track are fine . But BL will stink w .3 to .4 I can only see ensemble track and 850`s . I just cant wrap my head around anything outside 96 hours and sometimes either can the models , so I am punting until tomorrowI already booted this one out of the end zone...there will be no return :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I already booted this one out of the end zone...there will be no return :-) Ralph, Don't way too early . I laugh at PBP at 160 hours , but I laugh at giving up at halftime .Long way to go , even its not what we want the solution is far from final IMO . Look at tomrrw now . SREF GFS 4KNAM all .25 at 15 to 1 . Forecast yesterday was for flurries . I am usually not optimistic but at this range just hang . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I find it unreal how there has been so many definitive statements this morning about this storm. From it won't snow at the immediate coast, accept it and move on ..to the is a slop storm bc we have model consensus. Are you all for real???? This storm is many days from now. This storm could be a rain storm, a snow storm, a slop storm or maybe there's no storm. Has everyone not learned anything this winter?? The long and medium ranges have been highly inaccurate and the storms have been making major trends even inside 48 hrs. I find the majority of posts over the last 24 hrs disturbing. A few of these posts are coming from good posters too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ralph, Don't way too early . I laugh at PBP at 160 hours , but I laugh at giving up at halftime .Long way to go , even its not what we want the solution is far from final IMO . Look at tomrrw now . SREF GFS 4KNAM all .25 at 15 to 1 . Forecast yesterday was for flurries . I am usually not optimistic but at this range just hang . PERFECT statement paul. We've gone from nothing to .25 @15:1 for tommorow. Furthermore look at what the models have been like outside of the short range? I wouldnt think about starting to throw the white flag until monday the absolute earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This isn't going to be a snowstorm for the coast. Accept it and move on. But just inland things look good for a paste bomb. wth..you are better than this. Also you could be right...but it's Feb 8th in the morning...why would you say something so ridiculous and definitive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ralph, Don't way too early . I laugh at PBP at 160 hours , but I laugh at giving up at halftime .Long way to go , even its not what we want the solution is far from final IMO . Look at tomrrw now . SREF GFS 4KNAM all .25 at 15 to 1 . Forecast yesterday was for flurries . I am usually not optimistic but at this range just hang . fine...I will wait until I see a few more runs before I kickoff but unless I start to see some bigtime changes I am going to have to boot it outta the end zone.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I find it unreal how there has been so many definitive statements this morning about this storm. From it won't snow at the immediate coast, accept it and move on ..to the is a slop storm bc we have model consensus. Are you all for real???? This storm is many days from now. This storm could be a rain storm, a snow storm, a slop storm or maybe there's no storm. Has everyone not learned anything this winter?? The long and medium ranges have been highly inaccurate and the storms have been making major trends even inside 48 hrs. I find the majority of posts over the last 24 hrs disturbing. A few of these posts are coming from good posters too. nothing is defintive, but look @ the players on the field. When you put the modelology aside, and starting doing the meteorology, you can see this won't be an all snow event for some people in the region. Poort antedecent airmass, Great Lakes low, sloppy SLP..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 wth..you are better than this. Also you could be right...but it's Feb 8th in the morning...why would you say something so ridiculous and definitive?Have to agree with you, yanks you are better than this being 6 days out. You should be able to temper these early emotions not give up so easily. C'mon yank bet back to being reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Have to agree with you, yanks you are better than this being 6 days out. You should be able to temper these early emotions not give up so easily. C'mon yank bet back to being reasonable He didn't give up..He said this is a paste bomb inland and rain for the coast so definitely that I was shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 nothing is defintive, but look @ the players on the field. When you put the modelology aside, and starting doing the meteorology, you can see this won't be an all snow event for some people in the region. Poort antedecent airmass, Great Lakes low, sloppy SLP..... oh I agree meteorologically. And as modeled right now this can't be argued. We are 6 days out. You sir are a great poster so why do you buy that the players on the field will 100% be in the locations the models have them currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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